TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 8:00 AM ET
Futures Chart Technical Analysis
Next-candle bias: BULLISH continuation as long as 7,375 holds — a clean push through 7,402 (today’s high) opens a retest of the Long Lifeline near 7,500; failure back below 7,375 flags the bounce as a one-day dead-cat.
Support: 7,375 (CHoCH shelf) → 7,331 (today’s low) → 7,300 structural
Resistance: 7,402 (today’s high) → 7,500 (Long Lifeline) → 7,530–7,648 (Premium box, Wick Sweep 7,530.25)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH but fragile — this is an oversold snapback (NBIS, CRWV, AXTI all gapping double digits), not yet a trend change. A close back below 27,600 would flag the bounce as failing; holding above it into the close keeps the reversal thesis alive ahead of tonight’s AMZN/AAPL earnings.
Support: 27,600 → 27,201.50 (today’s low / yesterday’s crush zone) → 27,000
Resistance: 27,745 (today’s high) → 28,250 (recent CHoCH shelf) → 29,577.50 (Wick Sweep)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH-neutral — least dynamic of the four today, consistent with rotation out of value/Dow-heavy names and back into growth/tech. A reclaim of 52,804 resumes the broader uptrend; a slip below 52,705 reopens 52,290.
Support: 51,732 (today’s low) → 52,705 (Wick Sweep) → 51,000 structural
Resistance: 52,705 Wick Sweep → 52,804 Wick Sweep → 53,656 (weak high / Premium floor)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH if 2,905 continues to hold as support — small-caps participating in today’s broad relief rally is a healthy breadth signal; a reversal back under 2,900 would flag the chip-driven risk-off as still live beneath the surface.
Support: 2,905.6 (today’s low) → 2,900 structural → 2,820
Resistance: 2,933.7 (today’s high) → 3,016.3 (Wick Sweep) → 3,068.4 (weak high)
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Technology leading on the oversold AI-infrastructure bounce and Microsoft’s blowout beat, though NVDA itself remains a laggard on OpenAI-financing overhang; Utilities firm on rate-sensitive positioning. Communication Services soft — Meta’s post-earnings overhang still weighing despite Alphabet-adjacent strength. Energy giving back a piece of the overnight Iran spike as oil cools from its highs. Consumer Discretionary firm on Amazon pre-earnings positioning. ~est. from pre-market ETF proxies.
Market Bias
- 🟢 Futures unanimously green: ES +0.67%, NQ +1.45% (leading), YM +0.52%, RTY +0.61% — a broad relief rally the morning after Wednesday’s Fed-day rout
- 🟢 VIX: 19.08 (−7.60% intraday) — a sharp fear unwind even with the CNN print still sitting in the Fear zone
- 🟢 Microsoft blowout: Q4 EPS $4.74 vs $4.33 est., Azure crosses $100B in quarterly revenue for the first time — stock popped ~8-9% premarket Thursday, the standout “AI-benefit” print of the week
- 🔴 Meta miss: EPS $6.18 vs $7.17 est., free cash flow collapsed ~91% YoY — shares fell 9.6%+ and helped push the Nasdaq-100 into technical correction territory Wednesday
- 🔴 Iran war widening: Egypt confirms a drone struck two gas vessels at one of its ports; Iran vows to “punish the aggressor” after the US’s overnight “heavy wave” of strikes on IRGC targets — active, unresolved geopolitical risk
- 🟡 FOMC held 3.50–3.75% Wednesday on a 9–3 vote with three hawkish dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) — long-dated yields jumped, Dow fell >2% (worst session since April 2026)
- 🟢 Oversold AI-infrastructure bounce: NBIS, CRWV, AXTI, SMCI all gapping up sharply after being hammered Wednesday in the chip-sector correction
- 🟡 NVDA lagging its own complex: −3.55% today even as NQ and the AI-infrastructure names it enables bounce hard — still digesting $250B OpenAI financing-guarantee reports
- 🔴 Tonight’s earnings: Amazon and Apple (Tim Cook’s final call as CEO) both report after today’s close — a third straight night of mega-cap earnings risk
Sources: CNN Fear & Greed Index, TradingView futures charts, CNBC/Yahoo Finance market recaps, company earnings releases
Overall Economic Summary
Today is a relief-rally day riding on the back of Microsoft’s blowout Q4 print — but it is also stacked with genuine event risk of its own. Microsoft beat Wednesday’s close with EPS of $4.74 versus a $4.33 estimate on revenue of $90B (+18% YoY), with Azure cloud revenue crossing $100 billion for the first time and a strong Q1 FY2027 forecast; the stock jumped roughly 8–9% in premarket trade Thursday. That stood in stark contrast to Meta, which missed on EPS ($6.18 vs. $7.17 est.), reported a 91% collapse in quarterly free cash flow, and fell more than 9% after hours — helping tip the Nasdaq-100 into technical correction territory Wednesday alongside a broad chip-sector selloff (Qualcomm −5.1%, Arm −7%+ premarket). The divide between the two prints has crystallized the market’s central debate: which AI spenders are actually monetizing the buildout, and which are just burning cash on faith.
