TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 8:05 AM PT · Pre-market
Tech leads the bounce on Intel foundry validation and SpaceX IPO halo. Energy is the lone laggard as oil prices pull back from Iran conflict highs. Sector data based on pre-market ETF estimates as of 8:05 AM PT. ~est.
Markets enter Thursday’s session in recovery mode after six brutal days of selling that took SPY from ~$760 to a low of $720. The primary macro driver today is a collision between two competing narratives: persistent inflation and historic capital market excitement. Yesterday’s hot CPI reading kept the 10-year Treasury yield pinned at a 16-month high of 4.69%, compressing equity valuations broadly. But that selling pressure is being offset this morning by the electrifying reality that SpaceX — the most valuable private company in history — will price its IPO after tonight’s close at $135/share, implying a $1.75 trillion market cap and a $75 billion raise that would dwarf Saudi Aramco’s 2019 debut. This is not just a space story; the raw scale of institutional demand for SPCX is drawing capital back into risk assets broadly.
On the macro calendar, this morning’s 8:30 AM ET PPI release for May 2026 is the session’s primary binary risk event. Consensus expects headline PPI at +0.7% MoM and core PPI at +0.4% MoM — hot readings that could re-ignite the rate-hike-fear trade and pressure today’s relief bounce. However, with markets already pricing elevated inflation risk after yesterday’s CPI, a print near consensus may be “buy the news.” A cooler-than-expected number would sharply accelerate the bounce and extend the tech rally. A hotter print could quickly reverse pre-market gains and test yesterday’s lows.
Geopolitically, US military strikes on Iran overnight sent oil spiking early in the session, but prices have since pulled back as markets interpreted the “completed strikes” announcement as a possible opening for resumed peace negotiations. WTI has retreated to $89.25 (−0.87%) and Brent to $92.05 (−1.13%), removing one inflationary headwind. The semiconductor and AI infrastructure complex leads today’s recovery — Intel’s foundry validation from Google and Nvidia, Marvell’s earnings momentum, and the space sector’s SpaceX IPO halo are combining to put technology squarely back at the center of the growth narrative.
The regime reads BULLISH this morning — S&P 500 futures are running approximately +1.1%, Nasdaq futures +1.9%, and Dow futures +0.8% heading into the open. Filtering long setups first today. This is a bounce-from-fear session: pre-market gaps are broadly green, semiconductor and space names are the clear leadership, and SpaceX IPO excitement is adding a narrative tailwind that pure macro models can’t fully price. That said, both SPY and QQQ remain in confirmed 4-hour bearish structures — this bounce occurs within a downtrend, not above it. Names with hard catalysts are the priority; avoid pure index-beta plays until both indices reclaim their wick sweep levels.
SPY — 4h Technical Outlook
Cautious Long · Bounce in DowntrendPrice: $731.15 (pre-mkt +$8.27, +1.14%) · Open $730.03 · Low $729.70
Structure: Bearish CHoCH confirmed. Price broke the lower trendline near May 28–29, then accelerated with high-volume red candles on June 9–10 — a climax-selling pattern. Today’s green candle attempts recovery from the PDL area (~$720–722). The BOS on the rally to $760 has been fully negated; price is now pressing against the lower half of the prior range.
QQQ — 4h Technical Outlook
Cautious Long · Needs $707 ReclaimPrice: $702.86 (pre-mkt +$13.13, +1.90%) · Open $701.46 · Low $700.00
Structure: CHoCH + BOS both bearish. QQQ printed a wick sweep at 735.15 in early June, then broke the lower trendline with a BOS. The June 9–10 selloff saw a high-volume capitulation low near $686.37. Today’s +1.90% gap up is the strongest pre-market day in over a week but must first reclaim $707–708 (former PDL) to be sustainable. The “Long Lifeline” zone annotated on the chart (~$700) is being tested as support this morning.
Futures ~est. based on SPY/QQQ pre-market levels. Oil retreating as US-Iran strike described as “completed.” Gold softening marginally. VIX down sharply from yesterday’s close of 22.22 — fear premium unwinding. Sources: Barchart, Reuters, Schwab, TheStreet (Jun 11 2026).
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM |
PPI — May 2026 (MoM)
Producer Price Index, headline and core. First major inflation print after yesterday’s hot CPI. A print near or above consensus (+0.7% headline, +0.4% core) keeps rate-hike fears alive and tests this morning’s bounce. A cool miss could accelerate the rally and relieve bond market pressure. Watch the 10Y yield reaction at 8:30 ET — it is the key tell.
