TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
Bullishupdated 7:32 AM PT
Sector Heatmap
All 11 S&P sectors are green pre-market — broad risk-on breadth. Cyclicals lead (Industrials +1.33%, Materials +1.33%, Technology +1.30%), while defensives lag (Energy +0.16%, Staples +0.18%), a classic post-selloff relief-rally rotation.
Market Bias
- Futures: S&P futures +0.82% (ES1!), Nasdaq +1.09%, Dow +0.77% — strongly positive, +20
- VIX: 15.95, down 9.99% off yesterday’s Fed-hike spike but still inside the 15–20 band — 0
- Newsletter tone: Mixed-to-cautious — Yahoo Morning Brief flags “a Wall Street bull feeling less bullish” against Fed’s hawkish hike-and-hike-again signal; Bloomberg leads with trade-tension escalation — -5
- Stocktwits: No same-day newsletter delivered — data pending — 0
- CNN Fear & Greed: 28–29 (Fear), as of yesterday’s close — -10
Sources: Bloomberg Morning Briefing Americas, Yahoo Finance Morning Brief, CNN Fear & Greed Index, TRDXCA TradingView terminal.
Overall Economic Summary
The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023 yesterday, lifting the target range 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% under new Chair Kevin Warsh — and the accompanying dot plot penciled in at least one more hike, a hawkish surprise that hit equities into Wednesday’s close and sent the 10-year yield pressing toward 5%. Warsh, who a year ago was criticizing the Fed for keeping rates too high, is now defying President Trump’s push for cuts as war-related supply shocks and tariff-driven inflation keep price pressures elevated. Futures are bouncing this morning as traders digest the hike alongside a still-resilient earnings and AI-capex backdrop, but the move higher looks more like relief than conviction.
Sector-wise, the AI infrastructure buildout remains the dominant equity narrative: all 11 S&P sectors are green pre-market, led by Industrials, Materials and Technology. A wave of bitcoin-miner-to-AI-datacenter pivots is producing today’s most extreme gappers — Core Scientific’s $14B+, 15-year AMD colocation partnership, Cipher Digital’s data-center power-supply update (Bernstein reiterated Buy Sept 1), and TeraWulf’s ~$19B, 20-year Anthropic lease are all driving outsized pre-market volume in names most day traders watch closely. Separately, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and OpenAI’s Sarah Friar are meeting King Charles III in Scotland today alongside Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis, underscoring how central the AI buildout has become to markets and policy alike.
Key risks into the session: trade tensions are escalating again (Trump is threatening EU tariffs tied to a proposed EU–Canada associate-membership deal, and Congress just passed a bill enabling tariffs on buyers of Russian oil), the 10-year yield is flirting with the psychologically important 5% level as the market reprices a more hawkish Fed path, and tomorrow (Friday, Sept 18) is quadruple-witching — expect elevated volume and potential pinning/volatility into Friday’s close. VIX cooling nearly 10% off yesterday’s spike suggests the immediate fear flare-up is unwinding, even as the CNN Fear & Greed Index still reads “Fear” at 28.
Market Sentiment
Regime call: BULLISH. S&P 500 futures are +0.82% (ES1!, Bloomberg’s 7:26 AM ET snapshot had them +0.9% at 7,688), Nasdaq 100 futures +1.09%, and Dow futures +0.77% this morning — comfortably above the +0.25% threshold that triggers a long-only bias. Filtering long setups first today. Breadth confirms the call: the Russell 2000 is +0.89% and every S&P sector is positive pre-market. Watch the 10Y yield (4.97%, pressing toward 5%) and tomorrow’s quad-witching expiration as the two wildcards that could flip intraday tone.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30 AM | Building Permits (Aug) | 1.400M | 1.433M | MED |
| 7:30 AM | Housing Starts (Aug, m/m) | ~est. | -12.4% | MED |
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | ~235K est. | ~est. | MED |
| 8:30 AM | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | ~est. | Employment sub-index 27.9 | LOW |
| 9:00 AM | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (update) | — | — | LOW |
Sources: Investing.com economic calendar, TradingEconomics. No further Fed speakers scheduled today — Wednesday’s Warsh press conference was the main event this week.
Today’s Earnings
No major earnings scheduled for today. Earnings calendars show only smaller-cap names reporting Thursday with no clear market-moving names confirmed as of this morning.
Key Events Today
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, and Google DeepMind co-founder Demis Hassabis meet the British monarch, who is seeking assurances the AI industry will “protect mankind.” Headline risk for AI-adjacent names if commentary turns toward regulation.
President Trump kicks off a nationwide midterm campaign push in a closely contested Senate race, alongside continued rhetoric on EU/Canada tariffs. Trade-headline risk stays elevated into the weekend.
Tomorrow is quadruple options/futures expiration — the third Friday of a March/June/Sept/Dec cycle month. Expect above-average volume and potential pinning around large open-interest strikes into Thursday’s and Friday’s closes.
