E-Mini Futures — 1D Chart Analysis
Structure: Upper TrendLine Break confirmed. Wick Sweep near 7,418.25 swept & reclaimed. Near Weak High at 7,648.75 — next key resistance.
MAs: Price above all short/medium MAs (blue/green). 200-day (orange) far below ~6,900.
Volume: High-volume node 7,400–7,500 = structural support. Current price in thinner distribution above.
Oscillator: Approaching overbought; momentum slowing.
S/R: Support 7,550 / 7,418. Resistance 7,648 / 7,686.
⚖ NEUTRAL — FOMC doji candle
Structure: CHoCH (Change of Character) established at ~30,975 — structural bullish shift. Upper TrendLine Break intact.
Wick Sweeps: Near 28,694.75 & 28,871.25 both swept and fully reclaimed — strong institutional accumulation signal.
MAs: Short-term MAs stacked bullishly above medium above long-term.
Volume: Large green bars in May-June recovery; current smaller bars = consolidation before next leg.
S/R: Support 29,800 / 29,200. Resistance 30,584 (session high) / 30,975 (CHoCH).
↑ BULLISH LEAN — leading complex
Structure: BOS (Break of Structure) confirmed on the daily. Two consecutive record closing highs (June 15–16).
Price: Near PS High 52,638. EQH zone forming above current price.
MAs: All MAs rising and below price — cleanest trend of all four contracts.
Rotation: Dow outperforming tech on Monday/Tuesday = defensive rotation signal. Warsh hold = Dow-friendly.
S/R: Support 51,200 / 50,400. Resistance 52,638 (PS High) / 53,200.
⚖ NEUTRAL — near ATH consolidation
Structure: BOS confirmed. EQH (Equal Highs) near 3,000 — major psychological and technical resistance.
Wick Sweep: Near 2,821.8 swept and reclaimed — supportive for bulls.
MAs: Short/medium MAs above price by a small margin; price lagging.
Oscillator: Divergence visible — oscillator not confirming the new structure highs.
S/R: Support 2,880 / 2,821. Resistance 3,000 (EQH) / 3,012 (Weak High).
⚖ NEUTRAL — 3,000 EQH wall ahead
⚡ Combined Implications — Morning Playbook
NQ leads at +0.34% while ES/YM/RTY all print flat — pure growth/tech rotation signal. Both ES and NQ have reclaimed their wick sweep levels (7,418 and 28,871), satisfying the structural confirmation requirement for long bias. RTY approaching the 3,000 EQH wall — small caps remain the weakest link.
FOMC binary risk at 2:00 PM ET. Morning playbook: press NQ-correlated longs (AI/semi) in the first 90 minutes. Reduce exposure to 50% by noon, flat by 1:30 PM ET ahead of Warsh’s press conference. Post-FOMC: let price action develop before re-entering. If Warsh sounds hawkish (hints at hike), expect NQ to sell off sharply. If dovish/neutral, NQ extension toward 30,975 CHoCH is the target.
📊 Technical Outlook — ES1! & NQ1! Key Levels
Next-candle daily bias: NEUTRAL with NQ upward lean. Both ES and NQ sitting below recent structure highs with FOMC as the catalyst gate. Bulls need ES to close above 7,648 to confirm ATH breakout; bears need ES below 7,550 EMA cluster to start a correction. NQ has the cleaner structure — watch 30,584 as the near-term bull/bear line on the session.
ES Bull Target
7,648 → 7,686
ES Bear Target
7,550 → 7,418
NQ Bull Target
30,584 → 30,975
NQ Bear Target
29,800 → 29,200
Stock Selection (Bull)
AI · Semis · Foundry
Stock Selection (Bear)
Consumer Retail · Defensive
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Financials lead on FOMC rate-hold optimism (+1.47%); Energy drags on Iran sanctions-lift expectation driving Brent toward $79. Tech (XLK) slightly positive on NQ leadership. XLF, XLI, XLC in green — risk-on rotation with defensive underperformance. ~est. values for XLK, XLC, XLY, XLP, XLB, XLRE, XLU based on futures and sector context.
