TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 8:00 AM ET
Futures Chart Technical Analysis
Next-candle bias: BULLISH-neutral — the weakest gainer of the four indices today (+0.21%), consistent with rotation concentrated in tech/AI rather than the broad index. A reclaim of 7,500 and the Long Lifeline opens a push into the Premium zone; a slip back under 7,468 flags today's gain as fragile.
Support: 7,468 (today's low) → 7,393 (Wick Sweep shelf) → 7,325 (CHoCH/HL zone)
Resistance: 7,500 (Long Lifeline) → 7,518 (today's high) → 7,530–7,648 (Premium box)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH continuation — this is day two of the AI-infrastructure oversold bounce (NBIS, CRWV, AXTI all extending gains after Thursday's MSFT/AMZN-driven relief rally). A close above 28,640 (today's high) keeps the reversal thesis intact; a fade back under 28,300 would flag the bounce as stalling two days in.
Support: 28,300 (today's low) → 27,700 (recent shelf) → 27,201.50 (correction low)
Resistance: 28,640.75 (today's high) → 29,577.50 (Wick Sweep) → 30,750+ (Premium zone)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH-neutral — a clean reclaim of 52,705–52,804 resumes the uptrend toward the Premium zone; failure to hold today's low (52,375) reopens the range back toward 51,700.
Support: 52,375 (today's low) → 52,705 (Wick Sweep, now acting as support-in-progress) → 51,732 structural
Resistance: 52,742 (today's high) → 52,804 (Wick Sweep) → 53,656 (Premium floor)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH if 2,953 (today's low) continues to hold — breadth confirmation matters here since small-caps lag mega-cap-driven rallies; a reversal back under 2,900 would flag the broader risk-on move as narrow.
Support: 2,953.1 (today's low) → 2,900 structural → 2,820
Resistance: 2,976.3 (today's high) → 3,016.3 (Wick Sweep) → 3,068.4 (July high)
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Technology leading for a second day on the MSFT/AMZN "AI monetization proof" trade and the broader chip-sector rebound (Kospi's record +17.9% day). Energy firm as Brent tracks toward a ~24% monthly gain into today's XOM/CVX earnings. Consumer Discretionary lifted directly by Amazon's beat. Communication Services soft — Alphabet still digesting its July 23 capex-driven selloff. Real Estate and Utilities pressured by still-elevated long-dated yields (10Y ~4.66%, 30Y ~5.21%, highest since 2007). ~est. from pre-market ETF proxies.
Market Bias
- 🟢 Futures unanimously green, second day running: ES +0.21%, NQ +0.82% (leading), YM +0.47%, RTY +0.37%
- 🟢 Microsoft's historic day: +16% Thursday, ~$450B added to market cap — the largest single-day market-cap gain by any company ever, on a 43% Azure revenue beat and a $678B cloud backlog
- 🟢 Amazon beats big: Q2 revenue $201B (+20% YoY), EPS $5.75, AWS growth 37% vs. 31% est., stock +12% premarket; raised FY capex guidance to $220B
- 🔴 Apple's swan song stumbles: Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO brought a disappointing September-quarter revenue guide (FX + memory-cost pressure); shares fell ~7%
- 🟡 Kospi's record day: South Korea's index surged +17.9% (its largest single-day gain ever) as Samsung (+28%) and SK Hynix (+30%) ripped on the same AI read-through
- 🟢 Situational Awareness unwind eases: Citadel's Ken Griffin bought a large chunk of the $16B AI-stock book being force-sold by the Aschenbrenner hedge fund (NBIS, SNDK, MU, CRWV were its top holdings, each down >35% in July) — seen as a floor under further forced selling
- 🟡 Yields still elevated: 10Y ~4.66%, 30Y ~5.21% (highest since 2007) after Wednesday's split 9–3 FOMC hold with three hawkish dissents — Fed credibility questioned even as the market rallies
- 🟡 Oil extending its war premium: Brent on pace for a ~24% monthly gain as Middle East strikes escalate and hopes for a summer peace deal fade; Goldman flags a widening global diesel crunch
- 🔴 Alphabet still digesting: GOOGL remains red (−0.91% today) following its −7.1% capex-shock day on July 23 — a laggard within an otherwise green tech tape
Sources: CNN Fear & Greed Index, TradingView futures charts, Bloomberg Morning Briefing, Barron's Daily, The Morning Setup, Yahoo Finance
Overall Economic Summary
Today is the second day of a powerful relief rally built on Thursday's mega-cap earnings, and it's shaping up to close out July on a genuinely bullish note. Microsoft's Q4 beat was the standout print of the week — a 43% jump in Azure revenue, a $678 billion cloud backlog, and steady cash-flow guidance through 2027 drove the stock up 16% and added roughly $450 billion in market value in a single session, the largest one-day market-cap gain by any company in history. Amazon followed Thursday evening with revenue of $201 billion (+20% YoY) and EPS of $5.75, both comfortably ahead of estimates; AWS growth accelerated to 37% (versus 31% expected) with operating margin at 39%, and CEO Andy Jassy raised full-year capex guidance to $220 billion, funded partly by fresh debt issuance rather than free cash flow (Amazon posted its second consecutive quarter of negative FCF). The stock is up roughly 12% in premarket trade. Apple was the outlier: strong iPhone sales were overshadowed by a disappointing September-quarter revenue guide tied to foreign-exchange and elevated memory costs, and shares fell about 7% in what was Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO.
