TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 8:15 AM ET
Futures Chart Technical Analysis
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — Palantir’s blowout print (revenue +93% YoY, guidance raised ~$500M) is doing for the tape today what MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL did last week, and continued oil weakness on the Iran talks is easing yield pressure further. A hold above 7,629 (today’s low) keeps the push into the Premium zone alive; SpaceX’s and AMD’s earnings after today’s close carry real overnight-gap risk for tomorrow’s open.
Support: 7,629.00 (today’s low) → 7,530.25 (Wick Sweep) → 7,393 (July CHoCH/HL shelf)
Resistance: 7,657.75 (today’s high) → Premium zone (CHoCH ceiling) → fresh highs beyond
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — this is a direct reversal of Monday’s chip/AI-infrastructure rotation: AAOI, GLW, COHR and MRVL are all sharply green in this morning’s scanner, and PLTR’s post-earnings pop is the single largest pre-market gapper on the tape. A reclaim of 29,577.50 would confirm the rotation lower is over; failure to clear it keeps the contract range-bound into tonight’s AMD/SPCX prints.
Support: 28,831.75 (today’s low) → 27,700 (recent shelf) → 27,201.50 (correction low)
Resistance: 29,245.75 (today’s high) → 29,577.50 (Wick Sweep/Long Lifeline) → 30,750+ (Premium zone)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — Caterpillar’s premarket surge (+9% on a $20B+ sales beat) and continued Iran/oil relief are the direct beneficiaries for this cyclical/industrial-heavy index. Holding above 53,267 (today’s low) keeps the breakout intact into fresh price discovery.
Support: 53,267 (today’s low) → 52,804 (former Wick Sweep, now support) → 51,732 structural
Resistance: 53,947 (today’s high) → fresh highs beyond the Premium band
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — small-cap participation continues to confirm this rally isn’t just mega-cap driven; ASTS and RKLB (both small-cap movers in today’s scanner) are contributing directly to breadth. A close above 3,009.3 (today’s high) opens a retest of the July high.
Support: 2,986.1 (today’s low) → 2,900 structural → 2,820
Resistance: 3,009.3 (today’s high) → 3,016.3 (Wick Sweep) → 3,068.4 (July high)
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Technology leads decisively as the AI-optical/networking complex (AAOI, GLW, COHR, MRVL) reverses Monday’s rotation and PLTR’s earnings pop ripples through the group. Industrials firm on Caterpillar’s premarket surge, reinforcing the Dow’s leadership. Energy is the clear laggard as WTI and Brent extend Monday’s crash for a second straight session on the Iran de-escalation. Communication Services is roughly flat — SPOT’s earnings-day slide offsets SPCX’s pre-earnings strength. Consumer Discretionary is only modestly higher despite MCD’s earnings beat, tempered by the same-store-sales slowdown. Real Estate/Utilities firm as yields stay contained near multi-week lows. ~est. from pre-market ETF proxies and scanner sector tags.
Market Bias
- 🟢 All four index futures green: NQ +1.18% (leads), YM +1.10%, RTY +0.55%, ES +0.34% — broad-based risk-on
- 🟢 Palantir smashes Q2 estimates: revenue $1.94B (+93% YoY) vs. $1.81B est., EPS $0.41 vs. $0.35 est., FY guidance raised ~$500M to $8.15B midpoint; stock +15–17% pre-market
- 🟢 Monday’s AI-infrastructure rotation reverses hard: AAOI, GLW, COHR, MRVL all sharply higher pre-market on continued AI-datacenter optical demand
- 🟢 Caterpillar +9% premarket on sales/revenue topping $20B for the first time — reinforcing Dow leadership
- 🟢 Oil extends Monday’s crash: WTI −4.17% to $76.99, Brent −2.50% to $81.60, second straight session of Iran-relief selling
- 🟡 Iran still disputes direct talks are scheduled — Trump calls his proposal Tehran’s “final opportunity”; real headline risk remains live
- 🟡 McDonald’s mixed: EPS beat but U.S. same-store sales growth slowed; new U.S. president named effective today
- 🔴 Spotify misses on EPS (€2.61 vs. €2.80 est.) despite hitting 300M Premium subscribers; shares down ~4% pre-market
- 🟡 AMD and SpaceX both report after today’s close — SpaceX’s first-ever public earnings, two days before Wednesday’s ~$116B lockup expiry
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Yahoo Finance Live Markets Blog, Benzinga, CNBC, Fortune, CNN Fear & Greed Index, TradingView futures/VIX/DXY/oil charts, pre-market scanner data
Overall Economic Summary
The dominant story of the morning is Palantir’s blowout second-quarter report, released after Monday’s close. Revenue came in at $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year and roughly $130M ahead of the $1.81B consensus, with U.S. commercial revenue surging 149% and U.S. government revenue up 90%. Adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat the $0.35 estimate, extending the company’s beat streak, and management raised full-year revenue guidance by nearly $500M to an $8.15B midpoint. CEO Alex Karp described the quarter as “otherworldly.” The stock is up as much as 15–17% in pre-market trading and is the standout gapper on today’s entire scanner — and its ripple effect is doing for Nasdaq futures today what MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL did for the tape last week. Just as notable: Monday’s AI-infrastructure/chip rotation that dragged Intel, Marvell, Nebius, Bloom Energy and Applied Optoelectronics lower is reversing hard this morning, with Applied Optoelectronics, Corning, Coherent, and Marvell all sharply higher on continued evidence of AI-datacenter optical-networking demand — Applied Optoelectronics is guiding toward $1B-plus in FY2026 revenue (versus $455.7M in 2025) and is expanding its Pearland, Texas campus by nearly 400,000 square feet to ramp 800G/1.6T transceiver production, while Corning’s own Q2 beat and raised guidance cited margin expansion in its Optical Communications segment on the same AI-buildout demand.
