TRDX Daily Market Briefing for April 24th, 2026 – TRDX Daily US Market Briefing

Sector Heatmap

Tech

XLK

+1.6%

Financials

XLF

+0.3%

Energy

XLE

+0.5%

Healthcare

XLV

0.0%

Industrials

XLI

+0.4%

Cons. Disc.

XLY

+0.7%

Cons. Stap.

XLP

-0.1%

Materials

XLB

+0.2%

Real Estate

XLRE

-0.4%

Utilities

XLU

-0.2%

Comm. Svcs.

XLC

+1.1%

~est. | Semiconductor-led tech surge dominates breadth today; 8 of 11 sectors in the green as AI chip enthusiasm drowns out rising oil/rate headwinds. XLRE lags as higher mortgage rates and Iran war uncertainty keep housing sector under pressure.

Market Bias

72

Greed

📈 S&P 500 Futures +0.4%, Nasdaq 100 +1.3% — strong futures print post-Intel earnings surge adds +20 to score
😬 VIX ~18.87 — in the 15–20 “manageable anxiety” band, neutral contribution; ceasefire extension helps but Iran uncertainty caps euphoria
🤖 Newsletter tone: Bullish — Bloomberg leads with “AI Euphoria Returns”; Stocktwits notes Intel ripping +16% AH is “the lone bright spot” amid a broader Thursday selloff, driving bullish Friday expectation (+10)
📊 Stocktwits: Mixed-to-bullish — Thursday day-session was bearish (ServiceNow selloff, S&P intraday reversal), but AH Intel catalyst flipping community sentiment bullish heading into Friday (+4)
😊 CNN Fear & Greed Index: 66 (Greed) — up from extreme fear just weeks ago, market has swung aggressively positive on ceasefire + earnings season tone (+8)

Overall Economic Summary

The macro tape today is a tug-of-war between AI-driven earnings optimism and persistent geopolitical and inflationary headwinds. Intel’s blockbuster Q1 beat — its sixth consecutive earnings outperformance — is the catalyst that kicked off “AI euphoria” heading into the Friday open. CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s credible AI pitch validated the chip infrastructure buildout thesis, with AI businesses now comprising 60% of Intel’s revenue and growing 40% year-over-year. SAP’s cloud beat (27% constant-currency growth) similarly reinforced the enterprise AI adoption wave, even as software plays like ServiceNow saw profit-taking despite a clean beat. The divergence between chip hardware (bullish) and SaaS software (mixed) is the defining tech narrative of this earnings season.

On the macro side, the Iran war looms as the dominant risk variable. Oil prices have now climbed for four consecutive sessions as the Strait of Hormuz situation remains unresolved despite the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extension. WTI hovers near $86.46, a level that historically squeezes consumer discretionary and transport margins. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading due today hit an all-time low of 47.6 in its preliminary print, reflecting how the war is hitting household psychology — even as upper-end consumers remain insulated. The dollar is modestly weaker (Bloomberg Spot -0.2%), supporting risk assets and multinationals.

The week ahead brings a concentrated earnings gauntlet: Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all reporting before month-end, alongside a Fed meeting and the first Q1 GDP estimate. The market’s ability to hold gains will depend entirely on whether Big Tech capex plans continue to validate the AI buildout — or signal fatigue. For today’s session, the setup is clean: AI chip names are leading, breadth is constructive, and the regime is unambiguously bullish.

Market Sentiment

The regime is BULLISH. S&P 500 futures sit at 7,170.25 (+0.4%), Nasdaq 100 at 27,282.25 (+1.3%), and Dow futures near 49,414 (-0.15%). With Nasdaq well above the +0.25% bullish threshold, I’m filtering for long/gap-up setups only today. The Nasdaq’s outperformance versus the Dow signals a pure growth rotation — money is moving into high-beta tech and semiconductor names while defensives lag. Intel’s earnings-driven pre-market surge is pulling the entire semiconductor complex higher and setting up a momentum-driven open. Stay long, stay in growth, and do not fight this tape.

Key Market Stats

S&P 500 Futures

7,170.25

+0.40%

Nasdaq 100 Fut.

27,282.25

+1.30%

Dow Futures

49,414

-0.15%

10Y Yield

4.25%

~est.

DXY (BB Spot)

1,197.35

-0.20%

WTI Crude

$86.46

+0.5% ~est.

Brent Crude

$88.80

+0.4% ~est.

Gold

$4,812

~est.

