TRDX Daily US Market Briefing for May 13th, 2026 – TRDX Daily US Market Briefing

TRDX Daily US Market Briefing — May 13, 2026

Sector Heatmap

Tech

XLK

+1.8%

Comm.Svcs.

XLC

+1.2%

Cons.Disc.

XLY

+0.8%

Financials

XLF

+0.6%

Industrials

XLI

+0.4%

Materials

XLB

+0.3%

Healthcare

XLV

+0.1%

Cons.Stap.

XLP

flat

Real Estate

XLRE

flat

Utilities

XLU

−0.1%

Energy

XLE

−0.4%

All values ~est. pre-market · Tech leads on AI/semi rally as Jensen Huang confirmed on Trump’s China trip — semiconductor supply chain thaw thesis driving outsized institutional buying in XLK · Energy slips as China diplomacy reduces geopolitical risk premium in crude · Broad participation across cyclicals signals genuine risk-on positioning, not just defensive rotation.

Market Bias

52 Cautious

Futures (pre-PPI): S&P ~+0.5%, Nasdaq ~+1.0% — strong recovery from yesterday’s CPI sell-off. China diplomatic catalyst drove the early bid. (+12 pts)
PPI ACTUAL — HOT: April PPI came in at +1.4% MoM vs. +0.3% expected — a massive upside shock, the largest in years. Combined with yesterday’s CPI +0.6%, two consecutive inflation blowouts confirm the “higher for longer” thesis is back in full force. (−18 pts)
Geopolitical catalyst intact: Jensen Huang confirmed on Trump’s China trip — $50B AI chip market thesis still holds; semis with China exposure have a structural bullish offset. (+14 pts)
Earnings beats holding: NBIS and WOLF volumes growing post-PPI (2.44M and 1.39M respectively) — hard catalyst names are resilient; macro-only names (IREN, APLD) have dropped off the scanner. (+10 pts)
Sizing discipline required: Dual inflation shock (CPI + PPI both scorching) means reduced position sizes; stick to names with hard fundamental catalysts only. (−6 pts)

Sources: BLS PPI Release May 13 2026 · Benzinga · CNBC · Reuters · Yahoo Finance futures

Overall Economic Summary

Markets are in recovery mode after yesterday’s hot CPI shock (April +0.6% MoM vs. +0.3% expected). The primary catalyst driving today’s pre-market strength is geopolitical rather than economic: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has been confirmed as part of President Trump’s delegation to China — a development with enormous implications for the $50B China AI chip market that has been effectively frozen under US export controls. Institutions are interpreting this as a meaningful step toward US-China tech détente, which has direct revenue implications for NVDA, QCOM, and the broader semiconductor complex. When the highest-profile executive in the AI chip space joins a presidential trade mission, the market prices in access.

On the earnings front, this morning delivers meaningful AI-sector validation: Nebius Group (NBIS) is gapping +18.25% on Q1 2026 results (conference call 8:00 AM ET) as the company’s AI factory and cloud infrastructure buildout — including gigawatt-scale facilities and the $643M Eigen AI acquisition — resonates with institutional investors tracking ARR toward its $7–9B full-year target. Wolfspeed (WOLF) similarly gaps +18.2% on a Q3 earnings beat driven by silicon carbide demand in AI data center power applications. Both prints validate the AI infrastructure investment thesis that has been under pressure from rate-cut repricing since yesterday’s CPI.

⚠️ PPI UPDATE: April PPI came in at +1.4% MoM vs. +0.3% expected — one of the largest upside surprises in years. Following yesterday’s CPI shock (+0.6% vs. +0.3%), the US economy has now posted back-to-back massive inflation beats. This reinstates the “higher for longer” narrative with conviction and puts significant pressure on rate-sensitive growth names. However, the critical distinction today is between macro-driven longs (which are vulnerable) and earnings-catalyst longs (which are resilient). NBIS and WOLF volumes have grown post-PPI print, and INTC pre-market volume has surged to 5.21M — institutional conviction on specific catalysts is intact even as the broader macro tape sours. Reduce position sizing by 25–30% across all names, restrict entries to post-8:30 AM ORB setups only, and focus exclusively on the hardest-catalyst names in today’s list.

