TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
BULLISH-LEANING
Thursday, May 14, 2026 · Pre-Market Edition
QQQ ~$716–717 · S&P Futs +0.27%
NVDA Earnings May 20 · China 90-day Tariff Pause Active
Sector Heatmap
XLK
Technology
+1.3%
SMH
Semis
+1.8%
XLC
Comm Svcs
+0.6%
XLE
Energy
+0.4%
XLF
Financials
+0.1%
XLI
Industrials
–0.1%
XLY
Cons Disc
–0.2%
XLV
Healthcare
–0.2%
XLB
Materials
–0.2%
XLP
Cons Stpls
–0.3%
XLU
Utilities
–0.7%
XLRE
Real Estate
–0.9%
Technology and semis lead — XLK +1.3%, SMH +1.8% on NVDA (+2.3%) and MRVL (+2.8%) pre-market strength. AI infrastructure bid is the engine. Rate-sensitive sectors (Utilities, Real Estate) pressured by 10Y yield at 4.46% after yesterday’s hot PPI (+6.0% YoY). Breadth is narrow but the sector that matters most is clearly bullish. All values estimated pre-open.
Market Bias
65
BULLISH-LEANING
Extreme BearBearNeutralBullExtreme Bull
- S&P futures +0.27%, Nasdaq +0.24%: QQQ ~$716–717. AI-led tech carrying the market. Score: +3
- VIX 18.98: Elevated but inside the 15–20 neutral band — not flashing systemic risk. Score: 0
- NVDA earnings May 20: Pre-earnings mechanical bid flowing through all AI-adjacent names. Score: +3
- China 90-day tariff pause + QCOM CEO at Beijing summit: Geopolitical tailwind for semis with China revenue. Score: +2
- PPI +6.0% YoY (May 13, released): Very hot pipeline inflation — narrows Fed cut window. Score: –2
- Retail Sales 8:30 AM (live today): Key data wildcard — either direction creates volatility. Score: 0 (pending)
Overall Economic Summary
The macro backdrop into May 14 is a tension between stubborn inflation and AI-driven growth momentum. April CPI printed +3.8% YoY (released May 12) — above the Fed’s 2% target but slightly below the +3.9% estimate, providing brief relief. That was followed by April PPI at +6.0% YoY yesterday — the hottest producer-level inflation in years — driven by energy goods (+2.0% MoM) and services (+1.2% MoM), with core PPI accelerating +1.0% vs a +0.4% estimate. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.463% — elevated but stable — suggesting bond markets see no imminent Fed cuts. The Dollar (DXY ~98.40) is softening on China trade optimism, providing a modest tailwind for multinationals. WTI at ~$101 and Brent ~$104.60 keep cost pressures elevated, while Gold at $4,702 continues its structural bull run as an inflation hedge. Against this, equity markets are being carried by one dominant theme: the AI infrastructure capex supercycle. Every major hyperscaler raised 2026 data center budgets — that bid is flowing through NVDA, MRVL, and the entire picks-and-shovels chain. Today’s Retail Sales at 8:30 AM is the key live variable for whether the bid broadens or stays narrow.
Market Sentiment
AI semiconductor bid (NVDA +2.3%, MRVL +2.8%, SMH +1.8%) broad-based in PM+4 pts
China tariff pause active; QCOM CEO at Beijing summit — semi sector geopolitical tailwind+2 pts
VIX 18.98 — elevated but inside neutral band; no panic signal0 pts
Retail Sales 8:30 AM — live data wildcard, either direction = volatility0 pts
PPI +6.0% YoY (May 13) — very hot pipeline inflation; narrows Fed cut window–2 pts
LUNR earnings miss (–$0.25 vs –$0.07 est); INTC fading after 5× run — supply in recent winners–1 pt
Net Score: +3 — Bullish-Leaning · AI theme overriding macro noise; long bias favoured across the tape
Key Market Stats
S&P 500 Futs
~5,641
+0.27% PM
Nasdaq Futs
~20,190
+0.24% PM
Dow Futs
~41,500
Flat
10Y Yield
4.463%
↑ Post-PPI
VIX
18.98
Neutral Band
WTI Crude
$100.99
~Flat
Brent Crude
~$104.60
~Flat
Gold
$4,702
Inflation bid
DXY
98.40
↓ China trade
S&P 500 (Close)
~7,445
May 13 est.