On the macro side, oil is extending Monday’s historic decline for a second straight session — WTI is down another 4.17% to $76.99 and Brent is down 2.50% to $81.60 — as President Trump frames his proposal to Iran as Tehran’s “final opportunity” to reach a deal and says he is confident the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. Iran continues to publicly dispute that any direct talks with the U.S. are underway, though it confirms discussions with Oman on a temporary safe shipping corridor through the strait are progressing; Turkey and Iraq also extended a key oil pipeline agreement and Kazakhstan resumed Caspian Pipeline Consortium flows, adding non-geopolitical supply pressure, while OPEC+ approved another modest output increase completing the restoration of 2023’s supply cuts. The combined effect continues to ease inflation and yield pressure that weighed on risk assets for weeks — the 10-year Treasury yield is holding in the low-4.2% range, well off its recent highs, and VIX has eased to 15.67 (−1.26%), its lowest level in roughly two weeks. The Dow is the clearest secondary beneficiary of the macro backdrop, with Caterpillar surging as much as 9% pre-market after sales and revenue topped $20 billion for the first time — reinforcing YM1!’s leadership among the index futures for a second consecutive session.
In single-stock news, today is a marquee earnings day beyond Palantir’s reaction: Advanced Micro Devices and SpaceX both report after today’s close, with AMD’s print (consensus $11.3B revenue, $1.61 EPS, with focus on MI350 shipments and Helios rack-scale order momentum) and SpaceX’s historic first-ever public quarterly report (consensus spans a loss of $1.26 to a profit of $0.33 per share, with investors watching Starlink subscriber counts, operating margins, and Cursor-integration commentary) both landing just ahead of Wednesday’s roughly $116B SpaceX share-lockup expiry — a genuinely binary 48-hour window for that name. Elsewhere, McDonald’s posted a modest EPS beat ($3.38 adjusted vs. prior-year $3.14) but flagged slowing U.S. same-store sales growth, alongside naming Skye Anderson as the new president of its U.S. business effective today, succeeding Joe Erlinger. Spotify’s revenue of €4.8B was roughly in line with the €4.79B estimate and the company crossed 300 million Premium subscribers for the first time, but EPS of €2.61 missed the €2.80 consensus, sending shares down roughly 4% pre-market. Today’s data highlight is the 10 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings report (June) alongside Factory Orders, with Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls report still the week’s single biggest data point.
Market Sentiment
NQ1! leads at +1.18%, YM1! confirms at +1.10%, RTY1! at +0.55%, and ES1! rounds out a clean sweep at +0.34% — a broad-based BULLISH regime, and per today’s request the Top 5 is built entirely around user-specified names: Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, Applied Optoelectronics, and Corning. The macro tailwind is real and forceful — Palantir’s “otherworldly” Q2 beat (revenue +93% YoY, guidance raised ~$500M) is single-handedly reversing Monday’s chip/AI-infrastructure weakness, with Applied Optoelectronics, Corning, Coherent, and Marvell all sharply higher this morning as the AI-datacenter optical-networking theme confirms rather than fades. Caterpillar’s premarket surge is doing the same job for the Dow that MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL did last week for the Nasdaq, and continued oil weakness (WTI −4.17%, Brent −2.50% on top of Monday’s crash) keeps easing the yield/inflation backdrop that’s capped risk assets for weeks. The nuance today is that AMD and SpaceX are both pre-earnings positioning trades, not confirmed reactions — both report after today’s close, with SpaceX’s print landing just two days before Wednesday’s ~$116B lockup expiry, a genuinely binary event window. Caveats: Iran continues to dispute that direct talks are actually scheduled, which is real headline risk into the session; the 10 AM JOLTS/Factory Orders prints can move the tape independently; and this desk does not hold AMD or SPCX positions through tonight’s earnings given the binary gap risk on both names.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 AM | JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) | — | See BLS release | MED |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders (Jun) | — | — | LOW |
| After Close | 🔴 AMD Q2 2026 Earnings | Rev $11.3B · EPS $1.61 | — | HIGH |
| After Close (4:30 PM call) | 🔴 SpaceX (SPCX) Q2 2026 Earnings — First Public Report | EPS range −$1.26 to +$0.33 | — | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
U.S. commercial revenue +149%, U.S. government +90%. Karp called it an “otherworldly” quarter. Stock +15–17% pre-market — the single largest gapper on today’s scanner and the direct driver of NQ1!’s leadership this morning.