Market Sentiment

The regime is BULLISH — CAUTIOUS. Pre-PPI, futures were running +1.0% on the China diplomatic catalyst. Post-PPI (+1.4% MoM actual vs. +0.3% expected), the macro backdrop is now decisively hawkish — two consecutive massive inflation beats (CPI yesterday, PPI today) mean rate cuts are essentially off the table for 2026. The China thaw thesis remains intact and is the structural offset for AI/semi names with direct China exposure (NVDA, QCOM, INTC). Today I am filtering long setups only, but limited to names with hard earnings or contract catalysts. The playbook: wait for the first 5-minute ORB post-open, reduce size by 25–30%, and avoid any name whose gap was driven purely by macro optimism rather than fundamental catalyst — those names (IREN, APLD) have already rolled off the scanner.

✅ BULLISH REGIME — CAUTIOUS · LONG SETUPS ONLY · PPI came in HOT (+1.4% MoM vs. +0.3% expected) — reduce size 25–30%, entries post-open ORB only · Stick to hard-catalyst names; macro-only longs dropped from list

Key Market Stats

S&P Futures

~7,440

~+0.5% ~est

Nasdaq Futures

~29,421

~+1.0% ~est

Dow Futures

~43,490

~+0.4% ~est

10Y Yield

~4.36%

~flat / slight ease

VIX

~16.5

−1.59 · −8.8% ~est

WTI Crude

~$95.50

~−2.2% · China thaw

Brent

~$99.20

~−2.0% ~est

Gold

~$4,730

~+0.6% ~est

DXY

~104.4

~−0.3% ~est

Economic Calendar

Time (ET)	Event	Actual	Consensus	Prior	Impact
8:30 AM	April PPI (MoM SA) — Producer Price Index	+1.4% 🔥	~+0.3%	+0.2%	HIGH
8:30 AM	April Core PPI (ex food & energy, MoM SA)	Beat est.	~+0.3%	+0.3%	HIGH
~8:00 AM	NBIS Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call (Nebius Group)	—	—	—	MED

🔥 PPI RELEASED HOT: +1.4% MoM actual vs. +0.3% expected — one of the largest upside PPI surprises in years. Combined with yesterday’s CPI (+0.6% vs. +0.3%), the US has now posted back-to-back massive inflation beats. “Higher for longer” is back. Reduce sizing across all setups; earnings-catalyst names are the only viable longs. Source: BLS PPI Release May 13 2026

Today’s Earnings

NBIS Nebius Group N.V. BMO

Q1 2026 Conference Call: 8:00 AM ET · Focus: ARR trajectory toward $7–9B 2026 target · Eigen AI integration timeline · Meta/Microsoft hyperscaler deployments

Nebius Group is gapping +15.85% pre-market with 2.44M shares on Q1 2026 results — volume has grown since the initial print, confirming institutional accumulation even post-PPI. The company’s AI factory buildout — including a gigawatt-scale facility in Missouri — and the $643M Eigen AI acquisition announced May 1 are the structural catalysts. Investors on the conference call will focus on three metrics: ARR run-rate vs. the $7–9B full-year target, operational updates on Meta and Microsoft hyperscaler deployments, and early Eigen integration commentary. NBIS is the cleanest AI cloud infrastructure earnings play of the session — the pre-market volume and gap confirm institutional accumulation, not retail.

WOLF Wolfspeed, Inc. BMO

Q3 FY2026 Results: Revenue $150M · Fiscal Q3 net losses reduced 58% · Analyst price targets raised ~90% post-print

Wolfspeed reported Q3 FY2026 results with $150M in revenue and a 58% reduction in net losses, validating its pivot into silicon carbide (SiC) chips for AI data center power management and industrial applications. New leadership additions including an Asia-Pacific regional president targeting Japan, Korea, and ASEAN markets, plus new EVP appointments, signal operational confidence. Analysts responded with ~90% upward revision to price targets. The SiC angle directly ties Wolfspeed to the AI data center power infrastructure buildout — the same theme driving NVTS today. WOLF qualifies as a strong Secondary Mover on this fundamental catalyst.