Market Bias
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
- 📈 Futures (+0 pts): ES −0.01% — squarely neutral, no directional impulse.
- 😶 VIX 16.20 (+0 pts): In the 15–20 “moderate” band; elevated but not panicked.
- 📰 Newsletter tone (+2 pts): Cautiously constructive — Dow records offset by FOMC uncertainty and Iran volatility.
- 💬 Stocktwits (+2 pts): SpaceX fever running hot; semiconductor names trending bullishly.
- 📊 Sectors (+0 pts): XLF strong but XLE weak; no dominant directional signal.
Sources: Reuters Morning Bid, Stocktwits headlines, CME futures, CBOE VIX
Overall Economic Summary
Today belongs to Kevin Warsh. The new Federal Reserve Chair steps into his inaugural FOMC press conference at 2:30 PM ET with markets parsing every syllable for clues about the rate path ahead. Policymakers are universally expected to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, making the messaging — not the decision itself — the actual market-moving variable. Warsh has publicly pledged to scale back forward guidance, meaning today’s press conference could be notably terse, which itself injects uncertainty. Critically, at least three FOMC voting members may signal rate-hike projections in the updated dot plot, and markets will scrutinize whether Warsh validates that hawkish tilt or pushes back. The morning trade is clean; the afternoon is a minefield.
Layered beneath the Fed drama is the Iran deal, which is reshaping commodity markets in real time. The U.S.-Iran framework includes a $300 billion private investment fund and language pointing to a phased lifting of all oil sanctions. Brent crude dipped to ~$79/barrel on Tuesday and is holding there this morning, with bond yields falling in sympathy. If the deal holds, structurally lower oil prices reduce input cost pressures — a mild tailwind for margins, a headwind for energy stocks, and a complication for the Fed’s inflation calculus.
SpaceX mania is the dominant stock-specific narrative. The company surpassed Amazon’s market capitalization ($2.646T) on Tuesday and briefly eclipsed Microsoft ($2.92T), closing up nearly 5% on its own exchange listing. This morning’s pre-market session adds a new catalyst: SpaceX’s announced acquisition of Anysphere (maker of AI coding tool Cursor) in an all-stock deal valued at ~$60 billion — the company’s first-ever acquisition and a major signal of its AI infrastructure ambitions. The acquisition sent SPCX shares down ~4% from Tuesday’s all-time high, potentially a profit-taking flush rather than a fundamental rejection, with the debate between dilution fear and AI growth narrative likely to dominate sentiment early in the session.
On the macro data front, May Retail Sales print at 8:30 AM ET alongside Import/Export Prices and Industrial Production at 9:15 AM. Given the FOMC overlay, any hot retail or industrial data strengthens the hawkish case and weighs on rate-sensitive growth names. G7 leaders are meeting in France to discuss Iran and global growth; watch for communiqué language on trade and energy that could move commodities and European equities mid-session.
Market Sentiment
Regime: NEUTRAL — ES1! at −0.01% places us squarely inside the neutral band (±0.25%). Filtering stock-specific, catalyst-driven setups today. The four-contract picture is internally divergent: NQ leads at +0.34% (growth/AI bid), YM prints slightly negative at −0.06% (Dow rotation fatigue), RTY barely positive at +0.04% (small caps stalling at 3,000 EQH). The morning window before 1:30 PM ET offers actionable setups in preferred sectors; the afternoon FOMC event is a mandatory exit gate.
S&P futures: 7,586.25 (−0.01%). Nasdaq futures: 30,418.25 (+0.34%). Dow futures: 52,436 (−0.06%). On FOMC days, the historical pattern is a compressed opening range followed by a directional flush within 15 minutes of the 2 PM statement. Play the morning playbook with conviction; cut all intraday exposure by 1:30 PM ET.
Key Market Stats
Nasdaq Futures
30,418
+0.34%
Dow Futures
52,436
−0.06%
Russell Futures
2,965
+0.04%
10Y Yield
~4.28%
▼ Falling
WTI Crude
~$79.20
Iran deal
Brent Crude
~$79.00
▼ ~$80 floor
Note: “~est.” = estimated from available data; exact real-time quotes unavailable pre-market. Futures from attached TradingView charts as of 8:00 AM ET Jun 17.