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+0.7% MoM Core: +0.4% MoM |
+0.5% MoM Core: +0.3% |
HIGH |
| After Close |
SpaceX (SPCX) IPO Pricing
SpaceX expected to price shares at $135, implying a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75B raise. This will be the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29B 2019 flotation. Shares list on Nasdaq as SPCX tomorrow (June 12). While not a traditional economic release, institutional capital allocation around this event is a primary market driver today.
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$135/share $75B raise |
Private since 2002 | HIGH |
Oracle beat on EPS and total revenue but missed on cloud revenue — the single metric the market was watching most closely. To finance its accelerating data center build-out, Oracle simultaneously announced a $40 billion capital raise via debt and equity, which is creating significant dilution concern. The reaction is a textbook “beat on the wrong line” print: the AI infrastructure capex story remains intact, but the cloud growth shortfall + dilutive raise is triggering a risk-off reaction in ORCL specifically. Watch for sector read-through: the ORCL miss may create a short-lived headwind for broader cloud names at the open, though Intel/Marvell are running on independent catalysts. Not in our movers list — no gap-up setup.
No major BMO earnings scheduled for June 11, 2026.
SpaceX is pricing tonight at $135/share for an implied $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise — the largest IPO ever recorded. The deal has drawn massive institutional demand, including orders from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. Elon Musk retains controlling ownership. SPCX lists on Nasdaq tomorrow (June 12). The gravity of this event is pulling an entire ecosystem of space infrastructure stocks — RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL — along for the ride. Expect the space sector to be front-page news through Friday’s listing day.
Following Wednesday’s hot CPI print that triggered a sharp equities selloff, the PPI report is the next inflation checkpoint. Consensus expects headline PPI at +0.7% MoM (core +0.4% MoM). The 10-year yield at 4.69% — a 16-month high — is already pricing in persistent inflation. This release will set the tone for the opening 30 minutes; a cool print could trigger an accelerated breakout while a hot number would test whether today’s gap-up is genuine accumulation or a gap-and-crap setup.
The US military completed fresh strikes on Iran overnight after President Trump accused Tehran of delaying interim peace negotiations. Markets initially sold off on the news, but futures are recovering as investors interpret the “completed strikes” language as a potential opening for talks to resume. Oil prices — WTI $89.25 (−0.87%), Brent $92.05 (−1.13%) — are pulling back, removing an inflationary headwind. Any fresh escalation could quickly reverse this morning’s equity recovery, so the geopolitical channel remains an active risk to monitor through the session.
Google has placed an order to manufacture more than 3 million Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) at Intel’s foundry for 2028 production. Simultaneously, Nvidia is actively evaluating Intel’s advanced 18A process node for a future multi-chip processor design — no order placed yet, but the validation itself is market-moving. These two developments represent dual endorsement from the world’s largest AI infrastructure buyers of Intel’s foundry-as-a-service ambitions. INTC was already +11% on June 8 when the Google TPU story broke; today’s pre-market move reflects continuation as traders absorb the full significance of the Nvidia evaluation news alongside INTC’s broader foundry-credibility re-rating.
Intel’s foundry division has been the company’s highest-risk strategic bet — spending billions to catch TSMC while simultaneously bleeding market share in CPUs. The Google TPU order and Nvidia 18A evaluation change the calculus: if two of the most demanding, process-technology-critical customers are routing work to Intel’s fab, the foundry narrative shifts from “turnaround story” to “validated infrastructure play.” Institutional money that was on the sidelines waiting for foundry proof-of-concept now has a catalyst to re-enter. The continuation from June 8 into June 11 suggests conviction buying rather than a single-day event trade.
VWAP anchor: ~$105.00–$106.00 (expected based on overnight price action). Opening range to establish: $106.00–$108.50 on the 5-minute chart. 20-day MA: ~$100 (~est.). 50-day MA: ~$95 (~est.). ATR(14): $9.03 — a full ATR move targets $116+. Bias: LONG on any 5-min opening range break above $108.50. VWAP hold at $105+ confirms strength.
Support: $104.00 (pre-mkt low zone), $100.00 (psychological / prior consolidation). Resistance: $110.00 (round number), $111.50 (June 8 intraday high — the key breakout level), $115.00 (ATR target).