Economic Calendar — May 14, 2026
| Time (ET) | Event | Estimate | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM ⚡ | Retail Sales (April) | +0.3% MoM | +1.4% MoM | HIGH — Strong = rate fear; soft = growth fear. Key session pivot. |
| 8:30 AM | Trade Price Indices (April) | Import Prices +0.4% | +0.1% | MED — Tariff pass-through monitor; relevant with China trade context. |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories (March) | +0.2% | +0.3% | LOW — Lagging indicator; minimal market impact. |
| ✔ May 12 | CPI (April) — Released | +3.7% YoY | ACTUAL: +3.8% YoY / +0.6% MoM | Slightly above estimate; market absorbed and moved on. |
| ✔ May 13 | PPI (April) — Released | Core +0.4% MoM | ACTUAL: +6.0% YoY / Core +1.0% MoM | Very hot — core 2.5× estimate; pipeline inflation concern, Fed cuts pushed further out. |
Today’s Earnings
LUNR
BMO
Intuitive Machines, Inc.
EPS: –$0.25 actual vs –$0.07 est (miss $0.18) · Rev: $186.7M vs $203M est (miss $16.3M)
Stock was +99% YTD into the print — classic sell-the-news reaction. Positives: first-ever positive Adj. EBITDA (+$2.7M) and record $1.1B backlog. However the EPS and revenue misses are significant. –5.3% PM on 1,074K vol / 4.96× RVOL. The record backlog and space sector bid on a bullish day create a potential dip-buy opportunity once initial selling exhausts — watch for stabilization in the first 30 minutes.
CSIQ
BMO
Canadian Solar Inc.
Net loss –$0.71/share · Revenue $1.1B (top of guidance) · Gross margin 25.1%*
*Gross margin includes $93M one-time tariff refund — strip it and underlying margin is ~16.4%. Operating cash burn of $209M on inventory build. CEO transition announced. –11.0% PM on 544K vol / 5.74× RVOL (highest on scanner). Not a buy-the-dip candidate today given the severity of the gap and underlying fundamentals.
Key Events Today
Retail Sales — April 2026 ⚡
8:30 AM ET — Bureau of Census
Consensus +0.3% MoM after +1.4% prior. Strong consumer = rate pressure; weak = growth worry. Either direction likely creates a 9:30 open with conviction — know your bias beforehand.
QCOM CEO at Beijing Summit
All Day — Trump business delegation to China
Qualcomm CEO joins the U.S. business delegation. Any tariff deal or chip export relief headline is an immediate catalyst — QCOM could reverse its –2.85% PM gap sharply. Keep a live news feed open for Beijing headlines.
NVDA Earnings Countdown
6 Trading Days — Reports May 20 AMC
The pre-earnings bid is structural. Q1 FY2027 print on May 20 — Blackwell demand and data center margins are the key metrics. Every dollar into AI semis today is partially a pre-NVDA positioning move.
CSIQ Q1 2026 Earnings Call
8:00 AM ET
Q1 results pre-released. Earnings call may drive further reaction in Canadian Solar and the broader clean energy/solar sector. No long setup today.
Top 5 Movers Bias: Long-Dominant (4L / 1S) · Regime: BULLISH-LEANING
NVDA LONG
NVIDIA Corporation · AI Semiconductors — Mag 7 · Rank #1
$225.83 close
▲ +2.25% PM → ~$231.12
Catalyst
Q1 FY2027 earnings in 6 trading days (May 20) — pre-earnings positioning bid is in full effect. Blackwell GPU demand reportedly exceeding supply; every hyperscaler (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN) raised 2026 data center capex. 37-analyst consensus: Strong Buy, avg PT $272. AI infrastructure theme is the dominant market narrative and NVDA is its anchor. 4.07M PM volume — largest absolute volume on the entire scanner.
Levels & Bias
Pre-market: ~$231.12. Opening range: $229.00–$235.00. VWAP anchor from yesterday: ~$222–225. ATR(14): $6.92. LONG — hold above $228 opening range low; first target $237, extended $243 into the close. Add on 5-min closes above the opening range high with RVOL ≥ 2×. Do not chase if gapping >3% above pre-market level at open.
