TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 8:00 AM ET
Futures Chart Technical Analysis
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — the Iran de-escalation headline and the crash in oil are easing the yield/inflation pressure that’s capped this contract for weeks. A reclaim of today’s high opens a push toward the Premium zone; a slip back under 7,543.50 would flag the Iran-talks optimism as fragile, especially given Iran disputes any talks are scheduled.
Support: 7,543.50 (today’s low) → 7,393 (Wick Sweep shelf) → 7,325 (CHoCH/HL zone)
Resistance: 7,567.75 (today’s high) → 7,530–7,648 (Premium box) → 7,648.75 (Wick Sweep high)
Next-candle bias: NEUTRAL/cautious — this is a genuine divide, not a broad Nasdaq selloff: proven “AI monetization” winners are bid while the AI-infrastructure/chip complex that anchors the rest of the index rotates lower, precisely the tension Barron’s flagged this morning as a “high bar” for tomorrow’s SpaceX and AMD earnings after “a more skeptical reaction to artificial intelligence” last week. A reclaim of 28,698 would confirm the rally is broadening; a break under 28,383.50 would flag the chip-sector rotation as the dominant force.
Support: 28,383.50 (today’s low) → 27,700 (recent shelf) → 27,201.50 (correction low)
Resistance: 28,698.25 (today’s high) → 29,577.50 (Wick Sweep) → 30,750+ (Premium zone)
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — the Dow’s cyclical/industrial tilt is the most direct beneficiary of the Iran de-escalation and the crash in oil (lower input costs, easing yield pressure). Holding above 52,804 (former resistance, now support-in-progress) keeps the breakout toward the Premium zone alive.
Support: 52,804 (former Wick Sweep, now support-in-progress) → 52,705 → 51,732 structural
Resistance: 53,204 (today’s high) → 53,656 (Premium floor) → fresh highs beyond
Next-candle bias: BULLISH — small-cap participation (IWM reportedly +0.63%) confirms today’s rally is broadening beyond mega-cap tech alone, consistent with the Dow’s leadership. A close above 2,964 keeps the reclaim intact; a loss of 2,948 reopens the CHoCH zone.
Support: 2,948.4 (today’s low) → 2,900 structural → 2,820
Resistance: 2,964.1 (today’s high) → 3,016.3 (Wick Sweep) → 3,068.4 (July high)
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary lead on Alphabet’s and Amazon’s continued post-earnings surges; Industrials/Financials firm on the Dow’s Iran/oil-driven cyclical bid. Energy is the standout laggard as WTI and Brent both crash on the Iran de-escalation headline. Technology is more mixed than the QQQ headline (+0.51%) suggests — mega-cap winners are offsetting broad chip/AI-infrastructure weakness (INTC, MRVL, NBIS red pre-market). Real Estate and Utilities firm as long yields ease alongside the oil-driven inflation relief. Healthcare soft on AstraZeneca’s selloff dragging the group despite BMY’s own gain. Small-caps (IWM +0.63%) confirm the rally is broadening beyond mega-cap tech. ~est. from pre-market ETF proxies.
Market Bias
- 🟢 Futures mostly green: YM +1.04% (leads), RTY +0.61%, ES +0.47%; NQ flat −0.06% on chip/AI-infra rotation drag
- 🟢 Trump calls off “biggest attack since WWII” on Iran: new talks framed to begin Monday afternoon, covering the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s denuclearization
- 🔴 Iran disputes the talks are scheduled: “We currently do not have negotiations with America” — real headline-risk wrinkle into the session
- 🟢 Oil crashes on the de-escalation: WTI −6.76% to $78.95, Brent −8.88% to $82.95 — the sharpest single-day oil move in months, easing inflation/yield pressure
- 🟢 First joint US-Japan yen intervention since 2011: Japan sold ~$60B, US committed $5–10B, Fed repo facility using Japanese bond collateral activated; yen +~4%
- 🟢 MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL all extending Friday’s blowout post-earnings gains for a second-plus session
- 🔴 AstraZeneca −7% on reported $400B BMY merger talks — BMY (today’s Top 5 pick) is the direct beneficiary of the merger-premium speculation
- 🟡 Chip/AI-infrastructure complex broadly red pre-market (INTC, MRVL, NBIS, BE, AAOI, AXTI, CRCL) despite the bullish index tape — Barron’s flags a “high bar” for tomorrow’s SpaceX/AMD earnings
- 🟡 PLTR reports Q2 after today’s close: consensus $1.81B revenue (+81% YoY), $0.34–0.35 EPS, eighth straight beat streak on the line
Sources: Bloomberg Morning Briefing, Reuters Daily Briefing/Morning Bid, Barron’s Daily, Yahoo Finance Morning Brief, Benzinga Ring the Bell, CNBC, TradingView futures/VIX charts, pre-market scanner data
Overall Economic Summary
The dominant story of the morning is geopolitical: President Trump said late Sunday that he called off what he described as “the biggest attack since World War II” on Iran, partly in response to pleas from Middle East allies including Saudi Arabia, and that new talks to end the conflict — covering a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s denuclearization — would begin Monday afternoon. Iran’s Foreign Ministry immediately disputed the claim, with spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei telling reporters “We currently do not have negotiations with America,” while confirming only that Iran is in advanced talks with Oman over a temporary safe shipping route through the Strait. The market reaction has been unambiguous regardless of the dispute: WTI crude is down 6.76% to $78.95 and Brent is down 8.88% to $82.95, the sharpest single-day oil move in months, as traders price out war-risk premium. Separately, the US and Japan carried out their first joint yen-buying intervention since 2011 overnight — Japan sold roughly $60B, the US Treasury committed $5–10B per Secretary Bessent’s “to-do list,” and a Fed repo facility using Japan’s Treasury holdings as collateral was activated — lifting the yen about 4% off 40-year lows and easing a second source of global-macro anxiety tied to the BOJ’s delayed rate-hike path.