VIX

18.87

~est.

Economic Calendar

Time (ET)	Event	Consensus	Prior	Impact
10:00 AM	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final – April)	47.5	47.6 (prelim)	HIGH

⚠️ The preliminary UMich print was a record-low 47.6, down 11% from March, driven by Iran war anxiety and elevated prices. The final revision is unlikely to differ materially. A confirming weak print could pressure consumer discretionary names intraday while boosting defensive assets. Watch for market reaction to the “year-ahead inflation expectations” sub-component — still running well above 2024 levels.

Today’s Earnings

Major catalysts arrived after-hours Thursday. The key earnings moving today’s pre-market tape are from yesterday’s reports:

INTC AMC (Thu) Intel Corporation

Actual EPS: $0.29 vs $0.00 consensus | Revenue: $13.6B vs ~$12.2B est.

Intel’s Q1 2026 was the blowout quarter that validated CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s AI-first pivot. Revenue beat guidance by $1.4B, non-GAAP gross margin came in 650 basis points above guidance, and AI businesses now represent 60% of revenue growing 40% YoY. Q2 guidance of $13.8–$14.8B (midpoint +5.6% sequential) is solid. The market is rewarding a sixth consecutive beat with a +28% pre-market gap. Key debate: can Intel sustain 18A node ramp and margin expansion while managing elevated opex?

SAP BMO (Thu) SAP SE (ADR)

EPS: €1.72 (beat) | Cloud Revenue: €5.96B (+19% reported, +27% const. currency, beat est.)

SAP shrugged off Thursday’s SaaS selloff, posting cloud growth that beat estimates and reiterating its annual cloud revenue guidance of €25.8–€26.2B. The current cloud backlog of €21.9B (+20% YoY) signals multi-year revenue visibility. ADRs reversed a 6% regular-session decline to gain 6%+ AH. Watch SAP as a signal that enterprise AI spend cycles are intact — even as ServiceNow’s selloff-on-beat suggested the market’s patience for SaaS multiples is thinning.

GOOGL NEXT WEEK Alphabet Inc.

Expected: April 29, 2026 | Consensus EPS: ~$2.35 est.

Alphabet reports next Tuesday. With Google Cloud growing 48% YoY in 2025 and AI-integrated Search driving 17% revenue growth, the bar is high. Today’s pre-market action in XLC (+1.1%~est.) reflects positioning for a strong Alphabet print. Microsoft capex calls this week also validated AI infrastructure spend, setting a constructive tone. The risk: any guidance cautioning on AI capex or advertising deceleration from Iran war-related uncertainty could reprice the entire group.

Key Events Today

🇺🇸 UMich Consumer Sentiment Final (April)

10:00 AM ET

The final April reading follows a preliminary print of 47.6 — an all-time record low, down 11% from March. Consumer anxiety is being driven by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, gas prices surging (especially in car-centric Sun Belt cities), and AI-driven employment uncertainty. Long-run inflation expectations remain well above 2024 levels. A downside revision could briefly pressure consumer discretionary (XLY) and reward defensive assets, but the AI-chip rally is likely to absorb any momentary weakness.

🕊️ Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Update

All Day

Trump confirmed Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks, providing near-term relief from the Iran war escalation narrative. However, Washington is simultaneously increasing pressure on Tehran with blockade talk, and Trump’s social media blitz is creating diplomatic friction. Ceasefire stability is the #1 exogenous risk variable for crude oil and VIX today — any deterioration would flip the tape instantly. The Pentagon is reportedly floating suspending Spain from NATO over Iran war alliance rifts, adding a European dimension to watch.

🤖 DeepSeek New Flagship Model Launch

All Day (Overnight News)

China’s DeepSeek unveiled previews of its newest flagship model, claiming it’s the most powerful open-source AI platform yet — exactly one year after its original breakthrough jolted Silicon Valley. Simultaneously, the U.S. is moving to block Chinese developers from leveraging American AI models, and China is directing private tech firms to reject U.S. capital. This intensifying AI arms race is paradoxically bullish for U.S. chipmakers (compute demand surges globally) while adding geopolitical complexity ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting in China next month.