Key Intraday Events

Jensen Huang Confirmed on Trump’s China Delegation

All Day Catalyst · China trip begins this week

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang joining President Trump’s China delegation is the primary macro driver of today’s pre-market strength. China represents approximately $50B in addressable AI chip market that has been effectively frozen under US export controls. Huang’s presence signals that the semiconductor industry — and specifically the AI chip supply chain — is a central negotiating priority for the administration. For day traders: this is a multi-day catalyst, not a one-morning bounce. NVDA leads, but the ripple effects extend to QCOM (data center chips + China smartphone), INTC (foundry positioning), and the broader SOX. A positive headline from the trip intraday would accelerate all of these names further.

🔥 April PPI — RELEASED: +1.4% MoM ACTUAL (vs. +0.3% expected)

8:30 AM ET · Bureau of Labor Statistics · RESULT IN

PPI came in at +1.4% MoM — nearly 5× the consensus of +0.3%. This is one of the largest upside PPI surprises in recent memory and follows yesterday’s equally hot CPI (+0.6% vs. +0.3%). Final demand services advanced +1.2% and final demand goods rose +2.0% — broad-based inflationary pressure, not concentrated in one category. On an annual basis, headline PPI is tracking toward ~4.9% YoY. For day traders: the immediate effect is to crush any remaining rate-cut thesis and add multiple compression pressure to high-growth names. The China diplomatic catalyst (Jensen on Trump’s China trip) remains the bullish offset and is why earnings-catalyst AI/semi names are holding their pre-market gains despite this print. Strategy: all entries are now post-open ORB only, 25–30% reduced sizing, hard-catalyst names only. Do not chase any gap that is not supported by an earnings beat or major contract/announcement.

QCOM Catalyst — Data Center Chip Launch to Major Hyperscaler

Ongoing catalyst · CEO commentary from recent earnings

Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon confirmed the company will begin shipping data center chips to “a large hyperscaler” within the calendar year. Combined with a Daiwa analyst upgrade to Outperform (PT: $225 from $140), QCOM is bouncing from a -11.46% session yesterday on hot CPI. The data center chip angle — competing with ARM and x86 architectures in the hyperscaler market — is a fresh and underpriced revenue stream. QCOM’s $222B market cap and high daily liquidity (~38M shares/day average) make it one of the cleanest large-cap LONG setups of the session on a reversal + catalyst day.

Top 5 Movers — Bullish Regime (5 Longs)

#1 NVDA MAG 7 NVIDIA Corporation

AI Semiconductors · Mag 7 · LONG

~$226.50

+2.53% pre-market

Pre-mkt Vol: ~2.5M+ est ATR(14): ~$9.80 est Market Cap: ~$5.5T Beta: ~2.1

Catalyst

Jensen Huang confirmed joining President Trump’s China delegation — directly reopening the $50B China AI chip market that has been locked behind export controls. China accounted for roughly 13–17% of NVDA’s revenue at peak before restrictions; even partial access restoration represents a massive upside revision to consensus estimates. Simultaneously, NVDA is 7 days from its Q1 FY2027 earnings (May 20), with Goldman Sachs projecting approximately a $2B revenue beat driven by Blackwell GPU demand from US hyperscalers. The China trip is front-running positive guidance — institutions are buying NVDA today in anticipation of a dual catalyst: diplomatic progress + earnings beat.