On top of the geopolitical relief, equity markets are still digesting last week’s blowout mega-cap earnings. Microsoft’s Q4 report (Azure revenue +43% YoY, a $678B cloud backlog) drove the largest single-day market-cap gain by any company in history Thursday, and Amazon followed with Q2 revenue of $200.6B and adjusted EPS of $1.97 (vs. $1.82 est.), powered by AWS growth accelerating to 37% — its fastest pace since 2021 — with CEO Andy Jassy noting demand already secured for 2028 is “striking” even as rising memory prices push capex estimates higher. Alphabet’s own Q2 print (revenue $119.8B vs. $116.43B est., cloud growth accelerating, ad revenue resilient) is also still being digested positively, reversing the stock’s late-July slump. All three names are extending their gains again this morning and anchor today’s Top 5. Aggregate S&P 500 Q2 profit growth is tracking 47% YoY per LSEG data — “almost twice what was expected a month ago” — powered by Big Tech AI spend, the big banks, and Big Oil. The flip side of that AI-earnings story is a real rotation underway in the AI-infrastructure and chip complex: INTC, MRVL, NBIS, BE, AAOI, AXTI and CRCL are all red in this morning’s pre-market scanner even as the broader tape rallies, and Barron’s used exactly this divergence this morning to frame a “high bar” for tomorrow’s SpaceX and AMD earnings after what it called “a more skeptical reaction to artificial intelligence” last week.
In single-stock news, AstraZeneca shares fell as much as 7% Monday after the Financial Times and Bloomberg reported the company held early-stage talks with Bristol-Myers Squibb over a roughly $400B mega-merger that would create the world’s fourth-largest drugmaker by market cap — a deal neither company has confirmed, but one that’s driving today’s BMY pick (the pipelines are largely complementary: AstraZeneca stronger in solid tumors, BMY in blood cancers and cell therapies). Oracle is also in focus after winning a $7B, 10-year U.S. Department of War contract and expanding its Google Cloud/Gemini partnership. The week’s marquee earnings event is Palantir’s Q2 report after today’s close — consensus calls for $1.81B revenue (+81% YoY) and $0.34–0.35 EPS, extending an eight-quarter beat streak, though the stock trades at a rich ~71x sales. SpaceX and AMD both report Tuesday after the close, with S&P Global Visible Alpha flagging SpaceX’s capex trajectory (from $48.7B this year to a projected $118.4B by FY2028, with debt growing more than 5x over the same span) as a key point of scrutiny. Today’s data highlight is the 10 AM ET ISM Manufacturing PMI (prior 53.3, consensus ~53–54), with the week closing on Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls report — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has separately floated changing FOMC meeting frequency and reducing press conferences, while NY Fed President John Williams said Monday he remains optimistic inflation is easing gradually but that the Fed “will not hesitate” to hike if it doesn’t.