The read-through went global overnight: South Korea's Kospi index surged 17.9% — its largest single-day gain on record — as Samsung Electronics (+28%) and SK Hynix (+30%) exploded higher on the same "AI capex is real" thesis, clawing back a chunk of the roughly 17% the index had shed over the prior three sessions on AI-bubble and China-competition fears. A second, distinct tailwind is easing pressure on the AI-infrastructure complex specifically: Situational Awareness, a hedge fund founded by ex-OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner that grew to as large as $45 billion by early July on concentrated AI-bull/software-bear bets, has been forced to unwind to meet margin calls this week. Its largest holdings — Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, and CoreWeave — are all down more than 35% in July, but Citadel's Ken Griffin has reportedly bought a large portion of the fund's $16 billion public-equity book, a deal markets are reading as putting a floor under further forced liquidation in exactly the names (NBIS, CRWV) that anchor today's long list.
The macro backdrop is more mixed than the equity tape suggests. Q2 GDP grew a soft 1.5% annualized (below expectations, hurt by a jump in imports) even as consumer spending (+3.2%) and AI-driven business investment stayed strong. Long-dated Treasury yields remain uncomfortably high — the 10-year near 4.66% and the 30-year near 5.21%, its highest since 2007 — following Wednesday's split 9–3 FOMC hold, where three members dissented in favor of a hike; strategists describe the market's reaction as "jilted lover" behavior, unhappy the Fed didn't validate the hawkish case. The dollar has weakened toward its lowest levels since mid-June, and the yen jumped sharply overnight on suspected Bank of Japan intervention ahead of a BOJ rate decision. Energy remains the wildcard: Brent crude is on pace for a roughly 24% gain in July alone as Middle East military strikes escalate and hopes fade for a summer ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Goldman Sachs has flagged a widening global diesel shortage tied to war-related refinery outages. Today's data calendar is comparatively light (Employment Cost Index at 8:30 AM, Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM, revised UMich sentiment and inflation expectations at 10 AM), with earnings from Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie, and Linde before the open rounding out a busy final trading day of the month.
Market Sentiment
ES1! is +0.21%, NQ1! again leads at +0.82%, and YM1!/RTY1! confirm at +0.47%/+0.37% — a clean BULLISH regime for a second consecutive session, and per today's request I've anchored the Top 5 around Amazon, Alphabet, and Nebius with two discretionary adds. This remains an oversold-bounce/monetization-proof day: Amazon's AWS beat and Microsoft's historic +16% session are the hard evidence the market wanted that AI capex is converting into real revenue, and that thesis is lifting the same AI-infrastructure names (NBIS, CRWV, AXTI) that were hammered in July's de-grossing wave — now getting a second tailwind from Citadel's purchase of Situational Awareness's forced-sale book. Alphabet is the one lockstep pick trading against the tape (still digesting its own July 23 capex-shock selloff), so it's framed here as a laggard-catch-up/mean-reversion setup rather than a momentum breakout. Caveats: today's Employment Cost Index (8:30 AM) and revised UMich sentiment/inflation expectations (10 AM) can still revive the "Fed credibility" yield story that's kept the 10-year near 4.66%, and Friday month-end/weekend positioning plus an unresolved Middle East war are real overnight-risk factors into the close.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Employment Cost Index (Q2, q/q) | — | — | MED |
| 9:45 AM | Chicago PMI (Jul) | — | — | LOW |
| 10:00 AM | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Jul) | — | — | MED |
| 10:00 AM | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations (Jul) | — | — | MED |
| 11:00 AM | Trump Cabinet Meeting (Camp David) — headline-risk watch | — | — | LOW |
| Before Open | 🔴 Exxon Mobil (XOM) / Chevron (CVX) Q2 Earnings | XOM EPS $3.63 · CVX EPS $5.57 | — | MED |
| Before Open | AbbVie (ABBV) / Linde (LIN) Q2 Earnings | ABBV EPS $3.61 · LIN EPS $4.39 | — | LOW |
Today's Earnings
The single biggest market-cap gain by any company ever in one session (~$450B added). Not a standalone Top 5 pick today (no fresh catalyst intraday) but the anchor evidence for the entire "AI monetization is real" thesis driving today's long list.
