TRDX Daily US Market Briefing ● BULLISH
updated 8:08 AM PT
Wick Sweep reclaimed: ~737.01 ✓ — buyers stepped in at the June 5 capitulation low.
Support: 737.00 (wick sweep), 735.00, 730 (50-period MA ~est.)
Resistance: 748–750 (breakdown zone), 752–755, 757–760 (prior ATH area)
Volume Profile POC: ~757 (above current price — overhead supply)
Next-candle bias: Bullish push toward 748–750; must reclaim to restore trend.
Wick Sweeps reclaimed: ~709.16 ✓ & ~711.83 ✓ — double sweep = strong reversal signal.
Support: 708–710 (wick sweep zone), 700 (psychological)
Resistance: 720, 728–732 (gap-fill zone), 740+ (pre-selloff breakdown)
Volume Profile POC: ~740 (significant overhead supply)
Next-candle bias: Bullish push toward 720–722; AI names leading the charge.
Sector Heatmap
Market Bias
- Futures: SPY +1.01%, QQQ +2.03% → regime-level bullish (+20)
- VIX 21.51 — elevated, geopolitical premium baked in (−10)
- Reuters/Yahoo newsletters: cautious on rate hike, bullish on tech (+5)
- Scanner RVOL: Multiple names 3–6× — institutional conviction (+6)
- CNN Fear & Greed: ~50 (recovering from Friday fear sell-off) (+5)
Overall Economic Summary
Friday’s May jobs report landed hot — stronger than expected — reigniting Fed rate hike fears and triggering the deepest single-day selloff in weeks. Tech and semiconductors bore the brunt as rate sensitivity repriced. Today’s session opens with a sharp reversal: the market is deciding that the AI infrastructure buildout is structurally disconnected from Fed cyclicality, and the MRVL S&P 500 inclusion announcement (June 22 effective) is forcing passive fund front-running in real time.
Layered on top, the Iran-Israel ceasefire has collapsed. Israel struck Iranian petrochemical facilities overnight; Iran responded with missile barrages. WTI is at $93.67 (+3.46%) and Brent at $96.05 (+3.18%). This creates a bifurcated tape: energy rips on supply fear while consumer/financial names drag on stagflation risk. Defense proxies and nuclear energy stocks are benefiting from the “energy security = national security” narrative.
Apple kicks off WWDC today with AI Intelligence 2.0 expected. SpaceX prices its $1.77T IPO Thursday evening, trading begins Friday — the space sector is already pricing in enthusiasm, as RKLB, LUNR, and ASTS all gap up in sympathy. The week’s overarching theme: AI infrastructure acceleration is unstoppable, even in a rate-hike-fear environment.
Market Sentiment
Regime is BULLISH. S&P 500 futures are at +0.26% (index ~7,420), Nasdaq futures at +0.60% (index ~29,200), and the Dow is mildly negative at −0.21% (index ~50,828) — the Dow divergence reflects energy-sector drag on consumer names and financial rate sensitivity. Using SPY (+1.01% to $742.77) and QQQ (+2.03% to $714.55) as the primary regime indicators — both above their June 5 wick-sweep lows — filtering LONG setups only today. The AI-semiconductor complex is driving the Nasdaq’s outperformance; the Iran-Israel escalation creates a geopolitical ceiling but is not overriding the tech momentum. Risk management note: VIX at 21.51 demands tight stops — the tape can reverse fast if ceasefire news breaks.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Week | Apple WWDC 2026 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference — Day 1 keynote today; AI Intelligence 2.0 announcements expected |
— | — | HIGH |
| All Day | Middle East Conflict Watch Iran-Israel ceasefire collapse; IDF airstrikes on Iranian petrochemical facilities; oil supply disruption risk |
— | — | HIGH |
| Pre-market | Campbell’s (CPB) Earnings Being replaced in S&P 500 by MRVL on June 22; earnings report creates index transition flow dynamics |
EPS ~est. | — | LOW |
| Mon–Thu | SpaceX IPO Roadshow Final roadshow days before pricing Thursday June 11 at $135/share ($1.77T valuation); trading begins Friday June 12 as SPCX on Nasdaq |
$135 | — | HIGH |
| No data today | No major US economic data releases scheduled for Monday, June 8. Light calendar — price action driven entirely by geopolitical and corporate catalysts. | |||
Today’s Earnings
Campbell’s is being removed from the S&P 500 on June 22 (replaced by MRVL). This earnings report carries unique flow dynamics — index funds will be net sellers of CPB between now and expiration of the replacement date, creating a structured selling overhang regardless of earnings quality. Trader interest is minimal; CPB is a consumer staples name outside our preferred sectors. Watch for any index-transition-related volatility.