Market Sentiment
YM1! leads at +1.04%, ES1! confirms at +0.47%, RTY1! at +0.61%, while NQ1! sits flat (−0.06%) — a clean BULLISH regime with one important nuance, and per today’s request the Top 5 is built entirely around user-specified names: Palantir, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. The macro tailwind is real and forceful — Trump’s Iran de-escalation has sent oil crashing (WTI −6.76%, Brent −8.88%) and is lifting the Dow-heavy cyclical/industrial complex, while MSFT, GOOGL, and AMZN are all extending Friday’s blowout post-earnings surges for a second-plus session, the clearest “AI capex is monetizing” evidence the market has seen. BMY is today’s single most newsworthy stock, riding speculation of a ~$400B AstraZeneca merger. The nuance is that NQ1!’s flatness isn’t noise — it reflects a genuine rotation out of the AI-infrastructure/chip complex (INTC, MRVL, NBIS, BE, AAOI, AXTI, CRCL all red pre-market) even as the mega-cap “proof of monetization” names rally, which is why today’s discretionary Secondary Movers lean short on that basket rather than chasing the group’s recent strength. Caveats: Iran disputes that any talks are actually scheduled today, which is real headline risk into the afternoon; the 10 AM ISM Manufacturing PMI can move the tape independently; and Palantir’s earnings drop after today’s close carry binary overnight-gap risk — this desk does not hold positions through that print.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | ~53.0–54.0 | 53.3 | MED |
| Morning | NY Fed Pres. John Williams remarks on inflation/rate path | — | — | LOW |
| Afternoon (TBD) | 🔴 US–Iran Talks — Trump says begin today; Iran disputes | — | — | HIGH |
| After Close | 🔴 Palantir (PLTR) Q2 Earnings | Rev $1.81B (+81% YoY) · EPS $0.34–0.35 | EPS $0.33 (Q1) | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
Q1 2026 beat with EPS $0.33 vs. $0.27 est. Focus tonight is AIP deployment momentum, enterprise production-stage growth, and whether US government business remains the largest growth driver. Stock trades at a rich ~71x sales/~113x forward earnings — a high bar. This desk does not hold positions through the print; treat today’s session as pre-earnings positioning only.
All three are extending Friday’s gains again this morning — the clearest evidence yet that hyperscaler AI capex is converting into real revenue. Anchors three of today’s five Top 5 picks (all user-specified).
AZN fell as much as 7% Monday on the report; neither company has confirmed. Anchors today’s BMY pick (user-specified).
Not on today’s list — context only. Barron’s frames both prints as facing “a high bar” after last week’s more skeptical AI reaction; watch today’s chip/AI-infra weakness as an early tell.
⚡ Also this week: ON Semiconductor, Loews, CAT/MRK/PFE (Tue BMO), LLY/NVO/DIS (Wed), FIG (Aug 5), plus dozens more through Friday’s jobs report — a genuinely heavy earnings week.
Key Events Today
🕊️ Iran De-Escalation Sends Oil Crashing
Trump calls off “the biggest attack since World War II” on Iran, frames new talks (Strait of Hormuz reopening, denuclearization) as beginning Monday afternoon. Iran disputes any talks are scheduled. WTI −6.76%, Brent −8.88% — real headline risk stays live into the afternoon.
💴 First Joint US–Japan Yen Intervention Since 2011
Japan sold ~$60B, the US committed $5–10B, and a Fed repo facility using Japanese Treasury holdings as collateral was activated. Yen +~4% off 40-year lows, easing a separate source of global-macro anxiety tied to the BOJ’s delayed hike path.
💊 AstraZeneca–Bristol Myers $400B Merger Talks
FT/Bloomberg report early-stage talks toward a combined ~$400B drugmaker, the world’s fourth-largest by market cap. AZN fell up to 7% Monday; BMY is the American beneficiary of the merger-premium speculation.
🤖 AI Monetization Winners vs. AI-Infra Skepticism
MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL surge again on hard monetization proof, while the chip/AI-infrastructure complex (INTC, MRVL, NBIS, BE, AAOI) rotates lower pre-market. Barron’s frames it as a “high bar” for tomorrow’s SpaceX/AMD earnings.
Top 5 Movers
Research Themes
🟢 AI Monetization Proof — Mega-Cap Continuation
MSFT (Azure +43%, historic market-cap gain), AMZN (AWS +37%, fastest since 2021), and GOOGL (revenue beat, laggard-catchup confirming) are all extending Friday’s gains again this morning — the hardest evidence yet that hyperscaler AI capex is converting into real revenue. ORCL ($7B DoW contract, Google Cloud/Gemini partnership) and NOW (its own AI-platform pre-market gap) round out a confirmed group riding the same thesis.
