TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 9:15 AM ET
Futures Chart Technical Analysis
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — the tape is extending Tuesday’s record-close breakout on a genuine beat-and-raise earnings parade (SHOP, ANET, UPST, KTOS, DIS) rather than a single headline, while hopes for an imminent Hormuz deal keep oil and yields contained. A hold above 7,771 (today’s low) keeps the push toward fresh price discovery alive.
Support: 7,771.00 (today’s low) → 7,628.75 (Wick Sweep) → 7,530.25 (secondary Wick Sweep)
Resistance: 7,805.25 (today’s high) → open air into fresh highs beyond the Premium zone
Next-candle bias: BULLISH but the day’s laggard among the four — NVDA’s premarket gain on TSMC/Foxconn AI-demand read-through and continued chip-sector strength (MU/AVGO/MRVL at 52-week highs) is offset by SPCX’s capex-driven rout and softness in AMZN on the Bezos share-sale filing. A reclaim of today’s high (29,990) opens a retest of the 30,000 round number.
Support: 29,776.50 (today’s low) → 29,577.50 (Wick Sweep/Long Lifeline) → 28,750 structural
Resistance: 29,990.00 (today’s high) → 30,000 psychological → Premium zone beyond
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — DIS’s earnings beat (parks + streaming strength) and the broader beat-and-raise parade keep this cyclical-heavy index leading; continued Hormuz-deal optimism and stabilizing oil remove another overhang. Holding above 54,342 (today’s low) keeps the breakout intact.
Support: 54,342 (today’s low) → 52,804 (former Wick Sweep, now support) → 51,732 structural
Resistance: 54,558 (today’s high) → fresh highs beyond the Premium band
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — small-cap breadth continues to confirm the rally isn’t purely mega-cap driven, with KTOS and UPST (both small/mid-cap Top 5 names) contributing directly. A close above 3,057.7 (today’s high) opens a retest of the July high.
Support: 3,048.2 (today’s low) → 2,900 structural → 2,820
Resistance: 3,057.7 (today’s high) → 3,068.4 (July high)
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Technology leads as NVDA’s supply-chain read-through and the AI-chip complex (MU/AVGO/MRVL at 52-week highs) extend Tuesday’s breakout, with ANET’s beat-and-raise reinforcing the AI-networking sub-theme. Consumer Discretionary firms on DIS’s earnings beat and SHOP’s blowout quarter. Communication Services is the session’s clear laggard as SPCX’s capex-driven rout (compounded by today’s lockup expiry) outweighs NFLX’s modest gain. Financials are roughly flat to lower as CRCL’s earnings miss/downgrade offsets general sector steadiness. Industrials extend Tuesday’s Dow-led strength; Energy is only mildly negative as oil stabilizes off the Iran-relief crash rather than resuming it. ~est. from pre-market ETF proxies and scanner sector tags.
Market Bias
- 🟢 All four index futures green again: ES +0.44% (leads), YM +0.39%, RTY +0.29%, NQ +0.19% — slower pace than Tuesday’s 900-point Dow surge, but a genuine continuation
- 🟢 Broad beat-and-raise earnings parade: SHOP (+26–28% PM on a Q2 blowout), ANET (Q3 op-margin guide 48–49%), UPST (back to GAAP profitability), KTOS (double beat, raised FY26 guide), DIS (EPS beat on parks/streaming)
- 🟢 NVDA advances on supply-chain read-through: TSMC monthly sales +30%, Foxconn record July revenue (+54.2% YoY) on AI-server demand
- 🟢 Chip complex extends Tuesday’s AMD-driven rally: MU, AVGO, MRVL all hit fresh 52-week highs
- 🟡 Iran/Hormuz deal “could come as early as today” per Trump, but an unidentified projectile struck a cargo ship near the strait overnight — real headline risk remains live
- 🔴 SpaceX (SPCX) down over 11% pre-market — Q2 revenue beat overwhelmed by capex 39% above estimates, compounded by today’s ~$116B lockup expiry
- 🔴 Circle Internet (CRCL) misses EPS and gets downgraded to Underweight by Morgan Stanley (PT cut to $38 from $106) on stablecoin margin pressure
- 🟡 Amazon down ~2.3% Tuesday after Bezos disclosed plans to sell 15M shares (~$4.07B) — a sentiment overhang, not an operational issue