💊 Federal Cannabis Rescheduling Finalized

All Day (Thursday News — Fading)

The Trump administration finalized moving FDA-approved marijuana products from Schedule I to Schedule III. Initial cannabis stock surge (MSOS ETF +25%, Curaleaf +26%, Jushi +26%) reversed sharply Thursday afternoon as investors digested the limited scope of the reclassification. Today, cannabis stocks are likely to give back most remaining Thursday gains. The concrete near-term benefit is IRS Section 280E relief (better profitability), but broad institutional access and banking reform remain distant. Do not chase cannabis names today — the euphoria trade is done.

Top 5 Movers (Bullish Regime — Long/Gap-Up Setups Only · Gap Filter: +2% to +15%)

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.

~$330+

+8.0% ~est.

Sector: Semiconductors & AI Chips · Pre-mkt Vol: ~8M+ ~est. (avg ~45M, ~1.4× rel.) · ATR(14): ~$14–16 ~est. · Float: ~1.6B shares

Catalyst

Intel’s Q1 2026 blowout — revenue $13.6B (+1.4B vs guidance), AI biz growing 40% YoY — validates the entire semiconductor AI infrastructure thesis. Stifel upgraded AMD to Buy with a new $320 price target (raised from $280), explicitly reframing AMD as an AI player rather than a cyclical chip name, citing multi-gigawatt AI commitments from Meta and OpenAI as direct AMD beneficiaries. Bloomberg: “chipmakers doing the heavy lifting” as “resurgent optimism around AI’s economic promise eclipses Iran war worries.” Philadelphia Semiconductor Index now in a historic 16-day winning streak.

Why It’s Moving

AMD is the clearest institutional long in the AI chip trade outside of NVDA. Today’s move combines multiple catalysts: Intel’s results prove AI chip infrastructure demand is accelerating, not slowing; Stifel’s PT raise provides a fresh analyst narrative; and DeepSeek’s new model launch (overnight) reinforces that compute demand globally is only increasing. AMD’s EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI accelerators position it as a direct beneficiary of the hyperscaler capex wave. Q1 2026 earnings are coming next month — positioning ahead of that print is a clean setup.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: watch first 15-min VWAP establish near opening price (~$330–333). Prior close ~$305–310; the gap itself is the opening range. 50-day MA: ~$290 ~est. (well below — strong technical momentum). 200-day MA: ~$270 ~est. ATR(14): ~$14–16 ~est. Bias: Aggressively long — any pullback to VWAP or opening range bottom is a buy. Look for breakout continuation above $335 with volume surge.

Support & Resistance

Support: $325 (opening range bottom ~est.), $318 (gap fill zone ~est.), $305 (prior close). Resistance: $335 (gap high/psychological), $340 (Stifel PT zone), $350 (next round number).

Wyckoff Phase

Markup phase — AMD has been systematically accumulating institutional inflows over 16-day SOX streak. Today’s gap represents a possible Sign of Strength (SOS) if it holds and builds volume on the open.

Sources: Bloomberg Morning Briefing (Apr 24), Benzinga AMD rally, Stifel upgrade, Stocktwits Chart Art (Apr 23), BigGo Finance SOX streak

IREN

IREN Limited (AI Data Centers)

~$52.89

+7–9% ~est.

Sector: AI Cloud & Data Center Infrastructure · Pre-mkt Vol: ~1M+ ~est. (avg ~5M, ~1.5× rel. ~est.) · ATR(14): ~$3.50 ~est. · Float: ~240M shares ~est.

Catalyst

Motley Fool (Apr 23): “IREN jumps on ongoing data center pivot.” IREN has pivoted from Bitcoin mining to renewable-powered AI data centers, securing 4.5 GW of renewable energy capacity and scaling toward 150,000 GPUs for AI workloads. A major Microsoft partnership anchors institutional confidence. The stock is up 775% over the past year as the pivot narrative compounds. Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Overweight; analyst fair value consensus ~$95.75 (stock trading ~49% below average target). Massive U.S. data center delays at competing sites (Oracle cancellations) are redirecting demand toward IREN’s available capacity.

Why It’s Moving

IREN is riding the AI infrastructure wave at its purest expression: compute capacity, renewable energy, and Microsoft partnership. Intel’s Q1 beat proves hyperscaler AI capex is real and growing — that spend flows directly into data center operators like IREN. The broader market’s AI euphoria today lifts the entire AI infrastructure ecosystem. Execution risks exist (operational complexity of the mining-to-AI pivot), but today’s tape favors momentum, not debate. The stock remains a high-beta AI infrastructure proxy that moves with the narrative.