Why It’s Moving

NVDA is not in today’s scanner (gap below the screener threshold) but qualifies on absolute volume and catalyst strength — the Mag 7 pick for today by a wide margin. No other stock on the board has the combination of: (1) Mag 7 liquidity and institutional sponsorship, (2) direct China market catalyst from a presidential trade mission, and (3) imminent earnings catalyst with analyst conviction. When the CEO of the world’s most important AI chip company joins the president on a China trade trip, the market buys NVDA first and asks questions later.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$226.50 (pre-market reference). Expected opening range: $224–$230. ATR(14): ~$9.80. Bias: Long. Buy the open on any ORB confirmation above $228, or add on PPI-driven dip back to $224–$225 VWAP. First target: $233 (~½× ATR above). Second target: $236 (1× ATR above). Stop: below $222 (below pre-market support). Do not chase above $231 without confirmation.

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $230.00 (pre-market high area / round number), $236–$238 (prior weekly highs ~est). Support: $224.00 (pre-market consolidation), $220.00 (key psychological floor), $215–$216 (prior base, strong institutional buy zone).

Wyckoff Phase

Re-Accumulation / Markup — stock is in a sustained institutional accumulation phase driven by AI capex supercycle; today’s diplomatic catalyst adds a fresh demand source (China access) on top of existing hyperscaler demand.

Sources: Reuters “Jensen Huang joins Trump China trip” · CNBC “NVDA pre-market +2.53%” · Goldman Sachs Q1 FY2027 preview (via search results) · Motley Fool NVDA price prediction May 2026

#2 NBIS Nebius Group N.V.

AI Cloud Infrastructure · Preferred Sector · LONG

$179.11

+18.25% gap

Pre-mkt Vol: 1,909,004 (RVOL 15-min: 3.50×) ATR(14): $13.76 Market Cap: $45.1B Beta: 3.13

Catalyst

Nebius Group reports Q1 2026 earnings this morning with a conference call at 8:00 AM ET. The company is building toward its $7–9B full-year 2026 ARR target, supported by: a gigawatt-scale AI factory under construction in Missouri, the $643M Eigen AI acquisition closed May 1, and active deployments serving Meta and Microsoft hyperscaler customers. The stock broke out to all-time highs in recent sessions and today’s pre-market gap confirms the earnings print met or exceeded expectations. NBIS is the pure-play AI factory/cloud infrastructure story — it monetizes the GPU compute buildout that NVDA sells into.

Why It’s Moving

1.9M shares of pre-market volume at RVOL 3.5× on an earnings catalyst — this is institutional accumulation, not retail positioning. Beta 3.13 means NBIS captures 3× the market’s move, making it one of the highest-conviction LONG setups on a bullish regime day. The earnings conference call at 8:00 AM ET will be the key volatility event: listen for ARR commentary and Eigen integration timing. If ARR trajectory is tracking toward the $7–9B target, expect additional institutional buying waves throughout the session. The $45B market cap provides sufficient liquidity for meaningful position sizing.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$179.00. Expected opening range: $174–$186. ATR(14): $13.76. Bias: Long. Ideal entry: wait for the 8:00 AM conference call to clear, then buy on first 5-minute candle hold above $180. Target 1: $190 (~¾× ATR). Target 2: $193 (1× ATR above open). Stop: $172 (below gap-fill zone / prior day close area). Size at 75% — earnings-day volatility warrants slight reduction; add on confirmation post-call.

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $186.00 (pre-market high area), $195–$200 (next technical extension zone). Support: $174.00 (gap-fill area / 50% retracement of today’s move), $168.50 (prior day close ~est), $160.00 (structural base / prior ATH breakthrough zone).

Wyckoff Phase

Markup — clean breakout to all-time highs on fundamental earnings catalyst with institutional volume confirmation. Sustained trend continuation likely through the session if conference call tone is positive.