🔴 AI Infrastructure Capex-Skepticism Rotation
Barron’s used this morning’s divergence to flag “a high bar” for tomorrow’s SpaceX/AMD earnings after “a more skeptical reaction to artificial intelligence” last week. INTC, MRVL, NBIS, BE, and AAOI are all red in today’s pre-market scanner despite the broadly bullish index tape — direct evidence the chip/AI-infrastructure complex is rotating lower even as mega-cap “proof of monetization” names rally.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | PM Gap % | PM Vol | Beta / ATR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $129.87 | +2.39% | 425K | β2.36 / ATR $7.74 | Highest 5-min RVOL in today’s entire scanner (7.41×). Fresh $7B, 10-year US Dept. of War contract plus expanded Google Cloud/Gemini partnership. Ties directly into the AI-monetization theme. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $90.20 | −2.97% | 1.31M | β3.35 / ATR $8.62 | Highest absolute pre-market volume of any name in today’s scanner. Red despite the bullish index tape — the clearest single-name proxy for the chip/AI-infra rotation theme. Short on breakdown with volume confirmation. |
| CRCL | Circle Internet Group, Inc. | $62.61 | −6.01% | 700K | β2.38 / ATR $5.29 | Highest 5-min RVOL among the short candidates (7.71×). Stablecoin/crypto-infrastructure name pulling back sharply pre-market — diversifies the short basket beyond pure chip names. Short on breakdown. |
| NOW | ServiceNow, Inc. | $111.23 | +3.88% | 263K | β0.97 / ATR $6.78 | Enterprise AI-platform name gapping up alongside the MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL monetization theme. 5-min RVOL 5.02×. Beta sits just under the 1.0 floor but ATR clears comfortably. Long on ORB breakout with volume confirmation. |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding Limited | $122.25 | +4.10% | — | β0.50 / ATR ~$4.44 | Surging on the Qwen3.8-Max model launch (2.4T parameters, competitive with leading Western models, open-sourcing next week) plus a Moonshot AI compute deal. Day chg +5.10%. Beta/ATR both run thin versus this desk’s usual floors — a headline-driven special situation like BMY, size accordingly. Long on ORB breakout. |
Names excluded from today’s list despite appearing on the scanner: MRVL (−3.36% PM, solid ATR $19.53 but swapped out per desk request), BE (−4.34% PM, highest Beta/ATR combo on the scanner but swapped out per desk request), AXTI (−5.79% PM, but already extended +28.7% over the prior sessions — the user’s own scanner flags it as a Secondary Short setup), NBIS (−2.84% PM, ATR $25.84 strong but crowded out of the 5-name cap), AAOI (−4.29% PM, ATR $14.52 solid but thinnest PM volume of the group at 129K), BMNR (−2.37% PM, ATR $1.29 below the preferred $5 floor), FIG/LNTH/NCLH/AAL/TSN (all cut on thin ATR and/or sub-1.0 Beta).
Themed Movers
MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL are all extending Friday’s blowout post-earnings gains again this morning, and Oracle is confirming the same thesis with a fresh $7B DoW contract and an expanded Google Cloud/Gemini partnership — the market’s clearest read yet that hyperscaler AI capex is converting into real, measurable revenue rather than just spend.
INTC, MRVL, NBIS, BE, and AAOI are all red pre-market despite the broadly bullish index tape — direct evidence the chip/AI-infrastructure complex is rotating lower even as “proof of monetization” mega-caps rally, precisely the divergence Barron’s flagged this morning as a “high bar” for tomorrow’s SpaceX and AMD earnings.
Session Playbook
All three mega-caps should hold well above Friday’s close on volume. ORCL’s 7.41× RVOL is the highest in the scanner — let the 5-min opening range complete before entering on a breakout with volume confirmation.
Medium-impact print (consensus ~53–54 vs. prior 53.3). A strong beat could revive Fed-hike chatter and cap today’s Iran/oil relief rally; a soft print supports continuation.
Iran disputes that talks are actually scheduled — any headline confirming or denying negotiations can whipsaw oil and, by extension, the Dow-led cyclical bid. Trim size into this window if not comfortable with a fast reversal.
PLTR reports after today’s close with an eight-quarter beat streak on the line against a rich ~71x sales multiple. This desk trades the pre-earnings drift only and does not hold positions through the print.
Overnight Intelligence
🌏 Asia / Pacific
🌍 Middle East / Macro
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Mon Aug 3 | TODAY — ISM Manufacturing PMI 10 AM · US–Iran talks (afternoon, disputed) · Palantir (PLTR) earnings AMC Iran de-escalation and the yen intervention dominate the macro tape; MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL extend last week’s earnings gains while the chip/AI-infra complex rotates lower. |
| Tue Aug 4 | SpaceX (SPCX) first public earnings report · AMD earnings, both AMC · JOLTS Job Openings · Factory Orders Marquee earnings day. SpaceX capex projected to rise from $48.7B (FY26) to $118.4B (FY28E) — a key scrutiny point per Visible Alpha. |
| Wed Aug 5 | ADP Employment · ISM Services PMI · Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Disney earnings · Figma (FIG) earnings GLP-1 rivals LLY/NVO report same-day; continued read on labor-market softness ahead of Friday’s payrolls. |
| Thu Aug 6 | Weekly Jobless Claims Last labor-market data point before Friday’s headline report. |
| Fri Aug 7 | July Nonfarm Payrolls Report The week’s single biggest data point — a strong print could reignite rate-hike chatter given Chair Warsh’s more hawkish public guidance stance. |