TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 5:05 AM PT
Growth tech leads on SpaceX IPO euphoria. Energy crushed by Iran deal oil collapse (WTI −4.5%). Defensive rotation fully unwinding. Breadth positive with 7 of 11 sectors green or flat. Source: ~est. pre-market; ETF price action as of 5:05 AM PT.
- S&P futures +0.42% pre-market, Nasdaq +0.5% — regime firmly bullish (+10 pts)
- VIX ~18.5, declining from June 9 panic high of 20.45 — volatility normalizing (0 pts)
- Newsletter tone bullish: SpaceX IPO euphoria + Iran deal de-escalation catalyst (+8 pts)
- Crypto proxies surging (MSTR +7%, IREN +8.9%) — risk appetite elevated (+5 pts)
- May CPI Core 0.2% MoM / 2.9% YoY beats expectations — Fed path less restrictive (+5 pts)
- U of M consumer sentiment remains depressed (1-yr inflation expectations 4.8%) — headwind (−6 pts)
Three concurrent catalysts are driving today’s risk-on tone. First, SpaceX lists on Nasdaq at $135 — the largest IPO in market history at a $1.75 trillion valuation — absorbing over $250 billion in demand and injecting genuine euphoria into the growth-tech and space ecosystem. Second, President Trump announced the U.S. has “made a great settlement of the war with Iran,” sending WTI crude crashing 4.5% to $83.80 and Brent to $86.45. The implied removal of a geopolitical risk premium is a tailwind for both inflation expectations and consumer sentiment. Third, last week’s May CPI print — Core up just 0.2% month-over-month (2.9% YoY) — came in cooler than April’s 0.4% reading, signaling that the tariff-driven inflation spike may be peaking.
The prior session delivered a broad recovery: Dow +1.86%, S&P +1.75%, Nasdaq +2.54%. Markets are in a bounce from the June 4–8 selloff that took SPY from ~$760 to $725, and today’s catalysts provide the narrative fuel to extend the move — though SPY must first reclaim $748 (50-day MA) and then the $756 wick-sweep zone before the structural trend flips fully bullish.
Bullish: Space & defense tech (SPCX IPO halo lifts RKLB, ASTS, LUNR), Bitcoin proxies (BTC rally driving MSTR, IREN, MARA), AI infrastructure (semis recovering on hyperscaler CapEx guidance of $600–720B for 2026). Hyperscalers guided for 36–70% YoY AI CapEx growth — the AI buildout thesis remains structurally intact.
Bearish: Energy sector in freefall (XLE −3.8%); avoid XOM, CVX, COP today. ADBE gapping down ~5.6% on post-earnings ARR miss + CFO departure — clean short setup. Consumer sentiment is historically weak (U of M 1-yr inflation expectations at 4.8%, up from 3.4% pre-Iran conflict in February) — watch the 10am ET print for surprise risk.
Key Risk Events: University of Michigan Sentiment at 10am ET (consensus ~58 est.) and the SpaceX opening trade at 10am ET. Both hit simultaneously — expect volatility in the first 10 minutes post-open.
Regime is BULLISH. S&P 500 futures are up ~0.42% (+31 points, ~7,427), Nasdaq futures +0.5%, Dow futures +0.3%. Filtering long setups first today — one sanctioned short (ADBE) is included per session playbook. The recovery off the June 4–8 selloff lows is gathering momentum, led by SPCX IPO euphoria and Iran geopolitical de-escalation. Yesterday’s session was the third consecutive green day for the index.
Three consecutive green 4H candles off PDL. Price holding equilibrium at $742. Must clear 50-day MA (~$748) for conviction. Premium zone $758–760 is the FOMC catalyst target.
Holding equilibrium at $721. “Long Lifeline” label at this zone signals institutional support. SPCX IPO is a direct tech/Nasdaq catalyst — QQQ should lead SPY today.