The Fed itself added to Wednesday’s volatility: the FOMC held its target range at 3.50–3.75% on a 9–3 vote, with three members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissenting in favor of a hike — an unusually split committee that sent long-dated yields higher and the Dow down more than 2%, its worst session since April 2026. Today layers on more macro data before the bell: Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), GDP, Personal Income/Spending, and Initial Jobless Claims all land at 8:30 AM ET, giving markets a fresh read on the inflation and growth backdrop just one day after the Fed’s decision. Overnight in Asia, the memory-chip complex extended its rout — Japan’s Nikkei shed nearly 4% and South Korea’s KOSPI plunged roughly 6% as SK Hynix and Samsung both posted steep double-digit declines on mounting skepticism about near-term AI infrastructure ROI, even as US futures (led by NQ) are bouncing hard this morning on oversold positioning.
Geopolitics remains the wildcard. The Iran war is actively widening rather than cooling: after Iran’s intercepted missile attack on US forces in Jordan, US Central Command carried out a “heavy wave” of overnight strikes on IRGC targets across Iran, and Egypt has now confirmed a drone struck two natural gas vessels at one of its ports — pulling a new country directly into the conflict’s economic fallout. Iran has vowed to “punish the aggressor” today. Oil spiked violently overnight (Brent above $85, WTI above $83) before cooling slightly into this morning (WTI $83.35, −1.31%; Brent $87.03, −1.24%) as markets balance the war premium against today’s data and earnings calendar. Tonight brings the next act: Amazon and Apple (Tim Cook’s final earnings call as CEO) both report after the close, marking a third consecutive night of mega-cap earnings following Microsoft’s beat — any disappointment from either name risks erasing today’s bounce before tomorrow’s open.
Market Sentiment
ES1! is +0.67%, NQ1! is leading at +1.45%, and YM1!/RTY1! confirm at +0.52%/+0.61% — a clean BULLISH regime read across all four indices this morning, and per today’s instructions I’m filtering long setups only. This is an oversold-bounce day: names hammered hardest in Wednesday’s chip-sector correction (NBIS, CRWV, AXTI, SMCI, MRVL) are gapping up on real RVOL, while Microsoft’s blowout beat gives the “AI actually monetizes” camp its best evidence yet. Amazon is set up as a pre-earnings continuation long into tonight’s print, and SpaceX (SPCX) and Nvidia (NVDA) are both being played as reversal/bounce longs off recent weakness within the same AI complex. Caveats: Core PCE/GDP/Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM and an actively widening Iran war (fresh Egypt drone strike overnight) can each independently reverse this bounce — keep size disciplined and don’t hold full risk into tonight’s Amazon/Apple earnings.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims (wk. Jul 25) | 201K | 187K | MED |
| 8:30 AM | GDP (Q2, advance/second estimate) | — | — | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM | Personal Income / Spending (Jun) | +0.3% / +0.4% | +0.7% / +0.7% | MED |
| 8:30 AM | 🔴 Core PCE Price Index (Jun) — Fed’s preferred gauge | +0.1% MoM | +0.3% MoM | HIGH |
| TBD | Iran War Escalation Headlines — monitor throughout session | — | — | HIGH |
| After Close | 🔴 Amazon (AMZN) Q2 Earnings | Rev. $196.97B (+18%) · EPS $1.82 | — | HIGH |
| ~5:00 PM | 🔴 Apple (AAPL) Q3 FY26 Earnings — Tim Cook’s final call as CEO | Rev. $108.75B (+15.6%) · EPS $1.88 | — | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
Azure crossed $100B in quarterly revenue for the first time, and the Q1 FY2027 forecast came in strong — directly addressing the market’s AI-capex-ROI concerns with hard numbers rather than promises. Stock jumped ~8-9% in Thursday premarket. Anchors Top 5 long #1 (user-specified).