Key Levels
Support: $226.00 (yesterday’s close / gap fill), $222.00 (prior consolidation). Resistance: $237.00 (intraday target), $243.00 (extended pre-earnings momentum target).
MRVL LONG
Marvell Technology, Inc. · AI Custom Silicon — Preferred Sector · Rank #2
$177.95 close
▲ +2.84% PM → ~$183.00
Catalyst
Bank of America raised PT from $156 → $205 on record FY2026 revenue of $8.2B (+42% YoY), with AI data center silicon now representing 73% of revenue. AMD disclosed a $11.6M equity stake in MRVL — partnership signal. Designs custom AI accelerators, optical interconnects and networking silicon for hyperscalers. Next earnings May 28. 4.25× RVOL with preferred-sector AI tailwind = high-conviction long today alongside NVDA.
Levels & Bias
Pre-market: ~$183.00. Opening range: $181.00–$186.00. VWAP anchor from yesterday: ~$175–178. ATR(14): $9.64. LONG — hold above $180 opening range low; first target $190, extended $196. VWAP reclaim on any first dip is the primary entry trigger. $180 is the key intraday support.
Key Levels
Support: $180.00 (range low / psychological), $175.00 (prior VWAP anchor). Resistance: $190.00 (first target / round number), $196.00 (extended / BofA PT zone).
WOLF LONG
Wolfspeed, Inc. · SiC Power Semiconductors — AI Infrastructure / EV Power · Rank #3
$62.60 close
▲ +3.79% PM → ~$65.00
Catalyst
WOLF is gapping up +3.79% PM following a massive +16.53% session yesterday — SiC semiconductor momentum is accelerating on AI power infrastructure and EV drivetrain demand. Wolfspeed is the dominant domestic supplier of silicon carbide wafers; China tariff pause and CHIPS Act tailwinds are directly supportive. Beta 3.16 on a bullish semi day means outsized intraday moves relative to the sector. High-momentum continuation setup with sector confirmation from NVDA and MRVL.
Levels & Bias
Pre-market: ~$65.00. Opening range: $63.50–$66.50. VWAP anchor: ~$64–65. ATR(14): $5.93 — wide daily range on a high-beta name. LONG — buy any opening range breakout above $66.50 with 5-min confirmation; first target $70.00, extended $73–74 on sustained semi bid. Stop below $62.00 (below prior close). Wait for first 5-min candle to set the range before committing.
Key Levels
Support: $63.50 (opening range low), $62.00 (prior close / hard stop). Resistance: $66.50 (opening range high / breakout trigger), $70.00 (first target), $73.00–74.00 (extended target on sector momentum).
FPS LONG
Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. · Data Center Power Infrastructure — AI Picks & Shovels · Rank #4
$45.52 close
▲ +12.83% PM → ~$51.36
Catalyst
Forgent Power Solutions designs and manufactures electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid and energy-intensive industrial facilities — a direct picks-and-shovels play on the AI infrastructure buildout. The +12.83% PM gap on 5.25× RVOL (tied for highest on scanner) with no apparent negative catalyst suggests institutional accumulation or a news catalyst driving the bid. Lower Beta (1.17) limits intraday velocity but the gap magnitude is notable. Look for the catalyst at open.
Levels & Bias
Pre-market: ~$51.36. Opening range: first 5-min candle defines the day — use high/low for direction. ATR(14): $2.56 (pre-gap; will expand given the move). LONG — buy the opening range breakout above the 5-min high with volume confirmation; first target ~$55.00, extended ~$58.00. Do not buy the open blind on a +12% gap. Stop: 5-min low of the first candle.
Key Levels
Support: Opening range low (set at open), $48.00 (gap fill 50% area). Resistance: $55.00 (first target / round number), $58.00 (extended breakout target).
VIK LONG
Viking Holdings Ltd. · Luxury Travel / Cruise — Risk-On Consumer Bid · Rank #5
scanner gap up
▲ gap up PM
Catalyst
Viking Holdings (ocean & river cruises) benefits directly from the China 90-day tariff pause and the broader risk-on consumer travel bid. Luxury travel demand remains structurally resilient — Viking targets the affluent 55+ demographic with no kids-onboard positioning, commanding strong pricing power and high repeat-booking rates. On a bullish-leaning tape with global travel names bid, VIK offers a cleaner long than lower-quality travel names.