Sources: CNBC, Investing.com, TheStreet · ~est. = estimated pre-market value · All data as of ~5:00 AM PT June 12, 2026
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 AM | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) June preliminary reading. 1-year inflation expectations at 4.8% (rose from 4.7%). Watch for further deterioration from depressed consumer mood — could inject volatility just as SPCX opens. |
~58 ~est. | 57.9 | HIGH |
| All Day | SpaceX (SPCX) IPO — Nasdaq Debut Quotation begins 9:50 AM ET. Trading eligible at 10:00 AM ET. Largest IPO in history at $135/share (~$1.75T valuation). Opening print will set tone for the entire growth-tech complex. |
$135 IPO | N/A | HIGH |
| TBD | US–Iran Peace Deal Finalization Trump says deal could be signed “in Europe this weekend.” 14-point framework includes Iran reopening Strait of Hormuz within 30 days and US lifting oil sanctions. Watch for headlines mid-session. |
Positive | Ongoing | MED |
Adobe beat on both EPS and revenue — reporting record Q2 revenue of $6.62B (+13% YoY / +11% constant currency). However, the stock dropped ~5.6% in after-hours due to disappointing Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth metrics that signal slowing AI monetization. The gap between headline beats and ARR softness suggests the market no longer gives Adobe the benefit of the doubt on its AI integration story.
Compounding the selloff: CFO Dan Durn announced departure effective June 15, creating an execution and credibility overhang. With SPCX sucking all the IPO oxygen out of the room, ADBE’s gap-down is unlikely to get any buy-the-dip support today. Watch the gap fill for a clean short entry below the prior close. See Top 5 for full setup.
The most anticipated IPO in market history opens for trading at 10:00 AM ET (quotation begins 9:50 AM). Priced at $135/share, SpaceX raised ~$75 billion in proceeds and carries a ~$1.75 trillion implied valuation — putting it alongside Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon in the $1.5T+ club. Demand exceeded $250 billion, with retail orders alone topping $100 billion. Trading at 94× 2025 revenue.
President Trump says a 14-point peace framework with Iran could be signed “in Europe this weekend,” after calling off a planned attack and signaling Iran has “accepted the text.” The deal includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days in exchange for US lifting oil sanctions. WTI crude is already pricing in the agreement at $83.80 (−4.5%). Risk-on equities are the primary beneficiary; energy majors are the loser.
June preliminary consumer sentiment print hits simultaneously with SPCX’s market debut — creating a double catalyst window at 10am. 1-year inflation expectations already rose to 4.8% (from 4.7% last month), the highest since the Iran conflict began. A print below 55 could briefly pressure the broader market despite the SPCX euphoria. A beat (above 60) adds fuel to the rally.
Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is the first with Kevin Warsh as Chair. The market is closely watching whether Warsh signals a hawkish posture given elevated inflation expectations (4.8%), or pivots to a more neutral tone following the Iran de-escalation and cooling May CPI (Core 2.9% YoY). Rate hike risk is priced low but not zero. Position sizing over the weekend should account for this event risk.
SpaceX’s Nasdaq IPO at $135/share is the single largest IPO in market history, raising ~$75 billion and implying a ~$1.78 trillion valuation. Demand exceeded $250 billion — retail orders alone surpassed $100 billion. Trading eligible at 10:00 AM ET per Nasdaq announcement. Elon Musk retains ~85% voting control. Starlink connectivity generated $11.39B in 2025 (61% of total revenue), growing to 69% in Q1 2026.
This is a once-in-a-generation liquidity event. With no direct SpaceX proxy available pre-IPO, institutional and retail capital has been piling into RKLB, ASTS, and LUNR for months. Today, the direct vehicle arrives. Regime is bullish; momentum and narrative are peak-aligned. Risk-on sentiment from the Iran deal adds macro fuel. There is literally no other story today.
IPO Price: $135.00 (key psychological anchor — below this = weak open, danger zone; above = momentum trigger). Expect a wide opening range (±10–15%) given IPO volatility. Bias: Long above $135 with opening range confirmed. 20/50/200-day MAs: N/A (first trading day). ATR: ~est. $10–20 on day one given historical large-cap IPO volatility profiles. VWAP will develop intraday and become the key level by 11am ET.
Support: $135.00 (IPO price — institutional defense level), $120–125 (10% below IPO, common first-day flush zone). Resistance: $150–155 (10–15% above IPO, typical first-day euphoria target), $175+ (bull case from TradingKey’s 90-day model). Watch for heavy supply at round numbers ($140, $145, $150).
N/A — first trading day. No prior accumulation/distribution history. Treat as a news-driven momentum event, not a structural setup.