Stock pulled back to $226.65 (−1.82%) Wednesday before recovering to $230.37 overnight ahead of tonight’s print. Investors will scrutinize AWS growth, custom-chip progress, and free cash flow after Q1’s ~95% YoY FCF collapse on AI capex. High-risk, high-reward pre-earnings positioning long. Anchors Top 5 long #2 (user-specified).
Tim Cook’s final earnings call as CEO, alongside CFO Kevan Parekh. Not a Top 5/Secondary pick today but a major overnight volatility risk for the broader tape given the size of the name and the timing collision with Amazon on the same evening.
Shares fell ~9.6% after hours on a disappointing revenue outlook and collapsing free cash flow, dragging the Nasdaq-100 into technical correction Wednesday and pressuring chip names (QCOM −5.1%, ARM −7%+). Included here as context only — no short setups today per instructions, but this is the “AI-spend-skeptic” side of the divide MSFT’s beat is being measured against.
⚡ Also watch: Samsung Electronics is expected to report later this week, a key read-through for the SK Hynix/Samsung/KOSPI memory-chip complex that sold off sharply overnight (Nikkei −4%, KOSPI −6%).
Key Events Today
🛒🍎 Big Tech Earnings Collision — Amazon + Apple
A third consecutive night of mega-cap earnings following Microsoft’s blowout Wednesday. Amazon needs to show AWS growth and a free-cash-flow recovery; Apple’s report is also Tim Cook’s last call as CEO. Either name disappointing risks reversing today’s entire relief rally overnight.
🇮🇷 Iran War Widening — Egypt Pulled In
After the US’s “heavy wave” of overnight strikes on IRGC targets, Iran has vowed to “punish the aggressor” today, and Egypt has confirmed a drone struck two natural gas vessels at one of its ports — a new country now directly affected. Oil spiked overnight before cooling slightly into this morning; any fresh escalation headline can reprice energy and risk sentiment within minutes.
📊 Core PCE + GDP + Jobless Claims
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (Core PCE) lands one day after Wednesday’s split 9–3 FOMC hold, alongside GDP and Initial Jobless Claims. A hot print would validate the three hawkish dissents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) and pressure both yields and today’s relief rally; a soft print supports the case for the committee’s hold and today’s bounce.
💻 MSFT Beat vs. META Miss — The AI Divide
Microsoft’s Azure beat and Meta’s free-cash-flow collapse crystallized the market’s central AI debate overnight. Today’s long setups lean into the “monetization is real” camp (MSFT, and the broader hyperscaler-capex-beneficiary group: ORCL, MRVL, GLW, AMD) rather than the capex-without-proof side of the trade.
Top 5 Movers
Research Themes
🟢 AI Infrastructure Oversold Bounce
NBIS (+9.84% pre-mkt after −12.65% Wednesday), CRWV (+7.0% after −9.6%), and AXTI (+6.9% after −13.5%) were all hammered in Wednesday’s chip/AI-infrastructure correction and are now bouncing hard together this morning as NQ leads today’s relief rally. SMCI (+3.5% pre-mkt) and MRVL (+3.6% pre-mkt, RVOL 6.97×) round out a confirmed five-name group. This is a classic oversold short-covering setup — real, but fragile until it holds through the session.
