TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
BEARISH9 of 11 sectors positive pre-market as Dow rotation lifts defensives and energy; tech and consumer discretionary the notable exceptions ahead of the 8:30 ET jobs report.
- Futures: S&P -0.50%, Nasdaq -1.11% → -10 pts. Tech-led sell-off, chip stocks continue lower.
- VIX: 16.27 (+3.17%) → 0 pts. Elevated but not panic; 15–20 is neutral zone.
- Newsletter tone: Bearish/cautious from Yahoo Finance, Reuters, CNBC → -5 pts.
- CNN Fear & Greed: Estimated Fear territory → ~35 baseline.
- Semi sell-off: AVGO -12.6% Thu driving sector-specific fear.
- Implication: Short-side morning; tech and crypto proxies are the primary hunting ground.
The dominant story this morning is the aftershock from Broadcom’s (AVGO) historic single-day wipeout — a $290B market cap destruction after its Q2 earnings showed AI chip growth of 143% YoY but guidance that failed to satisfy the most aggressive investor expectations. The sell-off has cascaded across the semiconductor complex: Marvell Technology, Micron, Intel, and dozens of smaller chip names are under pressure as the market recalibrates AI infrastructure spending timelines.
The macro backdrop adds a second major variable: May nonfarm payrolls drop at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus sits around 80–93K new jobs, a meaningful slowdown from April’s 115K print. JPMorgan warns S&P could swing 1%+ in either direction. A weak number could confirm labor market cooling and reignite recession fears, accelerating selling in growth names; a beat could bring some relief buying to Dow/Russell but is unlikely to rescue the semiconductor sector.
Counterintuitively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high Thursday, and the Russell 2000 also set a record — powered by financial stocks (+2.7%), healthcare (+3%), and energy, all benefiting from positive Middle East ceasefire signals. WTI crude is up 2.59% this morning as those same signals wavered overnight, and oil stocks may see intraday volatility. The “Who needs tech?” rotation is alive, but for momentum traders, this is a short-side morning in high-beta growth.
Regime: BEARISH. S&P 500 futures are trading -0.50%, Nasdaq 100 futures -1.11%, and Dow futures a token +0.08%. The Nasdaq is firmly in the red as chip stocks bear the brunt of the Broadcom fallout — filtering short setups only this morning. The primary risk event is the 8:30 AM ET jobs report, which will set the day’s tone and could extend or reverse the tech unwind. Trade the reaction, not the anticipation.
Largest single-day red candle of the post-April rally; high-volume bearish engulfing that swept but held above the $733.26 wick level, closing near the session low from a run deep into the Premium zone (~$760). Despite the selloff, SPY remains above all rising MAs (ST ~$740, INT ~$718), so the broad uptrend structure is technically intact — a pullback, not a reversal.
Significantly weaker than SPY at −4.80% — nearly double the broad market’s loss, confirming the Nasdaq bore the brunt of the Broadcom-triggered chip selloff. Critically, QQQ closed below its wick sweep level ($711.83), ending the session at $705 with volume its largest in weeks and the momentum oscillator posting its sharpest red spike since the CHoCH in early April. Short-term MA (~$718) is now above price — flipped to resistance.
| Time (ET) | Event | Estimate | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM ET | Nonfarm Payrolls (May) | 85K | 115K (Apr) | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM ET | Unemployment Rate (May) | 4.3% | 4.3% | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM ET | Avg Hourly Earnings (MoM) | +0.3% | +0.3% | HIGH |
| 10:00 AM ET | U. Michigan Sentiment (Jun prelim) | 53.5 | 52.2 | MED |
Watch: Will $120 psychological support hold or will the opening print break into new 52-week lows?
VWAP anchor: ~$330 (prior close)
Opening range: $310–$320
20-day MA: ~$300 (~est.)
50-day MA: ~$285 (~est.)
200-day MA: ~$220 (~est.)