⚠️ Do NOT trade SPCX in the first 10 minutes of the open. Let price discovery happen. Watch the opening range set between 10:00–10:05 AM ET. Enter on the break of the opening range high with volume confirmation. The play is the momentum continuation trade, not the open print itself. IPO stocks are known for violent reversal after the initial pop. Size accordingly.
EchoStar holds the most structurally direct tie to SpaceX of any public stock: it agreed to sell its AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses to SpaceX for a total of ~$17 billion — up to $8.5B in cash plus up to $8.5B in SpaceX stock. When SPCX opens and price-discovers upward, EchoStar’s balance sheet is marked-to-market on that SpaceX equity stake in real time. The stock closed Thursday up 11.19% to $128.13 on SPCX IPO pricing news, then gapped another +5.48% pre-market Friday to ~$135.15 — almost exactly SPCX’s $135 IPO price, a psychologically charged alignment retail is already amplifying.
SATS is the highest-conviction SpaceX derivative available in public markets. Unlike RKLB or ASTS — which are sentiment/halo plays — SATS will literally hold SpaceX equity on its books. Every dollar SPCX trades above $135 directly increases the value of EchoStar’s $8.5B SpaceX stock component. This is mechanically linked arbitrage, not narrative. Two consecutive days of institutional accumulation (+11.2% Thursday, +5.5% Friday pre-market) with expanding volume. Benzinga flagged it as the top SpaceX IPO momentum trade of the week, and StockTwits reported SATS had its best single day of the year on Thursday.
Pre-market: ~$135.15. Prior close (Thu): $128.13. Gap: +$7.02 (+5.48%). Bias: Long above $132–133 VWAP on open. Key intraday levels: $135 (pre-market anchor — holds as support if SPCX opens strong), $140 (first target), $145–148 (extended target on SPCX euphoria). Stop: below $128 (Thursday close / gap fill). ATR ~$7.50 ~est.
Support: $132–133 (VWAP), $128.13 (Thu close / gap edge), $115–118 (pre-buzz base). Resistance: $135 (psychological / SPCX price coincidence), $140 (round number), $148–150 (next structural ~est.). SPCX’s opening print will mechanically drag SATS in the same direction.
Markup Phase — two consecutive accumulation days with expanding volume tied to a dateable, quantifiable catalyst (SPCX IPO). Highest-conviction markup in the space complex today.
CoreWeave is the pure-play AI GPU cloud — it operates massive GPU clusters (primarily Nvidia H100/H200) purpose-built for AI training and inference workloads. The hyperscaler CapEx supercycle is the mechanical driver: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle have guided combined 2026 CapEx of $600–720 billion, with ~75% targeting AI infrastructure. CoreWeave sits directly in that spending stream as an overflow provider when hyperscalers hit GPU capacity constraints. Today’s risk-on regime + Iran deal (lower energy costs = better GPU farm margins) + broad AI infrastructure recovery makes CRWV the institutional-grade AI infrastructure long.
CRWV is gapping +3.92% to $99.49 pre-market, approaching the critical $100 round-number level that has acted as a magnet since its IPO. The 52-week range is $63.80–$187.00, meaning current price at ~$99 is well off highs — value within a growth name. 23 analyst Buy ratings with an average 12-month price target of $140.18 (~+41% upside) provides a fundamental anchor for momentum traders. On a risk-on day led by AI/tech (SpaceX IPO is a tech-capital catalyst), CRWV is the cleanest AI infrastructure expression in the preferred sector universe.
Pre-market: ~$99.49. Prior close: ~$95.74. Gap: +$3.75 (+3.92%). Bias: Long above $98–99 VWAP, targeting $100 breakout. Key intraday levels: $100 (major round number — watch for both resistance and breakout trigger), $103–105 (first target above $100), $110 (secondary target). Stop: Below $95.74 (prior close / gap fill). ATR ~$5.50 ~est. Day range seen recently: $91.02–$96.51.
Support: $97–98 (pre-market VWAP area), $95.74 (prior close), $91 (recent session low). Resistance: $100.00 (round number — the key breakout level), $105, $115 (prior swing ~est.), $187 (52-week high — longer-term target).
Re-accumulation — recovering from the $63 IPO-era lows toward the $100 reclaim. A clean break above $100 with volume signals the next markup leg toward the analyst consensus of $140.