Focus areas: MI350 AI-chip shipment acceleration and quantifiable Helios rack-scale system orders; ~$6.5B of data-center revenue expected ($4B server CPU + $2.5B AI accelerators). Stock is off ~12% from its June high but still +100%+ YTD. This desk trades the pre-earnings drift only.
SpaceX’s first-ever quarterly report as a public company, landing two days before Wednesday’s ~$116B (911.5M-share) lockup expiry. Investors want revenue, operating margin, Starlink subscriber counts, and Cursor-integration commentary. Analyst consensus 12-month PT of ~$231–236 implies 100%+ upside from the Aug. 1 close, though the stock is down over 30% from its June IPO price.
Not on today’s list. MCD named a new U.S. president (Skye Anderson) effective today; SPOT crossed 300M Premium subscribers but shares are down ~4% pre-market on the EPS miss.
⚡ Also this week: Rocket Lab (Aug 10), plus continued digestion of last week’s MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL and Monday’s PLTR prints through Friday’s jobs report — a genuinely heavy earnings stretch continues.
Key Events Today
🚀 SpaceX’s First-Ever Public Earnings Report
Consensus spans a $1.26 loss to $0.33 profit per share. Investors watching Starlink subscriber counts, operating margins, and Cursor-integration commentary. A genuinely binary 48-hour window into Wednesday’s 911.5M-share unlock.
🤖 AMD Q2 Earnings — High Bar on AI-Chip Cycle
Consensus $11.3B revenue, $1.61 EPS. Key focus: MI350 shipment acceleration and Helios rack-scale order momentum. Stock is 12% off its June high heading into the print despite a 100%+ YTD gain.
🔬 AI Optical Infrastructure Rally Reverses Monday’s Rotation
AAOI, GLW, COHR and MRVL are all sharply higher pre-market on continued AI-datacenter optical-networking demand, a hard reversal of Monday’s chip/AI-infra weakness.
🕊️ Iran Talks Continue, Oil Extends Slide
Trump calls his proposal Tehran’s “final opportunity” and says he’s confident the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon; Iran again disputes direct talks are underway. WTI −4.17%, Brent −2.50% on top of Monday’s crash.
Top 5 Movers
Research Themes
🟢 AI Optical/Networking Infrastructure — Rotation Reversal
AAOI and GLW (both Top 5) are extending Monday’s post-earnings surges, while Coherent (+15.9% PM, raised Q4 guidance on AI-datacenter optics) and Marvell (+7.9% PM, showcasing AI memory/storage infrastructure at this week’s FMS 2026 conference) confirm the same demand story. This is a clean, hard reversal of Monday’s chip/AI-infra rotation.