- 🟡 VIX ticking up to 16.84 (+2.12%) — a mild caution flag inside an otherwise risk-on tape
Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Yahoo Finance Live Markets Blog, Benzinga, CNN Fear & Greed Index, TradingView futures/VIX/DXY/oil/US10Y charts, pre-market scanner data
Overall Economic Summary
The market is extending Tuesday’s record-close breakout — the Dow closed above 54,000 for the first time ever (+907 points, +1.71%) and the S&P 500 also set a fresh record, with the Nasdaq Composite surging 2.59% — but this morning’s continuation is being driven by breadth rather than a single headline. Shopify’s Q2 print is the standout: revenue of $3.58B beat the $3.45B estimate by 34% year-over-year growth, adjusted EPS of $0.42 topped forecasts, gross merchandise volume climbed 32% to $115.57B, and management guided Q3 growth into the low-30s percentage range versus the Street’s 26.3% estimate — shares are up 26–28% pre-market. Arista Networks beat on both lines (EPS $1.02 vs. $0.89 est., revenue $3.04B +37.7% YoY) and guided Q3 non-GAAP operating margin to 48–49%, directly confirming the AI-networking demand story that also has Marvell, Broadcom and Micron trading at fresh 52-week highs after Tuesday’s blockbuster AMD print. Upstart returned to GAAP profitability with originations up 50% YoY and a record $193M contribution profit, while Kratos Defense posted a double beat (revenue $458.8M vs. $410.4M est., EPS $0.21 vs. $0.14 est.) and raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.75–1.81B on a $2.08B backlog. Disney topped EPS estimates ($2.06 adjusted vs. $1.86 expected) on parks and streaming strength, though revenue of $25.25B landed just under the $25.4B consensus.
Nvidia is advancing on pure supply-chain confirmation rather than its own results — its next earnings print isn’t until Aug. 26 — after TSMC reported monthly sales up 30% year-over-year on sustained AI-chip demand and raised its 2026 capex forecast to $60–64B, while Foxconn posted a record July revenue of roughly $27.93B (+54.2% YoY), with its cloud-and-networking (AI server) division cited as the primary driver. The clear loser of the morning is SpaceX, down more than 11% pre-market: Tuesday’s first-ever public earnings report showed revenue up 92% YoY to $7.81B (beating the $6.93B estimate) and AI-segment revenue up 247%, but capital expenditure of $18.37B ran 39% above the $13.22B analyst estimate, with AI infrastructure alone accounting for roughly 86% of that spend — and the selloff is being compounded by today’s roughly $116B, 911.5M-share lockup expiry landing the very next session. Circle Internet also missed on EPS ($0.18 vs. $0.27 est.) and was downgraded to Underweight by Morgan Stanley (price target cut to $38 from $106) on stablecoin reserve-income and margin concerns, despite a competing Buy initiation from TD Cowen. Separately, Amazon shed roughly $71B in market cap Tuesday after a Form 144 filing disclosed Jeff Bezos’ plan to sell 15 million shares (~$4.07B) — a sentiment overhang rather than an operational red flag.
On the macro side, oil is stabilizing after Monday/Tuesday’s sharp Iran-relief decline — WTI is up 0.84% to $76.41 and Brent is up 1.23% to $80.34 — as President Trump says an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “could come as early as today,” even as an unidentified projectile struck a cargo ship near the strait overnight, a reminder that real headline risk remains live despite the diplomatic optimism. The 10-year Treasury yield is ticking up modestly to 4.627% as the oil selloff stabilizes, and the dollar (DXY) is softening slightly to 99.739. VIX is up 2.12% to 16.84 — a mild caution flag inside an otherwise risk-on tape, and the CNN Fear & Greed Index has pushed into Greed territory at 58, up sharply from 45.8 at the prior close. Today’s data highlight is the 10 AM ET ISM Services PMI alongside this morning’s ADP employment report for July (consensus 68K vs. June’s 98K) and the 10:30 AM EIA weekly crude inventories report, with Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls report still the week’s single biggest data point.