51 total earnings reports scheduled today; no other preferred-sector names reporting.
Key Events Today
Top 5 Movers ▲ BULLISH — Long Setups Only
Research Themes
Session Playbook
🟢 First 30 Minutes (9:30–10:00 ET)
MRVL will gap high and likely need 10–15 minutes to find its opening range around $258–265; the initial print is less important than where VWAP forms. NVDA at $200 psychological: hold above = trend day up; break below = risk-off rotation starting. NBIS watch: if 5-min RVOL holds above 2.5× at open, the AI cloud thesis is confirmed and you can lean long toward $235. NNE will be volatile; wait for the 5-min ORB to form before entering.
🟡 Mid-Session (10:00–12:00 ET)
Apple WWDC keynote begins ~10 AM PT (1 PM ET) — watch AAPL and any AI-partnership name for real-time reaction. If Apple announces expanded NVDA or MRVL silicon integration, the whole AI complex gets a second leg. SMCI will either confirm its VWAP or fade — if it’s above $42 at 10 AM, it’s a valid continuation hold. Energy names (XLE) may see profit-taking as geopolitical headlines stabilize; don’t chase oil-proxy names after the initial spike.
🔴 Risk Management
VIX at 21.51 demands hard stops — use ATR(14) as your stop guide: 0.5× ATR for tight, 1× ATR for wide. The geopolitical wildcard (Iran-Israel ceasefire news) can snap the tape in either direction with zero warning. Do NOT hold through sudden volume spikes in either direction without a clear catalyst context. Rate hike fears remain in the background — any Fed speaker hawkish comment today will hit rate-sensitive names (XLRE, XLF) immediately.
🎯 Today’s Priority Setup
MRVL long on VWAP reclaim is the highest-conviction setup of the day. Index inclusion = structured institutional buying for 14 days. The setup: wait for price to pull back to VWAP (~$255–260 area), then buy the reclaim with a stop below $253. Target the pre-market high and beyond toward $275–280. This is a multi-day trade disguised as a day trade — size accordingly. Secondary conviction: NBIS above its pre-market high on 2.5× RVOL confirmation, and NNE above its 5-min opening range high.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | IREN Limited | $54.35 | +4.05% | 758K | Bitcoin miner and AI data center operator — dual narrative beneficiary. High beta (3.93) crypto proxy with 758K pre-market vol is the highest absolute volume in the secondary tier. Long on risk-on days; RVOL 2.44×. |
| FLNC | Fluence Energy, Inc. | $22.91 | +3.71% | 193K | Grid-scale energy storage — direct beneficiary of both the AI data center power demand surge and the Iran-Israel oil supply shock driving energy security urgency. Beta 3.28, RVOL 3.06×, ATR $3.09. Clean energy infrastructure with institutional backing (AES + Siemens). Energy security = AI power security narrative. |
| RDW | Redwire Corporation | ~est. | ~est. | ~est. | Space infrastructure — deployable solar arrays, in-space manufacturing, satellite structures. SpaceX IPO week halo play alongside RKLB, LUNR. Redwire supplies critical hardware for both commercial and government space programs; SpaceX’s $1.77T IPO reprices the entire space hardware supply chain. ~est. pre-market data; confirm levels at open. |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. | ~est. | ~est. | ~est. | Fintech / crypto brokerage — benefits from elevated retail and institutional trading volumes on volatile recovery