Sign of Strength (SOS) — the June 8 surge on massive volume followed by this continuation gap on strong relative volume suggests institutional accumulation with markup beginning; watch for a Spring retest of $104 before the next leg if the open fades.
Marvell reported Q1 FY2027 earnings on May 27, delivering EPS of $0.80 vs. $0.75 consensus estimate and revenue of $2.418 billion (+28% year-over-year). Q2 FY2027 guidance was set at $2.7 billion at the midpoint — implying 35% year-over-year revenue growth — well above Street expectations. The AI custom ASIC segment, driven by hyperscaler demand for Marvell-designed silicon, continues to be the primary growth engine. Today’s continuation gap reflects the broader AI semiconductor narrative re-asserting itself after the June 2–10 market selloff, with Marvell’s strong earnings results providing fundamental justification for re-entry.
Marvell is one of the cleanest AI silicon plays in the market — it designs custom ASICs for Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, insulating it from the commodity chip cycle while capturing the full bespoke-AI-chip margin premium. The May 27 earnings beat, combined with 35% revenue growth guidance, is the kind of fundamental anchor that encourages institutional buying on weakness. The June selloff likely flushed out weak hands; today’s gap back toward the earnings-day price levels suggests long funds are re-accumulating. With 4.32× pre-market relative volume and the second-highest absolute pre-market dollar volume among today’s movers, conviction is high.
VWAP anchor: ~$248–$252. Opening range expected: $250–$258 (5-min first candle). ATR(14): $26.35 — full ATR target ~$279. 20-day MA: ~$245 (~est.). Bias: LONG — looking for break above $258 opening range high for intraday continuation toward $265–$270.
Support: $248–$250 (VWAP / pre-mkt range low), $240 (prior support cluster). Resistance: $258–$260 (pre-mkt high area), $265 (key level), $270 (round number/ATR target).
Northland Capital Markets raised its price target on AXTI to $125 from $90 and reiterated an Outperform rating, citing accelerating demand for indium phosphide (InP) substrates driven by AI data center optical connectivity buildout. AXT manufactures the compound semiconductor substrates — indium phosphide, gallium arsenide, germanium — that form the physical foundation for high-speed optical transceivers used in AI cluster interconnects. As hyperscalers race to build 1+ MW GPU clusters requiring ultra-high-bandwidth optical links, substrate demand is growing geometrically. The analyst catalyst compounds with short-squeeze dynamics as elevated short interest amplifies the move.
AXTI is the highest-conviction technical setup in today’s scanner: largest pre-market gap at +7.87%, highest relative volume at 5.29×, and a clear single catalyst (analyst PT hike on a durable structural theme). The indium phosphide story ties directly to the AI infrastructure buildout — Intel’s 18A uses InP-based photonics, Nvidia’s next-gen NVLink interconnects require InP substrates, and every major hyperscaler optical transceiver roadmap depends on InP supply chains. AXTI is not a speculative name; it’s the picks-and-shovels play on the optical AI infrastructure layer that most traders haven’t yet priced in. The short squeeze potential adds volatility premium.
VWAP anchor: ~$82–$85. Opening range: $83–$88 (5-min first candle). ATR(14): $14.97 — full ATR targets $99–$100. Pre-mkt high: ~$88–$90. Bias: LONG — entry on opening range break above $88; target $95–$100. Stop below $80. Highly volatile — size accordingly.
Support: $80.00 (prior resistance turned support), $78.00 (pre-move base), $74–$75 (gap fill zone if squeeze reverses). Resistance: $90.00 (round number / pre-mkt high), $95.00, $100.00 (Northland PT milestone), $125.00 (analyst target).
Sign of Strength (SOS) with short squeeze overlay — rapid price discovery above a known supply zone. The InP substrate narrative is gaining institutional recognition; if volume confirms at the open, the $90–$100 zone is the next destination.
SpaceX is pricing its historic $75B IPO tonight at $135/share on Nasdaq (SPCX) — the largest IPO in human history. RKLB is the primary liquid beneficiary of this event: it is the largest publicly-traded pure-play launch company, and institutional capital that cannot allocate to the SPCX IPO at its target price is rotating into the next-best listed space proxy. Clear Street analyst Greg Pendy simultaneously raised Rocket Lab’s price target to $129 from $98 (Buy rating), citing the company’s $2+ billion backlog, record $200M quarterly revenue, and upcoming Neutron heavy-lift rocket first flight targeted for 2026.