Sources: Benzinga “Nebius Stock Is Jumping: What’s Behind the Surge?” · Investing.com “Why is Nebius stock surging today?” · Investing.com “Nebius Breaks Out to All-Time Highs” · ts2.tech “Nebius Stock Pre-Market Bounce”

#3 INTC Intel Corporation

Semiconductor Foundry · Preferred Sector · LONG

$120.61

+4.24% gap

Pre-mkt Vol: 4,300,118 — HIGHEST in full scanner ATR(14): $7.43 Market Cap: $606B Beta: 2.33

Catalyst

Intel and Apple are finalizing a chip manufacturing deal that would see Intel’s US foundry operations produce chips for Apple devices — a deal that analysts estimate could add $10B in annual sales to Intel by 2030. This is the crown jewel of Intel’s foundry ambitions: Apple’s manufacturing vote of confidence would signal to every other chip designer that Intel’s process technology is competitive with TSMC. Intel has surged +430% over the past year driven by six consecutive earnings beats (including a massive Q1 2026 EPS surprise), the Apple foundry discussions, a Google partnership expansion, CHIPS Act government funding, and a 10% US government stake. Today’s bounce from yesterday’s -4.91% is a buying opportunity within the multi-month uptrend.

Why It’s Moving

INTC has the largest absolute pre-market volume in today’s entire scanner — 4.3M shares, dwarfing every other name. This signals maximum institutional engagement: some are covering yesterday’s short pressure, others are establishing fresh longs on the Apple deal progression. Intel’s 4.3M pre-market shares against an average of ~1.6M daily is a 2.7× relative volume read that confirms this is not retail noise. With the China diplomatic thaw benefitting the entire semiconductor ecosystem and the Apple deal providing a concrete foundry revenue runway, INTC is the highest-liquidity bullish trade of the day.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$120.50. Expected opening range: $118–$123. ATR(14): $7.43. Bias: Long. Buy the open on ORB confirmation above $121.50 after PPI clears at 8:30 AM. Target 1: $125 (~½× ATR above). Target 2: $128 (1× ATR above). Stop: $117.50 (below pre-market support / gap-fill zone). Note: INTC had heavy short coverage yesterday at $129 — today’s buyers are absorbing that inventory at $120. This is a reversal long with strong volume conviction.

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $123.34–$124.14 (intraday high range from search data), $128.50–$129.50 (yesterday’s pre-market open / where shorts were established). Support: $117.50 (gap base), $115.00 (prior breakout level / round number floor), $112–$113 (structural base from pre-April run).

Wyckoff Phase

Re-Accumulation — post-distribution day shake-out (yesterday’s CPI-driven sell) is being absorbed by institutional buyers today on Apple deal confirmation; the primary uptrend remains intact.

Sources: TheStreet “Apple signs chipmaking deal with Intel” · CNBC “Intel soars on Apple chip talks” · Intellectia.ai “Intel Apple Chip Deal 2026” · 247wallst.com “Intel just ripped 116% in a month” · Benzinga “Intel slips despite $80B CPU forecast, Apple deal”

#4 RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation

Space Technology · Preferred Sector · LONG — Confirmed 3-Day Prototype Winner

$117.56

+6.24% gap

Pre-mkt Vol: 775,442 (RVOL 15-min: 2.72×) ATR(14): $8.37 Market Cap: $68.0B Beta: 2.75

Catalyst

Rocket Lab reported blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings on May 8: revenue $200.3M (+63.5% YoY), backlog $2.2B, with Neutron medium-lift rocket on track for a debut launch later in 2026. The company closed the Mynaric AG acquisition and signed a deal to acquire Motiv Space Systems, adding Mars-proven robotics and solar array drive assemblies. A $30M HASTE hypersonic contract with Anduril and the company’s biggest launch booking yet (confidential customer, multiple Neutron and Electron launches) round out a compelling multi-catalyst story. The stock surged +34% on May 8 earnings day — its best single day ever — and confirmed again as the TRDX Best Trade on May 11. Today it resumes the uptrend after yesterday’s brief macro-driven pause.