ATR(14): $20.62
Bias: SHORT below $320 VWAP rejection
Support: $310 (round number, pre-mkt anchor)
Support: $295 (psychological)
Resistance: $320 (prior close VWAP)
Resistance: $330 (gap fill level)
VWAP anchor: ~$130 (pre-open est.)
Opening range: $122–$128
52-week low: ~$110 (~est.)
ATR(14): $4.77
Bias: SHORT below $130 VWAP; watch capitulation at $120
Support: $120 (round/psychological)
Support: $115 (prior 52-week lows ~est.)
Resistance: $128–$130 (VWAP, gap fill)
Resistance: $135 (pre-announcement level)
VWAP: ~$45 (~est.)
Opening range: $42–$45
20-day MA: ~$40 (~est.)
ATR(14): $4.22
Bias: SHORT below $45 VWAP rejection
Support: $42 (round number, pre-run level)
Support: $40 (psychological/prior consolidation)
Resistance: $45 (VWAP anchor)
Resistance: $46–$47 (gap fill zone)
VWAP: ~$115 (~est.)
Opening range: $108–$114
50-day MA: ~$95 (~est.)
200-day MA: ~$60 (~est.)
ATR(14): $8.07
Bias: SHORT below $114 VWAP
Support: $108 (round number)
Support: $100 (major psychological)
Resistance: $114–$115 (VWAP)
Resistance: $118 (prior close area)
VWAP: ~$64 (~est.)
Opening range: $60–$64
20-day MA: ~$55 (~est.)
ATR(14): $5.19
Bias: SHORT below $64 VWAP rejection
Support: $58 (round number)
Support: $55 (prior consolidation)
Resistance: $64 (VWAP)
Resistance: $66–$67 (pre-gap level)
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Setup Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVTS SHORT | Navitas Semiconductor | $30.67 | -4.30% | 299K | High-beta GaN/SiC semi (Beta 3.62) caught in broad chip sell-off; EV power chip exposure adds second headwind from EV sector slowdown. |
| POET SHORT | POET Technologies | $15.47 | -4.04% | 274K | AI optical interconnect play fading with semiconductor sector; 274K pre-mkt vol and Beta 2.42 make it tradeable on VWAP rejection. |
| MSTR SHORT | Strategy Inc (MicroStrategy) | $129.37 | -2.62% | 249K | Borderline -2.62% gap but crypto proxy mandate makes it relevant; Bitcoin at 4-month lows compresses all BTC proxies; Beta 2.43, ATR $10.57. |
| SMCI SHORT | Super Micro Computer | $46.90 | -2.78% | 176K | AI server plays caught in semi crossfire; SMCI’s AI infrastructure narrative fighting the Broadcom headwind; Beta 2.57. |
| WOLF SHORT | Wolfspeed | $67.06 | -4.86% | 106K | SiC semiconductor weakness on EV deceleration fears + broad chip sell-off; thinner vol (106K) but Beta 2.91 makes it worth watching on opens near VWAP. |
| Date | Event & Significance |
|---|---|
| Mon Jun 8, 2026 | Quiet open; post-jobs data digestion; SpaceX IPO week begins — expect space sector volatility to pick up |
| Tue Jun 10, 2026 | CPI (May) — HIGH IMPACT. Inflation print will shape FOMC expectations and tech/growth narrative for the next 4–6 weeks |
| Wed Jun 11, 2026 | PPI (May); FOMC 2-day meeting begins; pre-SpaceX IPO positioning expected to accelerate in space names |
| Thu Jun 12, 2026 | FOMC Rate Decision (no change expected) | SpaceX IPO — potential market-wide catalyst for space stocks (RKLB, ASTS, PL, LUNR) | Initial Jobless Claims |
| Fri Jun 13, 2026 | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June prelim); options expiration week begins — increased volatility across all names |
| Next Week | SpaceX post-IPO digestion; CPI/FOMC aftermath; potential semiconductor sector mean-reversion if NVDA and AMD stabilize |