Economic Calendar — June 17, 2026
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|
| 8:30 AM |
May Retail Sales
Commerce Department — gauge of consumer spending health |
+0.3% | +0.5% |
HIGH |
| 8:30 AM |
May Import / Export Prices
Labor Dept — inflation at the border; Iran deal dampens import prices |
Import −0.2% | Import +0.1% |
MED |
| 9:15 AM |
May Industrial Production
Federal Reserve — factory + mining + utility output |
+0.2% | +0.3% |
MED |
| 10:00 AM |
April Business Inventories
Commerce Dept — inventory build = potential GDP drag signal |
+0.3% | +0.2% |
LOW |
| 2:00 PM |
FOMC Rate Decision ⭐
Kevin Warsh’s first meeting — hold expected at 3.50–3.75%; dot plot changes = the real catalyst |
Hold 3.50–3.75% | 3.50–3.75% |
HIGH |
| 2:30 PM |
Warsh Press Conference ⭐
First press conference as Chair — less guidance = more volatility. Market will dissect every word for hike vs. cut bias |
— | — |
HIGH |
⚠ Juneteenth holiday Thursday June 19 — weekly Jobless Claims release moved to Wednesday June 18. Markets closed Thursday.
Today’s Earnings
Reported EPS: $1.31 (diluted) · Prior Year EPS: $1.38 · Est. Miss: ~39% below consensus · Revenue: $8.0B (+6.2% YoY, missed est. by 6.1%)
CarMax missed badly on both the top and bottom line for Q1 FY2026 (quarter ended May 31). Net earnings per diluted share fell year-over-year from $1.38 to $1.31, while the EPS miss vs. consensus was a jarring 39%. Revenue came in at $8.0 billion — growing 6.2% YoY but still 6.1% short of what the Street expected. With consumer spending under pressure from still-elevated borrowing costs and a cautious auto market, KMX’s results signal that discretionary spending on big-ticket items remains stressed. Watch for selling pressure to accelerate if the FOMC press conference raises rate expectations further this afternoon.
No other major S&P 500 earnings are scheduled pre-market for June 17, 2026.
Key Events Today
🏛 FOMC Rate Decision + Warsh Press Conference
2:00 PM / 2:30 PM ET. Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. Rate hold at 3.50–3.75% nearly certain; the dot plot and press conference language drive the volatility. Watch for whether Warsh eliminates the single projected rate cut from March’s dot plot — if so, that’s a hawkish signal. Three FOMC members are potentially signaling rate hike projections. Warsh’s stated preference for “less forward guidance” means the press conference may deliver less clarity, not more.
🚀 SpaceX / SPCX — Cursor Acquisition
All day. SpaceX announced the acquisition of Anysphere (AI coding tool Cursor) in an all-stock deal worth ~$60 billion. This is SpaceX’s first-ever acquisition and signals an aggressive push into AI. SPCX gapping down ~4.3% pre-market from Tuesday’s ATH ($225.64) as market debates stock dilution vs. AI optionality narrative. SpaceX’s market cap surpassed Amazon’s ($2.646T) on Tuesday; Microsoft ($2.92T) remains the next target.
🌐 G7 Leaders Summit — France
All day. G7 economy leaders meet in France to discuss the Iran war’s global growth impact, energy supply disruptions, and the U.S.-Iran $300B investment framework. Communiqué language on trade, tariffs, and energy could move commodity markets mid-session. Leaders expected to avoid directly criticizing the Trump administration’s negotiating approach despite significant geopolitical friction.
🔬 Intel VLSI Symposium — 18A-P Disclosure
All day (Honolulu, HI). Intel’s foundry division presented data showing its 18A-P process node has entered risk production. The node delivers 9% higher performance at iso-power (or 18% lower power at iso-performance) vs. Intel 18A. This is a significant foundry milestone that directly challenges TSMC’s process leadership narrative. Watch INTC, ONTO, AEHR, and the broader foundry ecosystem for follow-through buying.