🔵 AI CapEx Winners — Post-MSFT-Beat Rotation
Microsoft’s blowout Azure beat is the strongest evidence yet that hyperscaler AI capex is translating into real revenue — directly contrasting Meta’s cash-flow collapse the same evening. The “benefit” side of that divide extends to cloud/infrastructure names positioned to keep riding continued hyperscaler spend: ORCL (cloud/OCI momentum), MRVL (custom silicon), GLW (optical connectivity for data centers), and AMD (data-center GPU demand). This is the anchor theme for today’s long bias — betting on monetization proof over capex-on-faith.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | PM Gap % | PM Vol | Beta / ATR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTI | AXT Inc | $36.97 | +6.92% | 205K | β3.35 / ATR $8.55 | Highest RVOL on today’s entire scanner (5-min RVOL 4.22×). InP substrate shortage theme continues to support the name even as it bounces from Wednesday’s −13.5% day. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc. | $60.82 | +7.00% | 914K | β3.01 / ATR $6.92 | Core AI-infrastructure/Neocloud name bouncing alongside NBIS after a −9.6% day Wednesday. RVOL 3.04× (5-min) confirms real participation. Long on strength, respect the still-elevated volatility. |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | $163.40 | +3.62% | 272K | β1.54 / ATR $19.55 | Custom-silicon AI-capex-winner name still working back from a −6.34% Wednesday, but 5-min RVOL of 6.97× is the third-highest reading in today’s entire scanner (behind only AMZN and MSTR) — genuine institutional accumulation. Ties into the MSFT-beat “AI CapEx Winners” theme. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Corporation | $58.60 | +2.78% | 280K | β3.31 / ATR $6.82 | Space-sector complement to SPCX — repeat strong performer on this scanner historically. Modest gap today but Beta and ATR both support inclusion; long on continuation with the SPCX bounce thesis. |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $81.88 | +2.71% | 2.18M | β3.39 / ATR $8.41 | Highest absolute pre-market volume of any name in today’s scanner and day volume of 152M — a foundry/AI-beneficiary name benefiting from the same “AI capex winners” rotation as MSFT/ORCL/MRVL. Long on ORB breakout. |
⚠️ Long-only day per instructions — no short setups included. Names excluded from today’s long list despite appearing on the scanner: IREN (+7.74% pre-mkt, β3.52, still a valid oversold-bounce name but bumped from the standalone Secondary Movers list today), SMCI (ATR $2.47 below preferred floor despite the AI-infra bounce theme), AMD (+4.27% pre-mkt but lower RVOL/ATR than the five names above).
Themed Movers
NBIS (+9.8%), CRWV (+7.0%), AXTI (+6.9%), SMCI (+3.5%), and MRVL (+3.6%, RVOL 6.97×) were all crushed in Wednesday’s chip/AI-infrastructure correction (each down sharply on the day) and are bouncing together this morning as NQ leads the broader relief rally. Five names confirm the theme — this is a genuine sector-wide short-covering event, not an isolated single-stock move.
Microsoft’s Azure beat ($100B+ quarterly revenue crossed for the first time) directly countered Meta’s cash-flow collapse the same evening, crystallizing the market’s “who’s actually monetizing AI” debate. MSFT itself, plus cloud/infrastructure beneficiaries ORCL, MRVL, GLW, and AMD, represent the long side of that divide — names positioned to keep benefiting from continued hyperscaler capex commitments rather than being punished for spending without proof.
Session Playbook
A hot PCE print would validate Wednesday’s three hawkish FOMC dissents and could cap today’s relief rally before the open; a soft print supports continuation. Avoid adding fresh size in the 5 minutes surrounding 8:30 AM.
MSFT should be watched for a hold above today’s open — a fade back toward yesterday’s close would flag the beat as already priced in. NBIS, AXTI, and MRVL are the highest-conviction oversold-bounce longs; let the 5-min opening range complete before entering on a breakout with RVOL confirmation.
SPCX and NVDA both need to reclaim their opening range lows with volume to validate the bounce-off-weakness thesis — these are the higher-risk, contrarian names in the Top 5. AMZN should be traded as an intraday-only continuation long ahead of tonight’s print; do not plan to hold size overnight.
With Amazon reporting after the close and Apple’s call at ~5 PM, this is the highest-risk overnight window of the week. Take profits or reduce size on any earnings-adjacent long by 3:55 PM unless using a defined-risk options structure. The Iran war headline risk is also live throughout the session — stay nimble on energy-sensitive names.
Overnight Intelligence
🌏 Asia / Pacific
🌍 Middle East / Macro
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Thu Jul 30 | TODAY — Core PCE/GDP/Jobless Claims 8:30 AM · Amazon + Apple earnings after close · Iran war widening A relief-rally day built on Microsoft’s beat, but stacked with fresh macro data and a third straight night of mega-cap earnings risk. |
| Fri Jul 31 | Month-End Rebalancing · Reaction to Amazon/Apple earnings · Samsung earnings expected Markets digest tonight’s Big Tech prints; a clean AWS/AAPL beat could extend this week’s tech bounce, while any disappointment risks reviving Wednesday’s correction. End-of-month flows may add volatility. |
| Mon Aug 3 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) First major August economic read. Also watch for weekend Iran conflict developments and continued Korean chip-sector stabilization signals. |
| Tue Aug 4 | JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) · Factory Orders Continued read on labor-market softness following this week’s jobless-claims data and the Fed’s split decision. |