Key Daily Price Levels

Prior range: $47.20–$53.36 (Apr 24 intraday). VWAP will set on open — look for price to hold above opening VWAP. 52-week context: up 775%, so momentum is the primary structure. ATR(14): ~$3.50 ~est. Bias: Long above $50 VWAP hold. Breakout target: $55–58 zone if AI data center narrative accelerates into close.

Support & Resistance

Support: $50.00 (round number psychological), $47.20 (intraday low), $45 (prior consolidation ~est.). Resistance: $53.36 (recent intraday high), $58 (analyst coverage gap), $65 (intermediate target).

Sources: Motley Fool IREN pivot (Apr 23), Yahoo Finance IREN, Koranmanado analyst review, Fool IREN 500% winner article (Apr 19)

MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.

~$121+ ~est.

+6–8% ~est.

Sector: Semiconductors — AI Custom Silicon · Pre-mkt Vol: ~2M+ ~est. (avg ~12M, ~1.4× rel. ~est.) · ATR(14): ~$6 ~est. · Float: ~860M shares

Catalyst

This week is MRVL’s thesis-validation week: Microsoft capex call (Apr 23) and Google Alphabet earnings (Apr 29) are the direct hyperscaler backlog confirmation events that analysts flagged as MRVL’s next inflection. MRVL rose 168% over the past year on its AI custom ASIC/DPU pipeline with Microsoft and Amazon. The stock jumped 12.8% in a recent single session alongside the semiconductor sector surge. Today’s Intel-driven AI chip euphoria provides fresh momentum into MRVL’s next catalyst event. Weighted analyst fair value: ~$121, with a bull case to $150 on hyperscaler capex validation.

Why It’s Moving

MRVL is the custom silicon play. As hyperscalers build proprietary AI chips (rather than buying exclusively from NVDA), Marvell’s ASIC design and photonic interconnect business is the picks-and-shovels winner. Intel’s results showed AI infrastructure capex is accelerating — and that capex flows into MRVL’s design pipeline. The stock has strong institutional ownership and trades with the SOX index, which is in a historic 16-day winning streak. A clean, liquid, large-float name that qualifies on all technical filters.

Key Daily Price Levels

Watch for VWAP to anchor near the opening print. Prior MRVL sessions: strong momentum with clean consolidation bases. ATR(14): ~$6 ~est. Bias: Long — any dip to open VWAP on light volume is an entry. Target: prior highs / Stifel-equivalent analyst targets. 50-day MA ~$100 ~est. (well below), confirming extended markup phase.

Support & Resistance

Support: ~$115 (gap fill ~est.), ~$110 (prior week close ~est.), ~$100 (50-day MA ~est.). Resistance: ~$125 (near-term), ~$135 (next analyst cluster), ~$150 (bull case PT).

Sources: aibacons MRVL AI signal, MarketBeat top semi stocks 2026, BigGo Finance SOX 16-day streak

ARM

Arm Holdings plc (ADR)

~$170+ ~est.

+5–7% ~est.

Sector: Semiconductor IP & AI Chip Ecosystem · Pre-mkt Vol: ~800K+ ~est. (avg ~5M, ~1.3× rel. ~est.) · ATR(14): ~$9 ~est. · Float: ~1.0B shares

Catalyst

ARM jumped to record highs near $166.70 after its March 2026 pivot announcement to develop in-house silicon, with HSBC and Guggenheim issuing aggressive PT upgrades citing a fundamental shift in earnings potential. ARM then surged 10.5% in a single session alongside the SOX rally in recent weeks. Today’s Intel beat and AI chip euphoria provides a fresh sympathetic lift. ARM’s royalty model means every AI chip deployed using ARM architecture (which is most of them, from Apple to NVIDIA Grace CPUs) generates recurring revenue — making it the “Intel Inside” of the AI era.

Why It’s Moving

ARM is the foundational IP layer of the AI compute stack. As AI chip volumes surge — driven by Intel’s results, AMD’s momentum, and NVDA’s dominance — ARM collects royalties on virtually all of it. The pivot to in-house silicon adds a direct product revenue stream on top of licensing. With a premium valuation, ARM is momentum-driven and sentiment-sensitive, making it a high-beta expression of the AI chip bull case. DeepSeek’s new model launch further accelerates global compute demand that ARM participates in across geographies.

Key Daily Price Levels

ARM has a wide ATR ~$9 ~est. given its premium valuation and lower float vs NVDA/AMD. VWAP is critical — ARM can gap and trap. Bias: Long above VWAP hold; wait for opening range to set (first 5–15 min) before committing size. High-beta name: use half-size versus AMD or MRVL. Target: record high zone ~$175–180 ~est.