When the world’s largest private space company goes public, the entire sector trades as if the tide came in. Rocket Lab is the closest publicly-listed analog to SpaceX in terms of launch capability and infrastructure services — and with SpaceX implicitly validated at a $1.75 trillion market cap tonight, the market is applying a fresh comparables framework to RKLB’s $60B market cap. The Neutron first flight in 2026 would instantly expand Rocket Lab’s addressable market from small-to-medium lift into the commercial heavy-lift segment currently dominated by SpaceX. This is both a near-term SpaceX IPO trade and a long-term Neutron catalyst play.
VWAP anchor: ~$103.00–$105.00. Opening range: $103–$108 (5-min first candle). ATR(14): $11.08 — full ATR target ~$116. Analyst PT: $129. Bias: LONG — entry on break of $108 opening range high; target $112–$116. Stop below $100 (psychological). SpaceX pricing after close is a second catalyst wind for tomorrow’s session.
Support: $100.00 (psychological / round number), $95.00 (prior base). Resistance: $108–$110 (opening range high target), $115.00 (ATR target zone), $129.00 (Clear Street analyst PT).
AST SpaceMobile has a hard binary event 6 days away: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites are scheduled to launch on a Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral on June 17, 2026. This launch is part of ASTS’s plan to have approximately 45 satellites in orbit by end of 2026, which is the threshold required to achieve continuous coverage for commercial SpaceMobile service in the US. The FCC has already granted commercial authorization for SpaceMobile’s direct-to-device broadband connectivity service. Combined with today’s SpaceX IPO halo lifting the entire space sector, ASTS is running on dual catalysts — a near-term launch binary and a broader space sector narrative.
ASTS is a pre-revenue satellite broadband company building the infrastructure to deliver cellular service directly to standard smartphones from space — no special hardware required. Partners include AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten; the FCC commercial authorization validates the regulatory path. With the BlueBird 8/9/10 launch 6 days away, traders are accumulating ahead of the binary event in a pre-launch accumulation pattern that RKLB has demonstrated repeatedly. The SpaceX IPO lifts sentiment for the entire space sector as a category, which brings fresh eyeballs to ASTS as the direct-to-device play that has no listed competition. Beta at 0.84 makes this the lower-beta space play in today’s Top 5 — useful for sizing.
VWAP anchor: ~$86.00–$88.00. Opening range: $86–$90 (5-min first candle). ATR(14): $11.08 — full ATR target ~$98. Bias: LONG — hold above $86 VWAP; target $90–$95 intraday, with a longer-term pre-launch target of $95–$100 ahead of June 17. Stop below $83–$84.
Support: $83–$84 (pre-mkt consolidation base), $80.00 (major psychological). Resistance: $90.00 (round number / pre-mkt extension), $95.00, $100.00 (pre-launch target zone).
Markup phase beginning from a base — pre-launch accumulation pattern confirmed by rising RVOL and orderly pre-market advance; similar to RKLB’s pre-launch pattern before BlueBird 4/5/6 in early 2026.
SpaceX pricing tonight at $135/share ($1.75T, $75B raise) is the largest IPO in human history. Institutional capital that cannot get SPCX allocation at IPO price is rotating into listed space proxies. RKLB is the primary beneficiary as the largest listed launch company. ASTS plays the direct-to-device broadband angle with a June 17 launch binary. LUNR covers lunar exploration with $20M NASA contracts and the $851M Lanteris acquisition. PL provides the Earth observation / space data services angle. The SpaceX IPO halo is expected to persist through Friday’s listing day (June 12) and potentially into early next week as the SPCX price discovery process draws media attention to the entire sector.
Google’s 3M+ TPU foundry order and Nvidia’s 18A evaluation represent dual validation from the two most demanding AI chip customers on the planet. Intel’s foundry narrative has shifted from “costly bet” to “strategic US semiconductor sovereignty play.” The beneficiaries extend beyond INTC: AXTI supplies the InP substrates that Intel’s photonic integration roadmap depends on. ONTO (Onto Innovation) provides process control metrology for advanced nodes. AEHR (Aehr Test Systems) tests compound semiconductor wafers. This theme has multi-week legs if additional hyperscaler foundry wins are announced — the Google TPU story is likely the first of several.