📊 May Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET)
Consensus: +0.3% vs. Prior +0.5%. A hot print (above +0.5%) strengthens the hawkish case ahead of the 2 PM FOMC decision and could pressure rate-sensitive growth names like high-multiple software and fintech. A miss (below +0.1%) would provide cover for Warsh to sound more dovish and lift NQ. This is the last major data point before the decision and may set the morning tone.
🌍 U.S.–Iran Oil Sanctions Framework
All day. Details of the preliminary U.S.–Iran MOU continue to emerge. The framework includes potential lifting of all U.S. and UN sanctions on Iran contingent on a final deal. Additional Iranian supply is bearish for WTI/Brent (currently ~$79/barrel). Energy sector ETF (XLE) already trading down −0.34% pre-market. Monitor developments for impact on oil-correlated equities (XOM, CVX, OXY, XLE) and Bitcoin/safe-haven flows.
Top 5 Movers — NEUTRAL Regime | Both Directions | Morning Only
Sector: Electronic Technology (PREFERRED) · Pre-mkt Vol: 1,242,372 (avg ~132M/day, 0.94× daily) · RVOL 5-min: 4.28× · ATR(14): $9.62 · Beta: 3.06 · Float: >4B shares · Price range: ✓ ($117.05 < $500)
🔥 Catalyst
Intel’s foundry division disclosed at the 2026 VLSI Symposium in Honolulu, Hawaii that its 18A-P process node has entered risk production. The node delivers 9% higher performance at iso-power versus Intel 18A, or 18% lower power consumption at equal performance, with improved thermal management and expanded design flexibility. This directly challenges TSMC’s N3P and N2 competitive position. Foundry credibility has been the core bear thesis on INTC; this data point materially weakens that argument.
📖 Why It’s Moving
Intel’s multi-year foundry rebuild story is finally producing hard technical evidence. The VLSI Symposium is where chip engineers go — this isn’t a marketing event, it’s peer-reviewed performance data. The 18A-P disclosure signals Intel is ahead of schedule and closing the gap with TSMC’s leading nodes. Combined with Q1 2026 results that already beat expectations, this removes a key overhang. Beta 3.06 means INTC amplifies NQ moves significantly — on a NQ-positive morning, INTC is the highest-leverage semiconductor name in the scanner.
📈 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: ~$116.50 (prior session VWAP). Expected opening range: $115.50–$119.50. Key MAs: 20-day ~$108, 50-day ~$95, 200-day ~$70 (all well below — significant momentum premium). ATR(14) = $9.62. Bias: LONG. Buy the opening range breakout above $119.50 on volume confirmation. Trail with 1×ATR = ~$9.62 stop. Target: $125–$128 daily extension.
🎯 Support & Resistance
Support: $114.50 (pre-market low area), $108 (20-day MA). Resistance: $121.56 (pre-market session high), $125 (round number / prior weekly high ~est.), $128.50 (ATR extension target).
📊 Wyckoff Phase
Markup phase — price accelerating above 200-day MA on expanding fundamental narrative (foundry credibility). No sign of distribution at current levels. Accumulation appears to have occurred in the $70–$90 range through Q1 2026.
Sources: Scanner data · Investing.com INTC premarket · Finviz.com “Why is Intel stock up today” · VLSI Symposium 2026 disclosure
Sector: Electronic Technology (PREFERRED) · Pre-mkt Vol: 371,991 (avg ~59M/day, 0.63× daily) · RVOL 5-min: 6.78× · ATR(14): $27.55 · Beta: 1.08 · Float: ~860M shares · Price range: ✓ ($278.67 < $500)
🔥 Catalyst
S&P 500 inclusion effective June 22, 2026 (five trading days away). Index funds and ETFs tracking the S&P 500 must buy MRVL shares in size by close on June 22 — this creates a mechanical, forced demand wave. Separately, GF Securities raised its price target to $350 from $230. AI infrastructure demand and custom silicon (ASIC) contracts remain the fundamental driver. YTD performance: +228%. CFO resignation (June 15) is a near-term volatility risk to monitor.