Top 5 Movers
CATALYST: No single confirmed headline this morning, but Nebius — the vertically-integrated AI cloud/GPU infrastructure provider spun out of Yandex — is extending its recent AI-capex-driven strength as the sector’s highest-liquidity pre-market gapper.
WHY IT’S MOVING: Broad AI infrastructure enthusiasm (Yahoo Morning Brief: “AI profit growth is showing up everywhere”) plus today’s bullish regime and heaviest pre-market volume of the entire scan (586K shares) are pulling institutional flow into the largest, most liquid AI-infra name.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor ~$209 (~est.). Expected opening range $205–$213 (~est.). 20/50-day MAs trending up, price extended above both (~est.). ATR(14): $17.05 — a full-ATR move today would be an outsized event. Bias: long, buy pullbacks to VWAP.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $200.85 (0.5 ATR), $192.32 (1 ATR, prior base). Resistance: $217.90 (0.5 ATR), $226.42 (1 ATR, psychological/round-number zone).
CATALYST: Core Scientific announced a landmark 15-year, $14B+ colocation partnership with AMD for 530 MW of data-center capacity, expanding to 2.5 GW — a hard, contracted-revenue catalyst as the company continues its pivot from bitcoin mining to AI colocation.
WHY IT’S MOVING: Relative volume of 6.11x (highest of today’s scan) confirms institutional participation; Q2 colocation revenue of $137M and 437MW billable capacity give the AMD deal real near-term financial weight, and the stock is heading into the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference this month for continued investor exposure.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor ~$16.90 (~est.). Expected opening range $16.40–$17.50 (~est.). 20/50-day MAs: stock has been under multi-week pressure (90-day return -43%) but is bouncing hard off the AMD news — momentum favors a short-term long. ATR(14): $1.19. Bias: long, momentum breakout.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $16.29 (0.5 ATR), $15.70 (1 ATR, prior swing low). Resistance: $17.48 (0.5 ATR), $18.07 (1 ATR).
WYCKOFF PHASE: Potential Phase-D markup off an accumulation base after a prolonged 90-day decline, contingent on volume follow-through.
CATALYST: Shares jumped on a data-center power-supply update as Cipher’s AI/HPC pivot accelerates; Bernstein reiterated its Buy rating on CIFR as recently as Sept 1. The company (with Fluidstack and Anthropic) is also investing $10M in Colorado City’s water infrastructure to de-risk its Barley Lake data-center site.
WHY IT’S MOVING: Stock was already up double-digits Sept 15–16 on the power-supply news; today’s follow-through gap suggests continuation buying from momentum and swing accounts rather than a fresh headline. Rebranded from Cipher Mining to Cipher Digital in February, signaling the strategic shift from pure bitcoin mining to hyperscaler HPC hosting.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor ~$16.75 (~est.). Expected opening range $16.10–$17.60 (~est.). Price extended after a multi-day run — expect some give-back risk. ATR(14): $1.72. Bias: long, but size down after the recent run.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $15.86 (0.5 ATR), $15.00 (1 ATR, round number). Resistance: $17.58 (0.5 ATR), $18.44 (1 ATR).
CATALYST: AXT is being added to the S&P SmallCap 600 index, replacing Matthews International, effective before the open Monday Sept 21 — a mechanical, index-fund-driven buying catalyst. Layered on top: record Q2 revenue of $47.6M on strong indium phosphide (InP) substrate demand and new supply agreements.
WHY IT’S MOVING: Index-inclusion flows plus a genuine growth story in InP substrates (used in photonics/AI optical interconnects) are compounding; the stock has been extremely volatile over the past week (swings from ~$55 to ~$93 intraday reported), so expect wide ranges. Management is also mid-way through a run of investor conferences.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor ~$64.50 (~est.). Expected opening range $61–$69 (~est., unusually wide given recent volatility). ATR(14): $7.25 — among the largest ATRs in today’s scan relative to price. Bias: long into the index-inclusion window, but respect the volatility with smaller size.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $60.68 (0.5 ATR), $57.05 (1 ATR). Resistance: $67.93 (0.5 ATR), $71.55 (1 ATR).
CATALYST: A 482 MW power deal in Kentucky unlocks a potential $4.0–$4.5B AI/HPC campus, and a 20-year, ~401 MW Anthropic lease at TeraWulf’s repurposed smelter site anchors an estimated $19B in contracted revenue — two of the largest hard catalysts in today’s scan.
WHY IT’S MOVING: Wall Street coverage has turned bullish with fresh Buy/Outperform ratings even after a pullback, though note this cuts against a recent wave of insider selling (CEO Paul Prager sold ~$2.35M, director Walter Carter sold ~$1.98M on Aug 31) — a headwind worth watching if the gap fades.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor ~$15.40 (~est.). Expected opening range $14.90–$16.10 (~est.). ATR(14): $1.27. Bias: long, but tighter stop given the insider-selling overhang.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $14.76 (0.5 ATR), $14.12 (1 ATR). Resistance: $16.03 (0.5 ATR), $16.66 (1 ATR).