Market Sentiment
ES1! leads at +0.44%, YM1! confirms at +0.39%, RTY1! at +0.29%, and NQ1! rounds out a clean sweep at +0.19% — a continuation of Tuesday’s record-high breakout, slower in pace but broader in composition. Per today’s request the Top 5 is built entirely around user-specified names — Nvidia, Netflix, Upstart, Kratos Defense, and Disney — and four of the five carry hard, confirmed catalysts: UPST and KTOS both reported strong beats-and-raises after Tuesday’s close, DIS beat EPS estimates on parks/streaming strength this morning, and NVDA is riding genuine supply-chain confirmation (TSMC +30% monthly sales, Foxconn’s record AI-server-driven July revenue) rather than its own earnings reaction. NFLX is today’s outlier — a comparatively muted mover (+0.33% Tuesday, +1.64% PM) supported by softer catalysts (a $5B buyback, ad-revenue targets, a short-form video rollout, and Letterboxd acquisition talks) but tempered by recent price-target trims from Citi, Bernstein, and HSBC; treat it as a technical recovery/momentum long rather than a catalyst-driven breakout. The broader tape’s conviction comes from Secondary Movers SHOP and ANET, both cleaner beat-and-raise setups than anything in the Top 5 itself. Caveats: SPCX’s capex-driven selloff (compounded by today’s lockup expiry) is a reminder that AI-infrastructure spending is facing real scrutiny even in a risk-on tape; VIX’s mild uptick (+2.12%) and Trump’s 2 PM ET remarks in Las Vegas (Iran/Hormuz headline risk) both warrant a lighter touch into the early afternoon.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:15 AM | ADP Employment Change (Jul) | 68K | 98K (Jun) | MED |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI (Jul) | — | See ISM release | MED |
| 10:30 AM | EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories | — | — | LOW |
| 2:00 PM | 🟡 Trump Remarks — Red Rock Casino Resort, Las Vegas | — | — | HIGH |
| Today, Lockup Expiry | 🔴 SpaceX (SPCX) ~$116B Share Lockup Expiry (911.5M shares) | — | — | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
Beat on earnings, revenue landed just shy of consensus. Strength in theme parks and streaming, with continued box-office momentum from “Spider-Man: Brand New Day.”
GMV +32% YoY to $115.57B, operating income +68% to $488M. Guided Q3 revenue growth into the low-30s%, above the Street’s 26.3% estimate. Shares +26–28% pre-market — today’s single largest gapper.
UPST: originations +50% YoY, back to GAAP profitability. KTOS: double beat, raised FY26 guidance to $1.75–1.81B. ANET: guided Q3 op margin to 48–49% on AI-networking demand.
A mixed bag of reactions despite mostly-good headline numbers — a reminder that guidance and capex commentary are driving today’s tape more than the beats themselves.
⚡ Also this week: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) reports tomorrow, Aug. 6, after leading Monday’s optical-infrastructure rally; Rocket Lab (RKLB) reports Aug. 10.
Key Events Today
🔓 SpaceX’s ~$116B Lockup Expiry Compounds the Selloff
The added float supply is landing directly on top of the capex-driven post-earnings selloff, a double dose of pressure that’s driving today’s steepest Secondary Mover decline.
🕊️ Hormuz Deal “Could Come As Early As Today”
Trump says an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land Wednesday or Thursday and still warns of a hard military response if talks fail. An unidentified projectile struck a cargo ship near the strait overnight despite the diplomatic optimism.
🎰 Trump Remarks — Red Rock Casino Resort, Las Vegas
Confirmed remarks event landing mid-session — flagged HIGH per this desk’s calendar rule. Any Iran/Hormuz commentary here can move oil and the broader tape in real time.
💻 AI-Chip Complex Extends Tuesday’s Breakout
TSMC’s monthly sales rose 30% YoY and Foxconn posted a record July revenue (+54.2% YoY) on AI-server demand, a day after AMD’s blockbuster print sent MU, AVGO and MRVL to fresh 52-week highs.
Top 5 Movers
Research Themes
🟢 AI Chip & Networking Infrastructure Demand
NVDA (Top 5) is advancing on TSMC’s +30% monthly sales and Foxconn’s record AI-server-driven July revenue, while ANET’s Q2 beat-and-raise confirms the same demand story from the networking side. Tuesday’s blockbuster AMD print sent MU, AVGO and MRVL to fresh 52-week highs — a broadening rally, not a single-name story.