The data center energy crisis is driving a nuclear renaissance. OKLO’s prepayment agreement with Meta for a 1.2 GW power campus in Pike County, Ohio — paired with NRC accelerated approval of its Aurora powerhouse Principal Design Criteria — positions it as the leading small modular reactor pure-play. The reactor criticality test is scheduled for July 4, 2026 — a hard binary event less than four weeks away. SMR (NuScale), NNE (Nano Nuclear), VST (Vistra Energy), and CEG (Constellation Energy) offer correlated exposure at different risk levels. This theme has institutional backing from Canaccord and Wedbush; Goldman holds at Hold.
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | $54.02 | +5.02% | 131,929 | Nuclear AI power; Meta 1.2GW power campus deal (Pike County, OH); NRC accelerated Aurora PDC approval; reactor criticality milestone July 4, 2026 — the next hard binary catalyst. Volume lighter than Top 5 threshold but theme conviction is high. |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | $26.54 | +4.96% | 148,757 | SpaceX IPO space sector lift; Lanteris Space Systems acquisition ($851M) expands lunar services TAM; IM-3 lunar mission scheduled late 2026; $20M NASA contracts. Lighter pre-mkt volume keeps it Secondary, but it’s a key space sector satellite play. |
| IONQ | IonQ, Inc. | $56.63 | +3.61% | 202,088 | Quantum computing recovery from recent weakness. ⚠️ Caution: IONQ and RGTI are prone to violent intraday reversals even on gap-up days — require RVOL ≥3× sustained at open before adding. Watch but size very small. |
| NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor | $20.50 | +4.44% | 376,750 | Best relative volume among Secondary names (2.53×). GaN/SiC power semiconductor; AI data center power conversion efficiency theme. High beta (3.51) with ATR $3.39 — small absolute dollar move but good for scalpers. |
| MSTR | Strategy Inc. | $115.35 | +3.28% | 199,871 | Bitcoin proxy recovering with broad market; Strategy continues BTC accumulation strategy. BTC recovery trade in risk-on bounce day. Less preferred than space/semis today but liquid Bitcoin proxy if BTC reclaims key level. |
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Fri Jun 12 |
🚀 SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq Debut — Largest IPO in History
First trading day for SPCX after tonight’s $135 pricing. Expect massive volume, high volatility, and continued space sector momentum. RKLB, ASTS, LUNR may see additional catalyst-driven momentum as SPCX price discovery provides a live comparable valuation for listed space peers. Also watch: June OpEx volatility and any market reaction to PPI data from today.
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| Mon Jun 15 |
Empire State Manufacturing Index · Markets digest SpaceX debut
NY Fed manufacturing index for June. Markets will be processing the full implications of SPCX’s first week of trading. Watch for continued space sector theme vs. rotation back to broader AI/semi names as the SpaceX halo normalizes.
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| Tue Jun 16 |
Retail Sales — May 2026 · FOMC Blackout Begins
May retail sales print — key consumer health indicator following the hot CPI/PPI week. FOMC enters its pre-meeting blackout period; no Fed speakers until June 18 decision. Pre-FOMC positioning typically drives compression in equity volatility as traders await the rate signal.
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| Wed Jun 17 |
🛰️ ASTS BlueBird 8/9/10 Satellite Launch — Cape Canaveral, FL
AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 launch on Falcon 9 — a hard binary event for ASTS. Successful launch confirms the company’s cadence toward 45-satellite orbit coverage. FOMC meeting begins (Day 1 of 2-day session).
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| Thu Jun 18 |
🏦 FOMC Rate Decision + Press Conference · Jobless Claims
June FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Market consensus currently leans toward a hold given the persistent CPI/PPI prints, but commentary on the pace of potential future cuts will drive yield and equity reactions. Weekly jobless claims also due at 8:30 AM ET.
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| Fri Jun 19 |
🇺🇸 Juneteenth — US Markets CLOSED
Federal holiday. No US equity trading. Positions held over Thursday’s close are exposed to any weekend geopolitical news (Iran conflict, SpaceX SPCX price action internationally). Plan Thursday size accordingly.
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| ~Jul 4 |
⚛️ OKLO Aurora Reactor Criticality Test (Target Date)
Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse reactor is targeting first criticality — a major validation milestone for the company’s small modular reactor program and the AI nuclear power thesis. Binary event for OKLO; could catalyze broader NNE, SMR, CEG sector move.
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