days. HOOD’s crypto segment (Robinhood Crypto) rides alongside IREN/COIN on the BTC proxy narrative. High-beta growth fintech that re-rates with any market sentiment recovery. Confirm gap and volume at open; ~est. pre-market data. |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines, Inc. | $29.36 | +6.20% | 253K | Lunar economy + SpaceX IPO sector halo. Highest gap in secondary tier (+6.20%). Beta 3.10, ATR $4.67 — expect 10–15% intraday range on space-sector narrative. Pure SpaceX IPO week beneficiary. |
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Mon Jun 8Today | Apple WWDC Day 1 Keynote — AI Intelligence 2.0, iOS/macOS announcements (~10 AM PT) SpaceX roadshow continues; Iran-Israel geopolitical monitoring; light US economic calendar |
| Tue Jun 9 | Apple WWDC Day 2 — Developer sessions, platform deep-dives SpaceX IPO final roadshow; watch for any Fed speaker commentary on rate hike timing |
| Wed Jun 10 | Apple WWDC Day 3 — Continued sessions; potential incremental AAPL AI partnership disclosures CPI data watch (if scheduled); MRVL S&P 500 pre-inclusion buying intensifies |
| Thu Jun 11 | SpaceX IPO Pricing — After Close — $135/share, $1.77T valuation, 555.6M shares Space sector names (RKLB, LUNR, ASTS) expected to peak on pricing hype; consider trimming into close |
| Fri Jun 12 | 🚀 SPCX First Day of Trading on Nasdaq — Largest IPO in market history begins trading SpaceX proxy stocks expected to react to SPCX opening print; potentially volatile for entire space sector |
| Jun 22 | MRVL S&P 500 Inclusion Effective Date — Passive funds complete mandatory MRVL purchases Potential “buy the rumor, sell the news” date for MRVL — consider trimming long exposure into June 22 |
Overnight Intelligence
US Futures & Fixed Income
- S&P 500 Futures: 7,419.75 (+0.26%)
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: 29,200.75 (+0.60%)
- Dow Jones Futures: 50,828 (−0.21%)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.54% (elevated — rate hike fear from hot May jobs report)
- VIX: 21.51 (geopolitical premium, above 20 = elevated)
- DXY (Dollar Index): ~104 (~est.)
Commodities
- WTI Crude: $93.67 (+3.46%) — Iran petrochemical strikes driving supply fear
- Brent Crude: $96.05 (+3.18%) — approaching $100 psychological level
- Gold: ~$4,365 (+~0.5%) — safe-haven bid on geopolitical risk
- Key watch: Strait of Hormuz remains partially restricted from prior conflict phases
Asia & Europe Overnight
- Asia: Mixed — South Korea (KOSPI) positive on NVDA/SK Group deal; Japan Nikkei neutral
- China: Cautious; AI chip export control tensions with US persist
- Europe: Defense stocks and energy names positive; DAX/FTSE flat to mildly up on Iran-Israel energy premium
- European banks: Mild pressure on rate hike repricing
Geopolitical & Macro
- Iran-Israel: Ceasefire collapsed — IDF struck Iranian petrochemical facilities in southwestern Iran; Iran fired missile barrages at Israel in response. Oil +3% on supply disruption risk.
- SpaceX: Google AI compute multi-year deal announced ahead of $1.77T IPO. Largest IPO in history prices Thursday.
- Fed Watch: May jobs report (stronger than expected) reignited rate hike speculation — Reuters/Yahoo newsletters leading with “coming rate hike” narrative. Next Fed meeting: watch for any FOMC speaker this week.
- CHIPS Act: Intel grant expansion confirmed for Ohio/Arizona fabs through 2027.