🟢 Post-Earnings Beat-and-Raise Parade
SHOP (+34% rev growth, guided Q3 above consensus), UPST (originations +50%, back to GAAP profitability), KTOS (double beat, raised FY26 guidance) and DIS (EPS beat on parks/streaming) are today’s four cleanest beat-and-raise reactions — a genuinely broad earnings-season confirmation rather than a single-stock story.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | PM Gap % | PM Vol | Beta / ATR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | Shopify Inc. | $123.30 | +20.43% | 2.69M | β2.18 / ATR $6.31 | Today’s single largest gapper on the entire scanner. Q2 revenue +34% YoY, GMV +32%, guided Q3 growth above consensus. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | $190.51 | +10.49% | 255K | β1.86 / ATR $10.39 | Beat-and-raise confirms the AI-networking demand story alongside NVDA. Guided Q3 op margin to 48–49%. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Technologies Corp | $125.33 | −11.51% | 8.18M | β5.36 / ATR $10.55 | Revenue beat (+92% YoY) overwhelmed by capex 39% above estimates; today’s ~$116B lockup expiry compounds the selloff. Highest absolute PM volume in today’s scanner. Short on ORB breakdown with volume confirmation. |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $131.63 | −3.52% | 387K | β2.29 / ATR $15.89 | Profit-taking pullback after Monday’s +19.44% surge on China-transceiver-import-ban news, ahead of AAOI’s own Q2 print tomorrow (Aug 6). Pre-earnings de-risking, not a broken thesis. Short on ORB breakdown, or stand aside into tomorrow’s print. |
| CRCL | Circle Internet Group, Inc. | $63.25 | −3.03% | 2.93M | β2.38 / ATR $5.19 | Q2 EPS missed ($0.18 vs. $0.27 est.); Morgan Stanley downgraded to Underweight (PT cut to $38 from $106) on stablecoin reserve-income pressure. Highest 5-min RVOL (8.19×) in today’s scanner. Short on ORB breakdown with volume confirmation. |
Names excluded from today’s list despite appearing on the scanner: GFS (+4.02% day but PM −6.77%; beat on both lines yet ATR $3.92 below the preferred $5 floor), VSH (−6.05% PM, ATR $4.02 below the floor), FLUT (−7.25% PM, decent ATR $4.65 but Beta 0.90 below the 1.0 floor), SEDG/PODD (−15.9%/−21.0% PM but both carry negative Beta, disqualified), DT (+12.5% PM but Beta 0.55 too low), MP Materials (+2.7% PM, ATR $3.16 below the floor), DKNG/PINS/RIOT/GLXY/UBER (all cut on thin ATR relative to the preferred floor).
Themed Movers
NVDA is advancing on pure supply-chain confirmation — TSMC’s monthly sales +30% YoY and Foxconn’s record AI-server-driven July revenue (+54.2% YoY) — while ANET’s beat-and-raise confirms the same demand story from the networking side. MRVL and AVGO round out the group as liquid alternates riding Tuesday’s AMD-driven rally to fresh 52-week highs, with MU as an additional liquid alternate.
SHOP, UPST, KTOS and DIS are today’s cleanest beat-and-raise or beat-and-guide reactions, and Dynatrace (DT) is extending the same theme pre-market on a smaller but confirmed gap, despite falling outside this desk’s Beta floor for the Secondary Movers table.
Session Playbook
SHOP’s 20%+ gap and highest scanner volume make it today’s highest-conviction long once the 5-min opening range completes with volume confirmation. NVDA’s move is slower-building — let the range set before entering.
Medium-impact prints. A soft ISM reading would reinforce the easing-yield backdrop; a hot print could revive rate-hike chatter and cap the rally’s pace.
The combination of capex-driven post-earnings selling and today’s 911.5M-share lockup expiry is a genuinely heavy supply overhang. Watch for spillover to ASTS/RKLB space-theme sentiment.
A confirmed remarks event carrying real headline risk — any comment on the Hormuz deal timeline can whipsaw oil and, by extension, the broader risk tone. Trim size into the window.
Overnight Intelligence
🌏 Asia / Pacific
🌍 Middle East / Macro
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Wed Aug 5 | TODAY — ADP Employment 7:15 AM · ISM Services PMI 10 AM · EIA Crude Inventories 10:30 AM · DIS/SHOP/CRCL/GFS earnings BMO · SpaceX ~$116B lockup expiry · Trump remarks 2 PM ET A broad beat-and-raise earnings parade (SHOP, UPST, KTOS, ANET, DIS) extends Tuesday’s record-close breakout, while SPCX’s capex-driven selloff and lockup expiry are today’s clearest cautionary tale. |
| Thu Aug 6 | Weekly Jobless Claims · Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Q2 Earnings AAOI’s own print lands after leading Monday’s optical-infrastructure rally and today’s pre-earnings pullback. |
| Fri Aug 7 | July Nonfarm Payrolls Report The week’s single biggest data point — a strong print could reignite rate-hike chatter given Fed Chair Warsh’s more hawkish public guidance stance. |
| Mon Aug 10 | Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q2 Earnings AMC Comes off fresh Electron contract wins (18 total iQPS missions) and a $266M Space Force suborbital-launch award — the next catalyst in the Space/Satellite theme, with SPCX’s reaction this week setting the sector’s tone. |