Triple catalyst stack: (1) SpaceX IPO halo — institutional rotation into publicly-listed space plays accelerates as SPCX lists, (2) Recent Nasdaq-100 inclusion provides a mechanical index-rebalancing tailwind with passive fund buying, (3) RKLB is the best-in-class SpaceX alternative — the only US company with its own orbital launch vehicle, launch pads on two continents, and a Neutron rocket development pipeline that directly competes with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 market share.
RKLB has been the best pre-IPO SpaceX proxy trade of 2026, up 412% over the past year. With the direct play now listing, one scenario is rotation OUT of RKLB into SPCX — but the more likely scenario is fresh space-sector capital flowing in, lifting all boats. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion adds a completely separate, non-correlated mechanical buy pressure. This is the confirmed two-day winner per historical performance (Best trade May 8 AND May 11 2026).
Bias: Long above VWAP on open. Key levels: Watch the prior day close as gap reference. ATR ~$1.80 — target 1.5–2× ATR above the gap. 5-min RVOL at open is the key conviction signal. If RVOL ≥ 3× in first 5 minutes, this is an A+ continuation trade. Stop: below opening range low.
Support: Prior close (gap edge), 20-day MA ~est. Resistance: Round numbers above gap, prior swing highs from May 2026 rally.
Likely in Markup Phase — prior consolidation base broken, index inclusion confirmed institutional accumulation. SpaceX IPO is the re-acceleration catalyst.
Adobe reported Q2 FY2026 on June 11 after the close. Despite beating EPS ($5.96 vs. $5.94 est.) and revenue ($6.62B vs. $6.58B est., +13% YoY), the stock collapsed ~5.6% in after-hours. The culprit: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth is slowing — the market’s preferred read-through for AI monetization progress. Additionally, CFO Dan Durn announced his departure effective June 15, injecting leadership uncertainty just as Wall Street needs execution confidence.
The classic “beat and retreat” pattern. Revenue beats are being discounted; ARR deceleration signals that Adobe’s AI tools (Firefly, Acrobat AI) are not yet converting to accelerating subscription growth. With SPCX sucking every dollar of marginal capital toward growth/momentum, ADBE’s valuation compression trade is clean. No institutional catalyst to buy the dip today. CFO departure is a “sell first, ask questions later” event.
Pre-market price: ~$395 ~est. (gap down from ~$419 ~est. prior close). Gap: ~−$24 (−5.6%). Bias: Short below VWAP, targeting gap continuation. Key levels: $395 (opening reference), $385–388 (first target, prior support ~est.), $375 (second target). Stop: Above $402 (above gap-down open). ATR ~$12.
Resistance: $400 (round number / gap edge), $405–408 (gap fill partial), $419 (prior close — no interest in going there). Support: $388 (first technical level ~est.), $375 (key prior support zone ~est.), $360 (major structural support).
Distribution phase — gap-down after earnings is a classic markdown trigger. ARR miss + CFO departure accelerates the distribution timeline.
SpaceX’s $1.75T Nasdaq debut is the most significant capital market event since the Nvidia AI breakout. With 94× revenue at IPO, the market is pricing in a Space Supercycle driven by Starlink’s 69%-of-revenue growth trajectory, Starship’s reusability breakthroughs, and SpaceX’s AI investment arm. RKLB and ASTS are the best liquid proxies for traders who want space exposure without IPO day volatility. LUNR holds via NASA commercial contract flow. PL (Planet Labs) adds a data/imaging angle. Watch for SPCX-specific ETFs launching in weeks — institutional vehicle creation = sustained demand.
Bitcoin is rallying to ~$107K overnight, powered by the same risk-on regime driving equities — Iran de-escalation removes a tail risk that had been keeping institutional crypto allocators sidelined. IREN’s +8.9% is the headline, but the entire BTC proxy ecosystem is moving in unison: MSTR +7.16%, MARA +4.64%, RIOT and CLSK likely similar. The key distinction today: IREN leads because it has BOTH the BTC miner leverage AND the AI cloud pivot story — it’s not just a crypto proxy anymore. MSTR is the highest-leverage pure BTC expression. Size the one that best fits your conviction on BTC continuation.