Why It’s Moving

RKLB is the TRDX prototype Best Trade — confirmed Best Trade on both May 8 AND May 11 2026 (two consecutive days). The prototype profile: ≥5% gap, ≥500K early volume, multi-catalyst, Beta ≥1.5, prior-day red + catalyst gap. Today RKLB meets every criterion again: +6.24% gap, 775K shares, Beta 2.75, multi-catalyst (Neutron, contracts, acquisitions). Yesterday’s -4.56% session (CPI-driven short pressure) was exactly the “prior-day red” setup that has preceded the strongest RKLB moves. In a bullish regime with the space sector recovering, RKLB is the institutional momentum vehicle of choice.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$117.50. Expected opening range: $114–$122. ATR(14): $8.37. Bias: Long. Buy on ORB above $119 after PPI clears. Target 1: $124 (~¾× ATR). Target 2: $126 (1× ATR). Stop: $113.50 (below gap-fill / prior session close). Do not chase above $122 before the 5-minute ORB confirms. The cleanest entry is on the first 5-min candle hold above pre-market high.

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $122.00 (pre-market recent high zone), $126–$127 (two-day post-earnings run highs from May 8–9). Support: $113.00 (yesterday’s closing level / gap-fill area), $109.00 (1× ATR below open), $105.00 (strong institutional floor, prior earnings reaction zone — the key re-entry long if the move overstretches).

Wyckoff Phase

Markup — sustained institutional accumulation post-earnings; yesterday’s CPI-driven shake was a classic “Spring” (false breakdown) within the broader markup phase; today’s continuation confirms the uptrend.

Sources: TipRanks “Rocket Lab Q1 Earnings Today” · TheStreet “Veteran analyst doubles down on RKLB after earnings” · TRDX scanner Best Trade confirmed May 8 & May 11 2026

#5 QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated

Semiconductors · Large-Cap · LONG — Reversal + Data Center Catalyst

$210.31

+5.04% gap (reversing yesterday’s −11.46%)

Pre-mkt Vol: 747,558 (RVOL 15-min: 2.39×) ATR(14): $14.76 Market Cap: $221.7B Beta: 1.62

Catalyst

Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon confirmed the company will begin shipping data center chips to “a large hyperscaler” within the calendar year — a secret December launch that sent the stock to record highs on May 11 (+8% rally). Yesterday’s -11.46% session was driven entirely by hot CPI macro pressure, not any change in the fundamental story. The data center chip opportunity is new and underpriced: Qualcomm competing in hyperscaler data center compute (where ARM architecture advantages are significant) represents a revenue stream not yet reflected in consensus models. Daiwa upgraded QCOM to Outperform with a $225 PT (from $140). The China diplomatic thaw also benefits QCOM, which has material smartphone chip exposure to Chinese OEMs.

Why It’s Moving

QCOM dropped -11.46% yesterday on macro, not fundamentals — this is the precise reversal setup this portfolio targets. 748K pre-market shares on a $221B market cap name confirms institutional re-entry after yesterday’s forced selling. The combination of: (1) data center chip launch catalyst, (2) CEO confidence on hyperscaler ship date, (3) China diplomatic thaw (smartphone chip exposure), and (4) Daiwa upgrade creates a multi-layer bullish case. QCOM’s Beta 1.62 provides controlled upside capture without the whipsaw risk of higher-beta names, making it a solid large-cap anchor in today’s Top 5. Confirmed prior winner in the TRDX portfolio (May 11, 2026).

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$210.00. Expected opening range: $207–$215. ATR(14): $14.76. Bias: Long. Buy the open above $211.50 on PPI confirmation (post 8:30 AM). Target 1: $218 (~½× ATR). Target 2: $225 (1× ATR — aligns with Daiwa PT). Stop: $204.50 (below pre-market support / prior consolidation). For patient entries: accumulate on any PPI-spike dip into $207–$208.

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $215.00 (pre-market high zone / round number), $225.00 (Daiwa price target / key institutional level), $228.27 (prior pre-market high from recent session). Support: $207.00 (pre-market support), $200.00 (psychological round number / major institutional floor), $196–$198 (pre-data-center-catalyst breakout base).

Wyckoff Phase

Re-Accumulation — yesterday’s macro-driven shake-out is being absorbed by institutions with conviction on the data center chip story; today’s bounce is early Markup confirmation.