📖 Why It’s Moving
MRVL’s RVOL 5-min at 6.78× is the highest confirmed signal in today’s scanner — institutional desks are positioning ahead of the June 22 index inclusion deadline. The custom silicon (ASIC) theme for AI workloads (Google TPU supply chain, Amazon Trainium) makes MRVL a core holding for any AI infrastructure fund. On a NQ-positive FOMC day, high-beta semiconductor names with structural tailwinds attract the most volume. The $350 analyst target represents a 25%+ upside from current levels.
📈 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: ~$272.50 (prior session). Expected opening range: $275–$285. Key MAs: 20-day ~$245~est., 50-day ~$210~est. ATR(14) = $27.55. Bias: LONG. Opening range breakout above $285 targets $295–$300 intraday. Hard stop below $270 (2× ATR support zone from pre-market low). Note: reduce position before 1:30 PM ET on FOMC risk.
🎯 Support & Resistance
Support: $272 (pre-market consolidation), $255 (prior breakout base ~est.). Resistance: $285 (session target), $295 (round number), $305 (~1× ATR above resistance), $350 (analyst target — longer-term).
Sources: Scanner data · ts2.tech MRVL analysis · investor.marvell.com CFO announcement · GF Securities price target
Sector: Aerospace/Defense (PREFERRED – Space Tech) · Pre-mkt Vol: ~est. high · RVOL 5-min: ~est. elevated · ATR(14): ~est. $15–20 (recent IPO, high volatility) · Beta: ~est. 1.5+ (new IPO) · Prior Close: ~$209.10 · ATH: $225.64 (Jun 16)
🔥 Catalyst
SpaceX announced acquisition of Anysphere (AI coding tool “Cursor”) in an all-stock deal valued at ~$60 billion — the company’s first-ever acquisition. Gap down from ATH reflects initial market concern about stock dilution. However, Cursor is among the fastest-growing AI productivity tools globally, and this acquisition signals SpaceX’s ambition to become an AI platform company, not just a launch/satellite business. Context: SPCX IPO’d June 12 at $135, opened $150, closed $161 on Day 1 (+19%). Tuesday close ~$209 near ATH $225.
📖 Why It’s Moving
The -4.31% gap is a profit-taking flush after a 55%+ IPO gain in 5 days, triggered by all-stock deal dilution concerns. The bull case for reversal: (1) Cursor $60B price is cheap relative to SpaceX’s $2.6T market cap (2.3%); (2) AI coding tools are strategic infrastructure for SpaceX’s engineering operations; (3) SpaceX still has next targets — Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia — all above $4T. This is a NEUTRAL regime, NEUTRAL setup. Wait for the opening range to establish and watch for reclaim of $205 to confirm reversal. Do NOT chase below $195 — gap may fill toward $190.
📈 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: ~$202 (pre-market midpoint ~est.). Expected opening range: $196–$208. Key level: $205 — reclaim = long trigger. Below $196 = gap continuation toward $190 (IPO +40% level). ATR ~$15–20 est. Bias: NEUTRAL — wait for opening range resolution. Long above $205, short below $196.
🎯 Support & Resistance
Support: $196 (pre-market low), $190 (~est. prior consolidation), $161 (IPO Day 1 close). Resistance: $209 (prior close), $215 (~est.), $225.64 (ATH).
Sources: CNBC SpaceX IPO June 12 · stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx · Investing.com SPCX pre-market · CoinDesk SpaceX IPO · Reuters Morning Bid
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Rare Earth / Strategic Materials) · Pre-mkt Vol: 165,022 · RVOL 5-min: 4.05× · ATR(14): $2.37 · Beta: 1.35 · Float: ~222M shares~est. · Market Cap: ~$4.85B
🔥 Catalyst
U.S.-China rare earth supply chain tension remains elevated as the Iran deal shifts geopolitical attention. USAR is the primary domestic rare earth mining and processing company — its Round Top project in Texas represents the U.S. government’s strategic answer to Chinese rare earth dominance (China controls ~85% of global rare earth processing). Any supply chain disruption narrative, AI infrastructure demand for magnets, or EV battery stories lift USAR directly. The INTC 18A-P foundry story is also indirectly bullish — Intel 18A needs specialized materials.