Levels & Bias
LONG — buy opening range breakout above the first 5-min high with RVOL confirmation. Target VWAP fill then continuation. Trail stop to breakeven once first target hit. Avoid chasing opens that gap further without a consolidation base — wait for a flat 5-min candle before entry.
Key Levels
Entry: above first 5-min candle high (opening range breakout). Stop: below opening range low. Targets: VWAP (first), then prior close level (extended). Size conservatively given no hard news catalyst — this is a regime / sector play.
Research Themes
🤖 AI Infrastructure Pre-Earnings Positioning — Blackwell Cycle Accelerating Toward May 20
NVDA reports Q1 FY2027 in six trading days. The pre-earnings bid is structural: every major hyperscaler raised 2026 data center capex, and Blackwell GPU supply is reportedly insufficient to meet demand. Second-order plays are catching the overflow bid — MRVL (custom AI silicon, networking silicon, 73% data center revenue), FPS (electrical distribution for data centers), WOLF (SiC power for AI infrastructure). Best double expression today: NVDA + MRVL. Watch NVDA $237 as the intraday conviction pivot — sustained above that level = add to MRVL.
NVDAMRVLFPSWOLFAMDAVGOANETVRT
🇨🇳 China Trade Reopening — Semi Names With China Revenue Exposure Structurally Bid
The 90-day US-China tariff pause is creating a multi-week structural bid in semiconductors generating significant China revenue. QCOM (~60%), INTC, WOLF, and others have direct exposure. QCOM’s CEO is in Beijing today at a Trump-led summit; any tariff deal or chip export relief headline is an immediate hard catalyst. This is why QCOM is a dip-buy long rather than a short today — the downside gap is noise against the potential upside from a Beijing deal. The broader theme is still early innings: if the summit produces deal frameworks, expect a sustained multi-session bid in the entire China-exposed semi complex.
QCOMINTCWOLFMRVLSMHSOXX
🚀 Space Economy — Earnings Dip After a Massive Run Creates a Tactical Entry
LUNR reports a Q1 miss today (EPS –$0.25 vs –$0.07 est) after a +99% YTD run. The initial sell-the-news reaction (–5.3% PM, 1.07M vol) is expected. However, on a bullish-leaning regime day, the record $1.1B backlog, first-ever positive Adjusted EBITDA, and NASA/DoD space sector tailwind make LUNR a potential dip buy once the initial selling exhausts — typically 15–30 minutes into the session. The RKLB A+ prototype (May 8 and 11 wins) suggests the space sector bid is intact. LUNR is not a blind buy at open — wait for price action confirmation, stabilization above the opening range low, and a 5-min RVOL compression before entering.
LUNRRKLBASTS
Secondary Movers All Long — Bullish Regime
| Ticker | Company | Gap % | PM Vol | RVOL | Beta | Dir | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOLFWolfspeed | SiC Semiconductors | +3.79% | 303K | 1.70× | 3.16 | LONG | Continuing the prior session’s +16.5% earnings recovery. Beta 3.16 = high velocity on any breakout. Caution: RVOL 1.70× is thin — confirm above 2× in the first 5 minutes before adding. Long above opening range high; first target $66, extended $70. Stop below $60. ATR $5.93. |
| OKLOOklo Inc. | Nuclear / AI Energy | –2.38% | 227K | 3.70× | 2.66 | SHORT | –2.38% PM gap down with –5.39% prior session — two-day distribution pattern. 3.70× RVOL on a down move indicates institutional selling pressure, not buying. High Beta 2.34 accelerates moves in both directions; fade the open into VWAP. SHORT — sell any dead-cat bounce into the $70–71 VWAP zone; first target $66, extended $64. Stop above $72. ATR $6.62. |
| CSCOCisco Systems | Networking / AI Infrastructure | gap up | — | — | 1.07 | LONG | AI networking infrastructure play — Cisco’s ethernet fabric and data center switching stack benefits directly from hyperscaler AI buildout. Lower-beta name (1.07) but consistent bid on risk-on days. Preferred as a steady AI infrastructure compounder. Opening range breakout long; scale in above opening range high. Watch for broad AI sector momentum confirmation before entry. |