AWS operating margin hit 39%; FY capex guidance raised to $220B, funded partly by new debt (Amazon posted a second straight quarter of negative FCF). Stock +12% premarket. Anchors Top 5 long #1 (user-specified).
Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO. Not a Top 5/Secondary pick today — included as the "AI-spend-without-proof-yet" counterweight within the same 48 hours of mega-cap earnings, and a drag on the Dow/S&P relative to NQ.
Big Oil earnings land directly into a month where Brent is on pace for a ~24% gain on Middle East war escalation — watch for commentary on refining margins and the Goldman-flagged diesel crunch. Context only, not on today's long list.
⚡ Also reporting before the open: AbbVie, Linde, Eaton, Sony, Enbridge, NatWest, Colgate-Palmolive, Sumitomo Mitsui — a broad, low-drama end-of-month earnings slate outside of energy.
Key Events Today
💻 MSFT's Historic Day + AMZN Beat — AI Divide Resolves Bullish
Microsoft's ~$450B single-day market-cap gain and Amazon's AWS-growth beat are the clearest evidence yet that AI capex is monetizing — directly rebutting the fear that crushed Alphabet on July 23 and pressured Meta this week. Today's long list leans into names proving that thesis (AMZN) or geared to benefit from continued hyperscaler spend (MRVL, INTC).
🏦 Citadel Buys Situational Awareness's Forced-Sale Book
Ken Griffin's Citadel reportedly purchased a large chunk of the $16B AI-equity book being unwound by Situational Awareness, an AI-bull hedge fund forced to de-lever this week. Its top holdings — Nebius, SanDisk, Micron, CoreWeave — were each down >35% in July; the deal is read as a floor under further forced selling in exactly these names.
🇰🇷 Kospi's Record +17.9% Day — Global Chip Rebound Confirmed
South Korea's largest single-day gain ever, with Samsung (+28%) and SK Hynix (+30%) rocketing on the same MSFT/AMZN AI read-through, clawing back a chunk of the prior three sessions' ~17% AI-bubble-fear selloff. Strong global confirmation for today's US chip-rebound long list.
🛢️ Oil's War Premium + Diesel Crunch Into Month-End
Brent is on pace for a ~24% July gain as Middle East strikes escalate and hopes fade for a summer ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Goldman Sachs separately flags a widening global diesel shortage from war-related refinery outages. Watch WTI/Brent for any fresh escalation headline throughout the session.
Top 5 Movers
Research Themes
🟢 AI Infrastructure Forced-Selling Unwind
NBIS (+8.35% PM after +27.13% Wed), CRWV (+4.71% PM after +21.51% Wed), and AXTI (+36.98% PM on its own earnings) anchor a group that was hammered in July's broader de-grossing wave and is now getting relief from Citadel's purchase of the Situational Awareness fund's forced-sale book. MRVL and SMCI round out a confirmed five-name group riding the same reversal.