Research Themes
Bitcoin Miner → AI Data Center Pivot
Crypto miners are repurposing power infrastructure into long-duration, contracted AI/HPC hosting revenue — CORZ’s $14B AMD deal, WULF’s ~$19B Anthropic lease, and CIFR’s power-supply expansion are today’s clearest examples. This theme is producing the largest, most catalyst-driven pre-market gaps in the entire scan and should keep drawing momentum flow as more hyperscaler leases get announced.
Tickers: CORZ, CIFR, WULF, IREN, APLD, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BMNR
AI Infrastructure & Chip Ecosystem Strength
Semiconductor and AI-cloud names are broadly green pre-market on continued capex enthusiasm; AXTI’s mechanical S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion (effective Monday) plus record InP substrate revenue adds an index-flow tailwind on top of the sector move. King Charles III’s AI-safety meeting with Nvidia, OpenAI and DeepMind leadership today keeps the AI narrative front and center.
Tickers: NBIS, AXTI, CRDO, MRVL, INTC, SMCI, ORCL
Rate-Path Repricing Into Quad Witching
With the 10-year yield pressing toward 5% after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed hike, and tomorrow’s quadruple-witching expiration on deck, expect volatility to stay elevated into Friday’s close even as VIX unwinds from yesterday’s spike. High-beta AI/crypto names are the most likely to see outsized swings both ways.
Tickers: broad market — VIX, SPY/QQQ proxies, high-beta AI/crypto complex above
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | IREN Limited | $42.62 | +4.76% | 651K | AI/HPC datacenter pivot alongside CORZ/WULF; strong rel. vol at 1.86x. |
| APLD | Applied Digital Corp | $24.39 | +4.26% | 342K | AI cloud infrastructure hosting name, part of the same crypto-to-AI rotation theme. |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | $145.62 | +3.93% | 155K | No confirmed hard catalyst found this morning; acceptable-sector biotech gap only. |
| CRCL | Circle Internet Group | $80.45 | +3.13% | 332K | Stablecoin issuer, crypto-fintech proxy; still down sharply on the daily (-6.8%). |
| USAR | USA Rare Earth, Inc. | $15.10 | +2.72% | 219K | Strategic materials/supply-chain name; acceptable tier, not core growth theme. |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group | $161.49 | +4.53% | 127K | AI-networking chip name, +7.4% on the daily; preferred semis tier. |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp | $270.02 | +4.44% | 122K | Fuel-cell power for AI data centers; preferred next-gen power tier. |
| MARA | MARA Holdings, Inc. | $11.04 | +3.63% | 356K | Bitcoin proxy; lower-priced, higher-vol miner. |
| NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor | $10.48 | +3.24% | 227K | Power semiconductors for AI/EV; small ATR, high beta (4.67). |
| CLSK | CleanSpark, Inc. | $12.79 | +3.07% | 161K | Bitcoin miner/AI proxy, part of the crypto-pivot cohort. |
| RIOT | Riot Platforms, Inc. | $20.35 | +3.05% | 107K | Bitcoin miner, lowest rel. vol (2.74x) of the crypto cohort today. |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $101.05 | +2.80% | 1.10M | Heaviest pre-market share volume in the scan; foundry/AI-chip turnaround story. |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology | $229.71 | +2.66% | 104K | AI-networking/custom-silicon chipmaker; preferred semis tier. |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | $14.79 | +2.37% | 167K | Quantum computing, adjacent AI/growth theme; high beta 4.05. |
| QBTS | D-Wave Quantum Inc. | $16.27 | +2.15% | 181K | Quantum computing peer to RGTI/IONQ; highest beta in scan (4.63). |
| IONQ | IonQ, Inc. | $36.84 | +2.14% | 199K | Quantum computing; on TRDXCA primary watchlist today. |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | $36.85 | +2.14% | 250K | AI server hardware, core AI-infra name; on TRDXCA primary watchlist. |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | $143.16 | +2.04% | 299K | Cloud/database, AI-capex beneficiary; mega-cap liquidity. |
| BMNR | BitMine Immersion Technologies | $22.81 | +2.02% | 668K | Bitcoin treasury company; second-highest pre-market volume in the scan. |
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event/Description |
|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18 | Quadruple Witching Stock options, index options, index futures and single-stock futures all expire — expect elevated volume and potential price pinning into the close. |
| Mon, Sep 21 | AXTI joins S&P SmallCap 600 Effective before the open, replacing Matthews International — mechanical index-fund buying flow. |
| Tue, Sep 22 | Flash PMI data (Manufacturing & Services) Early read on September economic activity, first major data point after this week’s Fed hike. |
| Wed, Sep 23 | No major scheduled catalysts Watch for continued follow-through (or fade) in this week’s AI-datacenter gappers. |
| Thu, Sep 24 | Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Standard weekly labor-market check-in; watch for any drift following the Fed’s hawkish pivot. |
| Tue, Oct 27 – Wed, Oct 28 | Next FOMC Meeting Markets are pricing a series of further hikes — this is the next major rate-path catalyst. |