| LUNRIntuitive Machines | Space Tech | –5.27% | 1,074K | 4.96× | 3.02 | SHORT | Earnings miss — EPS –$0.25 vs –$0.07 est. –5.27% PM with 1,074K volume (4.96× RVOL) = heavy institutional exit. Post-earnings gap-downs of this magnitude with outsized volume rarely recover on the open day. SHORT — fade any early bounce into the $37–38 area; first target $33, extended $30. Stop above $39. High beta 3.02 means moves are sharp — trail stop aggressively once in profit. ATR $2.96. |
| INTCIntel Corporation | Semiconductors / Foundry | –3.73% | 2,854K | 2.17× | 2.34 | SHORT | Highest-volume short candidate on the scanner (2.85M PM volume — 2nd overall). Stock quintupled on stacked catalysts (Tesla 14A, Google ASIC, Apple mfg, NVDA equity stake, CHIPS Act) and is now in distribution above $120. –3.73% PM on heavy vol = smart-money exit. SHORT — fade bounces into $119–120 VWAP zone; first target $111, extended $107. Stop above $121. Size appropriately given broad semi sector bid today. ATR $7.51. |
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Fri May 15 | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May prelim) Inflation expectations component watched closely post-hot PPI. Weak consumer confidence read could weigh on risk sentiment Friday and into the weekend. |
| Mon May 18 | Empire State Manufacturing (May) + Beijing Summit Aftermath Regional activity gauge; also first full trading day post-Beijing summit — any deal frameworks that emerged over the weekend hit Monday’s open. Watch for QCOM, INTC, WOLF gap moves. |
| Tue May 19 | Housing Starts + Building Permits (April) Rate-sensitive sector monitor; DXY and yield trajectory from this week set the backdrop. Key for XLRE and XLU names. |
| Wed May 20 ⚡ | NVDA Q1 FY2027 Earnings — The Event of the Month Every AI/semi name in today’s briefing has exposure to this print. Watch Blackwell revenue, gross margin trajectory, Q2 guidance, and hyperscaler capex read-through. Pre-earnings bid (today’s NVDA long) converts to post-earnings reaction play. Key metrics: data center revenue, Blackwell mix, and forward gross margin guidance. |
| Thu May 21 | Initial Jobless Claims + Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Labour market and regional manufacturing; context for Fed rate path. Post-NVDA earnings hangover or continuation — likely the biggest vol session of the week. |
| Wed May 28 ⚡ | MRVL Q1 FY2027 Earnings Next major catalyst for today’s #2 pick. BofA PT $205 sets high expectations — AI silicon revenue and hyperscaler customer concentration will be key focus. Today’s BofA upgrade is building the pre-earnings bid; same playbook as NVDA. |
Full Scanner — May 14, 2026 Pre-Market Gappers (Updated)
| # | Ticker | Close | Gap % | PM Vol | RVOL 15-min | 1D Chg% | Beta | ATR | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDA | $225.83 | +2.25% | 4,074K | 3.15× | +2.29% | 1.69 | $6.92 | $5.49T |
| 2 | FPS | $45.52 | +12.83% | 356K | 5.25× | +5.84% | 1.17 | $2.56 | $13.9B |
| 3 | MRVL | $177.95 | +2.84% | 356K | 4.25× | +8.18% | 1.65 | $9.64 | $155.6B |
| 4 | WOLF | $62.60 | +3.79% | 303K | 1.70× | +16.53% | 3.16 | $5.93 | $3.0B |
| 5 | NCLH | $16.06 | +2.43% | 250K | 3.02× | +0.37% | 1.70 | $0.92 | $7.4B |
| 6 | INTC | $120.29 | –3.73% | 2,854K | 2.17× | –0.27% | 2.34 | $7.51 | $604.6B |
| 7 | OKLO | $69.66 | –2.38% | 227K | 3.70× | –5.39% | 2.66 | $6.62 | $12.1B |
| 8 | QCOM | $213.17 | –2.85% | 548K | 3.71× | +1.36% | 1.65 | $14.59 | $224.7B |
| 9 | LWLG | $18.22 | –4.36% | 186K | 2.70× | +14.34% | 2.46 | $1.93 | $2.7B |
| 10 | LUNR | $35.68 | –5.27% | 1,074K | 4.96× | +11.19% | 3.02 | $2.96 | $7.8B |
| 11 | CSIQ | $20.05 | –10.97% | 544K | 5.74× | +3.30% | 2.39 | $1.29 | $1.4B |