📖 Why It’s Moving
USAR benefits from the same AI/semiconductor manufacturing buildout that’s driving INTC and MRVL — rare earth elements are embedded in every chip package, EV motor, and defense system. Beta 1.35 is solid without being excessive. RVOL 4.05× confirms genuine pre-market interest. Note: ATR of $2.37 is below the $5 absolute preferred threshold, making USAR a smaller-range, tighter setup. Use smaller position sizing accordingly.
📈 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: ~$21.30 (prior session estimate). Expected opening range: $21.00–$22.50. ATR(14) = $2.37. Key MA: 20-day ~$19.50~est. Bias: LONG. Opening range breakout above $22.50 targets $23.50–$24.00 (1×ATR extension). Hard stop: $20.50 (below opening range low, −$1 risk per share — sized accordingly).
🎯 Support & Resistance
Support: $21.00 (round number / pre-market low), $19.50 (20-day MA ~est.). Resistance: $22.50 (session target), $24.00 (1×ATR extension), $26.00 (~est. prior swing high).
Sources: Scanner data · USA Rare Earth investor relations · US-China supply chain narrative (Reuters)
Sector: Electronic Technology (PREFERRED) · Pre-mkt Vol: 132,281 (avg ~13.1M/day) · RVOL 5-min: 3.04× (below 4× threshold — note sizing) · ATR(14): $24.56 · Beta: 1.96 · Float: ~80M shares~est. · Market Cap: ~$13.7B · Prior day: −10.83%
🔥 Catalyst
Applied Optoelectronics manufactures fiber optic transceivers and optical networking components that are the backbone of hyperscaler AI data center buildouts. AAOI sold off hard yesterday (−10.83%) — likely on sector rotation or earnings-related concern — and is bouncing +3.57% pre-market today. The Intel 18A-P foundry disclosure at the VLSI Symposium (INTC +3.3%) validates AI infrastructure capex; any read-through to data center optical interconnect demand is a direct AAOI tailwind. ATR of $24.56 provides excellent intraday range for a breakout setup.
📖 Why It’s Moving
The AI infrastructure spending cycle requires massive upgrades to optical interconnects inside and between data centers — 400G and 800G transceivers are AAOI’s core product. After yesterday’s −10.83% flush, today’s pre-market bounce reflects dip-buying in the AI optical theme. The Intel foundry news amplifies AI capex enthusiasm broadly. Beta 1.96 makes AAOI the highest-beta name in today’s Top 5 — it will amplify NQ moves in both directions. RVOL 5-min at 3.04× is below the 4× preferred threshold; wait for opening confirmation before sizing up.
📈 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: ~$165.00~est. (prior session post-selloff). Expected opening range: $168.00–$175.00. ATR(14) = $24.56. Bias: LONG. Opening range breakout above $175 targets $180–$185 (0.5×ATR extension). Hard stop: $165.00 (below OR low, ~$6 risk). Be aware: yesterday’s large gap down created an unfilled overhead gap — $185+ area may face residual supply.
🎯 Support & Resistance
Support: $168.00 (pre-market low area), $162.00 (prior close ~est. post-selloff). Resistance: $175.00 (opening range target), $180.00 (round number), $185.00 (gap fill zone from yesterday’s drop). Note: large prior-day move creates choppy intraday levels — use ATR-based stops.
📊 Wyckoff Phase
Potential spring/shakeout after yesterday’s sell-off — aggressive move down followed by immediate recovery is a classic Wyckoff spring in an uptrend. Confirm with opening range volume above 300K in first 15 minutes before committing full size.
Sources: Updated scanner (08:34 ET) · Applied Optoelectronics investor relations · AI data center optical transceiver theme · Intel VLSI Symposium catalyst
Research Themes
⚡ FOMC Volatility Playbook
Warsh’s first FOMC meeting creates a binary volatility event at 2 PM ET. The morning is your window: trade NQ-correlated growth names (semis, AI) aggressively in the opening 90 minutes on any momentum setup. Exit all intraday positions by 1:30 PM and re-assess after Warsh’s press conference closes around 3:15 PM. If Warsh eliminates the rate cut from the dot plot or signals hike openness, expect NQ to dump and XLF/value names to outperform. If dovish, NQ extension toward 30,975 CHoCH is the target. XLF already trading +1.47% = market betting on steady-state, Dow-friendly hold scenario.