Support & Resistance

Support: ~$162 (prior record ~est.), ~$155 (recent consolidation), ~$145 (50-day ~est.). Resistance: ~$170 (current zone), ~$180 (HSBC target ~est.), ~$200 (bull case).

Sources: FinancialContent ARM pivot (Mar 31), MarketBeat semi stocks 2026, BigGo SOX streak, HSBC/Guggenheim upgrades

ON

ON Semiconductor Corporation

~$85+ ~est.

+4–6% ~est.

Sector: Semiconductors — Power & AI Infrastructure · Pre-mkt Vol: ~600K+ ~est. (avg ~4M, ~1.3× rel. ~est.) · ATR(14): ~$3.50 ~est. · Float: ~430M shares

Catalyst

ON Semiconductor surged 11.2% in a recent single session alongside the SOX rally as investors rotated into the broader semiconductor complex. ON’s power management chips are critical for AI data centers, EVs, and industrial automation — three of the hottest AI-adjacent capex themes. The stock sits in the SOX index and moves with the broader chip tape. Intel’s Q1 beat and the “AI euphoria” return narrative provides fresh institutional rotation interest in the semiconductor complex beyond the mega-caps, and ON is a clean large-float, high-ATR liquid name in the group.

Why It’s Moving

ON is a high-beta semiconductor name that participates in the “rising tide lifts all chips” dynamic of today’s tape. As data center build-outs accelerate (validated by Intel’s revenue beat), demand for power management silicon used in AI servers, GPU clusters, and cooling infrastructure benefits ON directly. This is a classic sector-sympathy play — ON isn’t the primary catalyst driver, but the setup is clean, the stock has proven it can surge 10%+ with the tape, and the technical structure aligns with a momentum long on a bullish open.

Key Daily Price Levels

Watch the SOX ETF (SOXX) as a leading indicator for ON intraday. VWAP will establish near open. ATR ~$3.50 ~est. Bias: Long on VWAP hold, reduce if SOX shows fatigue. Entry: opening range hold. Target: prior week highs / +$4–5 from open. Stop: below opening range low.

Support & Resistance

Support: ~$82 (opening range bottom ~est.), ~$78 (prior week close ~est.), ~$72 (50-day MA ~est.). Resistance: ~$88 (near-term), ~$92 (prior week high ~est.), ~$100 (round number psychological).

Sources: BigGo Finance SOX 16-day winning streak, MarketBeat semiconductor picks 2026

Research Themes

🧠 Theme 1: The AI Earnings Validation Cycle — Hardware Wins, Software Gets Tested

Intel’s Q1 blowout (AI rev +40% YoY, 60% of total revenue) and SAP’s cloud beat confirm that AI infrastructure hardware and enterprise AI cloud platforms are capturing real revenue — not just capex promises. Meanwhile, ServiceNow’s selloff-on-beat shows that pure SaaS multiples are under pressure even with strong results. The trade is long AI chip hardware (AMD, INTC, MRVL, ARM, NVDA) and AI cloud infrastructure (IREN, CRWV) while being selective on SaaS. Next week’s Big Tech earnings (GOOGL, META, AMZN, AAPL) are the next validation gates.

Tickers: AMD, INTC, MRVL, ARM, ON, NVDA, IREN, SMCI ~est.

🌐 Theme 2: The DeepSeek Paradox — China’s AI Progress Is Bullish for U.S. Chipmakers

DeepSeek’s new flagship (overnight launch, claiming most powerful open-source model) is widely framed as a threat to U.S. AI dominance. In practice, it’s a demand accelerant: every powerful open-source model that gets deployed globally requires GPU clusters and chip infrastructure that is overwhelmingly built on U.S. silicon. Meanwhile, Washington is blocking Chinese AI model access, and China is telling its firms to reject U.S. investment — creating a bifurcated AI chip market where U.S. companies serve the Western demand surge and Chinese foundries struggle with export controls. Net: more AI compute demand, not less, and U.S. chipmakers win.