Sources: TIKR.com “Qualcomm Stock Surged 15% After Q2 2026 Earnings” · Daiwa analyst upgrade via search results · Yahoo Finance QCOM pre-market data · TRDX confirmed winner May 11 2026

Research Themes

🇨🇳 Theme 1 — US-China AI Chip Thaw: Buy the Semiconductor Re-Opening Trade

Jensen Huang joining Trump’s China delegation is the defining catalyst for today and potentially the next several sessions. The $50B China AI chip market has been frozen — any partial restoration of access creates immediate upside revision to NVDA, QCOM, and adjacent names. The playbook: buy the first derivative (NVDA) and second derivative (QCOM, INTC as foundry beneficiary) on today’s diplomatic optimism. Position sizing note: this is a process, not an event — the trip will produce headlines throughout the week. Use intraday dips on any PPI-related volatility as accumulation opportunities, not exits. The China AI chip re-opening trade is a multi-week thesis, not a one-morning trade.

Primary longs: NVDAQCOMINTC Sympathy plays: AMDMRVLAVGO

Sources: Reuters “Jensen Huang joins Trump China trip” · CNBC “Apple chip deal puts Intel foundry in focus”

🏭 Theme 2 — AI Infrastructure Earnings Validation: Buy the Builders

NBIS (+18.25%) and WOLF (+18.2%) both gap today on earnings beats tied to AI infrastructure buildout. NBIS represents the cloud/compute layer (GPU-as-a-service at hyperscaler scale); WOLF represents the power infrastructure layer (SiC chips for data center power management). Both companies are monetizing the same capex supercycle that NVDA is driving. The market is re-rating AI infrastructure companies higher as real revenue materializes — this is not speculation, it’s confirmation. The trade: own the entire AI infrastructure stack today — compute (NBIS, NVDA), connectivity (AAOI, NVTS), power (WOLF, APLD), and launch/satellite (RKLB). Each has a distinct catalyst; together they represent the AI buildout thesis in full.

Stack: NVDANBISWOLFAAOINVTSAPLDRKLB

Sources: Benzinga NBIS · Investing.com “Why is Nebius stock surging” · StocksToTrade “WOLF Stock Jumps on Guidance”

🔄 Theme 3 — The CPI Hangover Reversal: Large-Cap Semis Snap Back

Yesterday’s hot CPI forced indiscriminate selling across semis and AI names — QCOM -11.46%, INTC -4.91%, CRWV -6.06%. Today, with China diplomatic tailwinds replacing the macro headwind, the reversal trade is underway. The key insight: yesterday’s selling was macro-driven, not fundamental. Earnings stories (NBIS, WOLF), contract wins (RKLB), and product launches (QCOM data center chip) did not change overnight. Institutions that sold into the CPI panic are now re-establishing at lower levels. The cleanest reversal longs are those where (1) the fundamental catalyst remains intact, (2) pre-market volume confirms institutional re-entry, and (3) the gap up is not yet fully recovered to pre-CPI levels (leaving room to run). QCOM and INTC both qualify on all three criteria.

Reversal longs: QCOMINTC Note — CRWV excluded: weak Q2 guidance + insider selling make this a structural story, not a clean reversal

Sources: TIKR.com QCOM earnings analysis · Yahoo Finance INTC quote · FXLeaders CRWV earnings analysis

Secondary Movers (Revised post-PPI: IREN & APLD removed — dropped off scanner; COHR & LUNR added)