WTI crashing 4.5% to $83.80 on Iran deal headlines is the most significant geopolitical macro print of the year. When oil drops this fast, the reflex trade is: short energy (XLE ETF or individual names CVX, COP, XOM), go long consumer discretionary (lower gas prices = more consumer spending), and lean into AI infrastructure (energy costs for data centers are a major OpEx item — oil falling is a tailwind for hyperscaler margins). Do NOT short individual energy names today as the shorts may already be full — XLE as a vehicle is cleaner. The energy-to-tech rotation is the macro trade of June 2026.
| Ticker | Company | Price (~est.) | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | ~est. | +4–6% ~est. | ~400K+ ~est. | SpaceX IPO halo + BlueBird satellite launch confirmed for June 17 gives it a near-term operational catalyst beyond pure sector sentiment. 437% YTD performer — treat with discipline. |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | ~est. | +3–5% ~est. | ~200K+ ~est. | NASA commercial lunar program partner — SpaceX IPO validates the commercial space ecosystem. More fundamentally grounded than RKLB/ASTS but lower beta. Good secondary name if Top 5 space plays are extended. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group N.V. | ~$232.35 | +4.55% | ~est. 300K+ | European-rooted AI infrastructure pure-play (+160% YTD) with major contracts from Meta and Microsoft. Expanding UK data centers. Catches risk-on AI capital flow alongside US names. 12-month analyst PT: $241.71. Clean long on AI infrastructure theme day. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | ~est. | +1–2% ~est. | ~2M+ ~est. | Broad AI infrastructure recovery + hyperscaler CapEx guidance ($600–720B for 2026 guided). Prior week’s selloff created a reset. Today’s risk-on opens the door for a trend continuation attempt above the 50-day MA. Highest liquidity name on the board. |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | ~est. | +1–2% ~est. | ~1M+ ~est. | Semiconductor recovery trade — beneficiary of Iran deal (lower energy costs for chip fabs) and AI inference demand cycle. Trades at a discount to NVDA and catches up on risk-on days. Watch for gap and go above VWAP in the first 30 minutes. |
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Sat Jun 13 | US–Iran Deal Signing Expected (Europe) Trump says deal could be formalized over the weekend in Europe. Full details of 14-point framework including Hormuz reopening timeline and oil sanction removal to be disclosed. Monday open will react to whether deal holds or falls through. |
| Mon Jun 15 | ADBE CFO Dan Durn Departs; SPCX Day 2 Trading First Monday after the SpaceX IPO — day 2 price discovery. Watch for institutional rebalancing flows. ADBE CFO exit formalizes. Markets also digesting weekend Iran deal headlines. Energy sector will gap based on deal confirmation or collapse. |
| Tue Jun 16 | Empire State Manufacturing Index; Retail Sales (May) Economic data week begins. Retail sales will show whether consumer spending held up through the Iran conflict period. Empire State manufacturing gives a pulse on industrial activity. FOMC blackout period in effect — no Fed speak. |
| Wed Jun 17 | ASTS BlueBird Satellite Launch + FOMC Day 1 AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird launch is confirmed for June 17 — a direct operational catalyst for ASTS independent of SpaceX sentiment. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting begins (Day 1 of 2) with Kevin Warsh presiding for the first time as Chair. Rate decision + statement + Warsh press conference on June 18. |
| Thu Jun 18 | FOMC Rate Decision + Warsh Press Conference; Housing Starts The most important macro event of the month. Kevin Warsh’s first rate decision as Fed Chair. Market pricing implies hold (98% probability ~est.) but Warsh’s tone on 4.8% inflation expectations and the Iran deal oil shock will set the summer outlook. Any hawkish surprise = growth selloff. Housing Starts also due. |
| Thu Jun 19 | Juneteenth — US Market Holiday (Closed) NYSE and Nasdaq closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day. Plan positions accordingly — no trading Thursday June 19. Post-FOMC positions from Wednesday will carry overnight with no intraday management possible. |
| Fri Jun 20 | Quad Witching + June Options Expiration Options, futures, and index derivatives all expire — historically the highest-volume session of the quarter. Expect elevated volatility, gamma squeezes, and intraday reversals. This week’s SPCX options chain will be especially active given IPO-week positioning. Plan for wide swings in both directions. |