🔵 AI CapEx Monetization Winners — Post-Earnings Divide
Microsoft's historic +16% day and Amazon's AWS-growth beat are the strongest evidence yet that hyperscaler AI capex is converting into real revenue — directly countering the fear that hit Alphabet (July 23) and Meta this week. MSFT, AMZN, MRVL (custom silicon), INTC (foundry/AI beneficiary), and AMD (data-center GPU demand) represent the long side of that divide.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | PM Gap % | PM Vol | Beta / ATR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | $183.30 | +5.65% | 520K | β1.54 / ATR $19.65 | Custom-silicon AI-capex-winner name, day chg +12.18%. 5-min RVOL 3.65× ties directly into the MSFT/AMZN monetization-proof theme. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $90.11 | +6.69% | 245K | β2.35 / ATR $14.63 | Highest 5-min RVOL on this list (4.66×). Rosenblatt named it a top H2-2026 pick; expanding its Pearland, TX campus for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers. Same data-center-optics theme as AXTI. Long on strength. |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $91.13 | +4.43% | 1.64M | β3.39 / ATR $8.69 | Highest absolute pre-market volume and day volume (140.31M) of any name in today's scanner — a foundry/AI-beneficiary name riding the same capex-winner rotation as MRVL. Long on ORB breakout. |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Corporation | $64.68 | +2.50% | 254K | β3.31 / ATR $6.78 | Space-sector complement, repeat strong performer on this desk's scanner. Modest gap today but Beta/ATR both clear preferred floors; long on continuation with the broader risk-on tape. |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | $207.12 | +5.79% | 456K | β4.50 / ATR $29.81 | Data-center power/fuel-cell name, day chg +26.49% — highest Beta/ATR combo on this list. Ties into the same AI-infrastructure buildout theme from the power-supply side. Long on ORB breakout, size down given extreme ATR. |
Names excluded from today's list despite appearing on the scanner: IREN (+4.99% PM, day +30.54%, but ATR $4.50 below the preferred $5 floor), APLD (+5.29% PM, ATR $3.10 below floor), SMCI (+2.52% PM, ATR too thin despite the AI-infra bounce theme), WOLF (RVOL 6.54× but ATR $4.24 below floor). RDDT/RBLX excluded — long-only day, no short setups per current regime.
Themed Movers
NBIS, CRWV, AXTI, SMCI, and MRVL were all crushed in July's broader AI/chip-sector de-grossing wave — accelerated this week by the forced unwind of the Situational Awareness hedge fund's $16B+ book (NBIS and CRWV were among its largest holdings, each down >35% on the month). Citadel's purchase of a large chunk of that book is the fresh catalyst putting a floor under further forced selling, and all five names are extending Thursday's bounce today.
Microsoft's historic +16% day (largest single-day market-cap gain ever) and Amazon's AWS-growth beat crystallized the market's "who's actually monetizing AI" debate in the bulls' favor, directly countering the capex-without-proof fear that hit Alphabet (July 23) and Meta this week. MSFT, AMZN, and the infrastructure beneficiaries MRVL, INTC, and AMD represent the long side of that divide.
Session Playbook
Medium-impact print, but with the 10Y near 4.66% and the 30Y at a 2007 high, any upside surprise revives the "Fed credibility" yield story and could cap today's bounce. A soft print supports continuation.
AMZN should hold well above Wednesday's close on volume — a fade back toward the premarket low would flag the beat as already priced in. NBIS, CRWV, and AXTI are the highest-conviction day-two bounce longs; let the 5-min opening range complete before entering on a breakout with RVOL confirmation.
This is the higher-risk, contrarian name in today's Top 5 — treat it as a reversal setup, not a breakout, and wait for confirmation before entering. The 10 AM UMich sentiment/inflation-expectations data can move rate-sensitive names (real estate, utilities) independently of the tech-led tape.
This is the last trading day of July, so month-end rebalancing flows can add noise into the close. With an unresolved Middle East conflict and no scheduled market-moving data over the weekend, reduce size on anything not comfortable holding through Monday's open.
Overnight Intelligence
🌏 Asia / Pacific
🌍 Middle East / Macro
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Fri Jul 31 | TODAY — Employment Cost Index 8:30 AM · Chicago PMI 9:45 AM · UMich Sentiment/Inflation Expectations 10 AM · Month-End Day two of the AI-monetization relief rally, closing out July. Big Oil earnings (XOM, CVX) land into a month where Brent is up ~24%. |
| Sat Aug 1 – Sun Aug 2 | Weekend — Middle East conflict headline risk stays live No scheduled US economic data. Any fresh escalation or de-escalation headline over the weekend can gap energy and risk sentiment at Monday's open. |
| Mon Aug 3 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) First major August economic read, and a fresh test of whether the chip-sector/Kospi rebound is holding into a new week. |
| Tue Aug 4 | JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) · Factory Orders Continued read on labor-market softness following the Fed's split decision. |
| Fri Aug 7 | July Nonfarm Payrolls Report First full jobs report since Wednesday's split FOMC decision — a key input for whether the committee's 3-dissent hawkish minority gains traction at the next meeting. |