Tickers: NVDA, AMD, INTC, MRVL, ARM, ANET, VRT (AI infra beneficiaries)

⚡ Theme 3: The AI Power Grid Trade — Data Centers Need Electrons

Every GPU cluster that IREN, CoreWeave, and hyperscalers spin up requires massive, reliable power. IREN’s 4.5GW renewable power procurement strategy and its AI data center pivot highlight a structural bottleneck in the AI buildout: power availability. Nuclear (OKLO, NNE, SMR, CEG, VST), industrial power infrastructure (GEV, ETN, PWR), and next-gen energy companies are direct beneficiaries. With IREN’s Microsoft partnership showing that renewable-powered AI data centers command premium contracts, the power-meets-AI trade is a multi-year structural opportunity — not just a momentum story.

Tickers: IREN, OKLO, NNE, SMR, CEG, VST, GEV, ETN, PWR, HUBB

Secondary Movers

Names below either exceed the ±15% gap filter (marked ⚠️), are below the +2% threshold in a bullish regime, are in deprioritized sectors, or are short-side setups excluded in today’s BULLISH regime.

Ticker	Company	Price	Gap %	Pre-mkt Vol	Note
INTC	Intel Corporation	~$85.96	⚠️ +28.7%	Very High	Exceeds +15% gap filter. THE catalyst of the day — Q1 beat, $13.6B revenue, AI biz 60% of rev. Too wide to chase on open; watch for post-gap consolidation setup intraday.
NVDA	NVIDIA Corporation	~$199–$203	+1.2%	High	Below +2% gap threshold today — surprisingly muted given the chip rally. Still the dominant AI infrastructure stock; watch for intraday breakout above $203 on volume as the primary “mother ship” for the sector.
QS	QuantumScape Corporation	~est.	⚠️ +33.7%	7.4M	Exceeds +15% filter. Q1 EPS beat + Eagle Line production facility operational. Speculative EV battery play; not preferred sector. Avoid unless gap settles into range.
ASGN	ASGN Incorporated	~est.	-34%	High	Short setup excluded (BULLISH regime). Massive Q1 miss + soft Q2 guidance + rebranding uncertainty. IT staffing under AI disruption pressure. Do not long this today.
SMCI	Super Micro Computer	~$26.76	-8%	Elevated	Short setup excluded (BULLISH regime). Oracle cancellation of $1.1–1.4B server rack order + legal issues weigh. Avoid long today despite preferred sector; stock has fundamental headwinds.
AUUD	Auddia Inc.	Micro-cap	⚠️ +77.4%	35.4M	Far exceeds filter and micro-cap exclusion. AI patent news driving speculative spike. No institutional backing. Dangerous gap-fade risk. Avoid.

The Days Ahead

Date	Event / Description
Mon Apr 27	Alphabet (GOOGL) Q1 2026 Earnings — After Close Google Cloud growing 48% in 2025; Q1 2026 bar is high. Any cloud/Search guidance cautioning on AI capex or Iran war ad-spend impact could reprice XLC. AI-driven Search monetization is the key watch metric.
Tue Apr 28	Meta Platforms (META) Q1 2026 Earnings — After Close Meta’s AI capex guidance ($60–65B 2026 est.) is a direct read for AMD, MRVL, and the AI chip ecosystem. Any increase in AI spending = bullish for semis. Watch Reality Labs losses vs. core ad revenue growth for headline risk.
Wed Apr 29	Amazon (AMZN) Q1 2026 Earnings — After Close + FOMC Meeting Begins AWS cloud growth rate is the #1 AI infrastructure demand signal. FOMC meeting begins — no rate decision Wednesday but watch for pre-announcement Fed commentary. Iran war inflation impact on rate path is the key macro risk.
Thu Apr 30	Apple (AAPL) Q1 2026 Earnings + GDP Q1 2026 First Estimate (8:30 AM ET) GDP first print gives the first comprehensive read on Iran war + tariff impact on the U.S. economy. Apple’s iPhone cycle and AI feature adoption (Apple Intelligence) set the tone for consumer tech. A GDP miss could reset rate-cut expectations.
Fri May 1	FOMC Rate Decision + Non-Farm Payrolls (April) + May Day The double-barrel macro event of the month. NFP is the labor market read under war conditions; the Fed rate decision will be dissected for any Iran war accommodation language. European markets closed for May Day. Expect elevated volatility and wide opening ranges.
Next Week+	Trump-Xi Meeting (China) — Tentative Bloomberg reports Trump plans to visit China next month if the Iran war situation doesn’t delay it again. A Trump-Xi meeting would be a massive geopolitical catalyst for tech, semiconductors, and China-exposed names (NVDA export controls relief could be a negotiating chip).