🚀 Space / Satellite — Earnings and Launch Catalysts Stack Up
SpaceX (Top 5) reports its first-ever public earnings today ahead of Wednesday’s lockup expiry. AST SpaceMobile is gearing up for its BlueBird 11/12/13 satellite launch Wednesday from Cape Canaveral as it enters the Japanese market with Rakuten, and Rocket Lab is riding fresh Electron contract wins (18 total missions for iQPS) and a $266M Space Force award into its own Aug. 10 earnings date.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | PM Gap % | PM Vol | Beta / ATR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | $288.14 | +15.92% | 740K | β1.51 / ATR $30.39 | Highest 5-min RVOL in today’s entire scanner (6.54×). Raised fiscal Q4 revenue guidance to $1.91–2.05B on AI-datacenter optics demand and a record backlog. Ties directly into the AAOI/GLW optical-infrastructure theme. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | $193.78 | +7.98% | 928K | β1.51 / ATR $19.34 | Showcasing its AI memory/storage infrastructure portfolio at FMS 2026 (Aug. 4–6, Santa Clara) this week. Rebounding from Monday’s profit-taking pullback. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | $218.32 | +4.53% | 246K | β4.51 / ATR $30.10 | Record Q2 revenue ($1.07B vs. $827M est.), EPS $0.78 vs. $0.41 est., FY26 guidance raised to $4.05B rev/$850M op income; Mizuho upgraded to Outperform. Highest Beta/ATR combo in today’s scanner — anchors the AI-power-demand theme. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $63.52 | +6.16% | 487K | β1.60 / ATR $6.53 | BlueBird 11/12/13 satellite launch scheduled Wednesday from Cape Canaveral, entering the Japanese market via Rakuten; Scotiabank upgraded to Sector Perform. Ties into today’s SPCX space theme. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $91.00 | +5.50% | 1.92M | β3.35 / ATR $8.44 | Highest absolute pre-market volume of any name in today’s scanner (day volume 96.6M). Broad chip-sector strength this week alongside the FMS 2026 conference; a direct reversal of Monday’s chip-complex weakness. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
Names excluded from today’s list despite appearing on the scanner: WOLF (+8.02% PM, ATR $4.00 below the preferred $5 floor), MXL (+7.36% PM, decent ATR $10.36/Beta 3.26 but crowded out of the 5-name cap), RKLB (+3.89% PM, strong Beta 3.30 but smaller gap than the names above — held for the Themed Movers section instead), IONQ (+4.17% PM, ATR $3.38 below the preferred floor), SMCI/APLD/HPE (all cut on thin ATR, all below the $5 floor), NKE/CIFR/DOCN/SPOT (short-side candidates, but today’s regime and desk’s long-lean skew favors an all-long Secondary list given the breadth of qualifying long setups).
Themed Movers
AAOI and GLW are extending Monday’s post-earnings surges, while COHR (raised Q4 guidance, record backlog) and MRVL (FMS 2026 conference presence) confirm the same AI-datacenter optical-demand story. WOLF and MXL round out the group as liquid alternates riding the same reversal of Monday’s chip/AI-infra rotation.
Bloom Energy’s blowout Q2 (record revenue, guidance raise, Mizuho upgrade) is anchoring a broader move in power-and-compute infrastructure names tied to AI data-center buildouts. FuelCell Energy and server/data-center names Super Micro and Applied Digital are extending the same theme pre-market on smaller but confirmed gaps.
SpaceX reports its first-ever public earnings today ahead of Wednesday’s ~$116B lockup expiry — the single biggest binary event in the group. AST SpaceMobile is prepping its BlueBird 11/12/13 launch Wednesday as it enters Japan via Rakuten, and Rocket Lab is riding fresh Electron contract wins (18 total missions for iQPS) and a $266M Space Force suborbital-launch award into its own Aug. 10 earnings date.
Session Playbook
PLTR should hold well above its pre-market reference on volume given the confirmed earnings beat. COHR’s 6.54× RVOL is the highest in the scanner — let the 5-min opening range complete before entering on a breakout with volume confirmation.
Medium/low-impact prints. A soft JOLTS reading would reinforce the easing-yield backdrop supporting today’s rally; a hot print could revive rate-hike chatter and cap the move.
Iran continues to dispute that direct talks are scheduled — any headline confirming or denying negotiations can whipsaw oil and, by extension, the Dow-led cyclical bid. Trim size into any fast reversal risk.
Both AMD and SpaceX report after today’s close, with SPCX’s print sitting just two days ahead of its lockup expiry. This desk trades the pre-earnings drift only on both names and does not hold positions through either print.
Overnight Intelligence
🌏 Asia / Pacific
🌍 Middle East / Macro
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Tue Aug 4 | TODAY — JOLTS Job Openings & Factory Orders 10 AM · AMD & SpaceX (first public report) earnings AMC · MCD/SPOT earnings BMO PLTR’s blowout Q2 reaction and a hard reversal of Monday’s AI-infrastructure rotation dominate the tape; oil extends its Iran-relief crash for a second session. |
| Wed Aug 5 | ADP Employment · ISM Services PMI · SpaceX ~$116B share-lockup expiry (911.5M shares) · AST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellite launch A major binary event for SPCX just one day after its first public earnings print; ASTS launches BlueBird 11/12/13 from Cape Canaveral. |
| Thu Aug 6 | Weekly Jobless Claims Last labor-market data point before Friday’s headline report. |
| Fri Aug 7 | July Nonfarm Payrolls Report The week’s single biggest data point — a strong print could reignite rate-hike chatter given Fed Chair Warsh’s more hawkish public guidance stance. |
| Mon Aug 10 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q2 Earnings AMC Comes off fresh Electron contract wins (18 total iQPS missions) and a $266M Space Force suborbital-launch award — the next catalyst in this week’s Space/Satellite theme. |