Ticker	Company	Price	Gap %	Pre-mkt Vol	Note
WOLF LONG ↑	Wolfspeed, Inc.	$53.72	+18.21%	1,327K (2.62× RVOL)	Q3 FY2026 earnings beat: $150M revenue, 58% reduction in net losses, analyst price targets raised ~90%. SiC chips for AI data center power management — direct AI infrastructure play. Beta 3.16 provides maximum upside capture on a bullish day. Entry: ORB above $54.50 post-PPI. Target: $60 (1× ATR ~$4.85 above). Stop: $51.00. High conviction on earnings day continuation.
COHR LONG ↑	Coherent Corp.	$374.01	+7.75%	210K (4.07× RVOL)	AI photonics and laser components — direct beneficiary of NVDA’s $3.2B optical fiber investment in Corning and the broader AI data center connectivity buildout. $73B market cap provides institutional-grade liquidity. Beta 1.68. RVOL 4.07× is the highest in the revised scanner, signaling institutional conviction despite the PPI shock. Entry above $378 on ORB post-open. Target: $392 (1× ATR ~$25.84 above). Stop: $365. Moderate size given volume is lighter (210K).
NVTS LONG ↑	Navitas Semiconductor	$19.25	+8.47%	1,199K (2.42× RVOL)	GaN (gallium nitride) power ICs for AI data centers and fast-charging applications. Strong pre-market volume (1.2M shares) on a high-gap day confirms sector momentum. Rides the same power semiconductor wave as WOLF — AI data centers require massive power efficiency improvements. Beta 1.29. Entry on ORB above $19.80. Target: $21.50. Stop: $18.25. Size conservatively given smaller-cap nature ($4.5B).
AAOI LONG ↑	Applied Optoelectronics	$188.28	+7.72%	276K (2.69× RVOL)	Optical networking components for AI data centers — rides the NVDA / Corning AI fiber thesis. NVDA recently invested $3.2B in Corning for AI optical fiber; AAOI supplies the active optical components that connect high-bandwidth GPU clusters. Beta 2.65, ATR $21.89. Entry above $192 on ORB. Target: $205. Stop: $182. Volume is lighter (276K) vs. Top 5 names — size at ½ normal.
LUNR LONG ↑	Intuitive Machines, Inc.	$32.09	+5.64%	360K (2.78× RVOL)	Space infrastructure disruptor — NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) contract holder and growing commercial satellite/data business. Holding +5.64% post-PPI with 360K volume shows fundamental resilience. Beta 3.02. RKLB post-earnings enthusiasm has lifted the entire space sector; LUNR is the second-derivative beneficiary with its own contract pipeline. Entry above $33.00 on ORB. Target: $35.80. Stop: $30.50. Size at ½ normal — smaller cap ($7B) warrants caution on sizing.

The Days Ahead

Date	Event / Description
Thu May 14	April Retail Sales + Weekly Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM ET First consumer spending read after the hot CPI. Hot inflation + solid retail = stagflation fears; hot inflation + weak retail = consumer breaking. Either scenario complicates the Fed’s path and will drive significant single-session volatility. Watch retail for the consumer discretionary and AI infrastructure capex implications — corporate IT budgets follow consumer confidence with a lag.
Fri May 15	UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) · 10:00 AM ET + Industrial Production · 9:15 AM ET UMich’s 1-year and 5-year inflation expectation sub-readings are critical post-CPI shock. If consumers re-anchor expectations higher, the Fed’s hands are tied and growth/AI names face multiple compression. Industrial Production gauges manufacturing health — semiconductor and AI hardware production data directly relevant to this portfolio’s preferred names.
Tue May 19	April Housing Starts & Building Permits · 8:30 AM ET Rate-sensitive leading indicator. With 10Y yields elevated post-CPI shock, Housing Starts likely to disappoint further. Useful as a macro context check heading into NVDA earnings the following day.
Wed May 20	NVIDIA Q1 FY2027 Earnings — PRIMARY CATALYST EVENT The single most important earnings event of the quarter for this portfolio. Analysts (Goldman Sachs) project approximately a $2B revenue beat driven by Blackwell GPU demand. Options are pricing significant movement. If today’s China diplomatic progress generates positive headlines before May 20, NVDA could enter earnings day with already-elevated expectations — creating a “buy the rumor, watch the print” dynamic. Begin building watchlist and sizing plan this week.
Thu May 21	FOMC Meeting Minutes · 2:00 PM ET (est) Post-NVDA earnings, the minutes will frame the Fed’s rate path against a hot CPI backdrop. If minutes show the Fed was already concerned about re-acceleration pre-CPI, the hawkish repricing that began yesterday could accelerate further into summer. Key risk for rate-sensitive AI infrastructure names held from today’s positions.