INTC
MRVL
XLF
HOOD
SOFI
Sources: Reuters Morning Bid, TechTimes Fed analysis, CBS News FOMC guide, intellectia.ai
🚀 SpaceX Ecosystem Day
SpaceX has crossed into rare air: a company valued above Amazon ($2.646T) that is aggressively acquiring AI capabilities (Cursor/$60B). SPCX is the direct equity, but the gap-down creates uncertainty — watch for a reversal above $205 to confirm the bull is back. For traders who want the SpaceX upside without the IPO turbulence, ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) is the highest-momentum SpaceX-adjacent name at +5.29% pre-market (note Beta 0.82 is below our filter). RKLB (Rocket Lab) is the cleaner Beta play on space ecosystem days. The Cursor acquisition signals SpaceX wants to be an AI company — this theme has long legs.
SPCX
ASTS
RKLB
LUNR
PL
Sources: CNBC SpaceX IPO June 12, Stocktwits SPCX headlines, Reuters Morning Bid SpaceX market cap milestone
🔵 Intel Foundry Renaissance
INTC’s 18A-P node in risk production is the most significant technical data point for the semiconductor supply chain in months. If Intel can credibly compete with TSMC on advanced nodes, the global chip landscape changes — defense tech, hyperscalers, and government chip programs now have a domestic alternative. Beyond INTC, look at semiconductor inspection and test equipment (ONTO, AEHR) which benefit from any new process node ramp, and advanced packaging plays (AMKR, KLIC) that service Intel’s packaging requirements. Beta 3.06 on INTC means this is a high-amplification NQ play — handle it accordingly.
INTC
ONTO
AEHR
AMKR
KLIC
Sources: Finviz.com INTC news, Investing.com “Why is Intel stock surging today”, VLSI Symposium 2026, Barchart Intel Q1 preview
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|
| ASTS |
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. |
$82.25 |
+5.28% |
663,265 · RVOL 4.70× |
⚠ Beta 0.82 disqualifies Top 5. SpaceX fever day — ASTS is the highest-gap name in the scanner. SpaceMobile’s direct-to-device satellite broadband makes it a SpaceX-adjacent story. Watch for RVOL expansion at open. ATR $10.90 gives excellent range. If SPCX reversal fails, ASTS is the SpaceX theme vehicle by default. Beta filter still applies — smaller position. |
| FIG |
Figma Inc. |
$17.98 |
+3.73% |
555,721 · RVOL 5.70× |
⚠ Beta 0.90 disqualifies Top 5. Figma is a recent IPO (high-growth design SaaS). RVOL 5.70× is the second-highest in today’s scanner. ATR $1.51 is low — tight range. With Beta potentially unreliable (new IPO), this could surprise intraday. Watch for a move above $18.50 as a breakout trigger. Thematically aligned with AI design tooling (SpaceX Cursor theme). |
| AXTI |
AXT Inc. |
$96.69 |
+0.19% |
2.85K (5-min) · VWAP Breakout ×2 |
Per calibration: AXTI valid on InP shortage/foundry days. 5-min chart confirms CHoCH (Change of Character, bullish structural shift) and two consecutive VWAP breakout signals (green arrows at ~$96.00 and ~$96.10). Price at $96.69 approaching the Equilibrium zone at $96.80–$97.15 (session high). EQH on the left broken to upside. BOS confirmed. Thematic: AXT makes InP, GaAs, and Ge compound semiconductor substrates — direct input into Intel 18A-P process node and III-V chip manufacturing. INTC foundry news is a direct AXTI catalyst. Watch for continuation above $97.15 session high. |
| AMD |
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. |
$521.62 |
+0.25% |
4.68K (5-min) · Below VWAP |
⚠ Price $521.62 exceeds $500 hard limit — included per today’s explicit request; size accordingly. 5-min chart: AMD sold from session high $526.49 (premium zone) down to $517.50 low, now recovering at $521.62. White VWAP (~$522) is declining and price is below it — “Short Lifeline” indicator still active near $520.50. BOS noted from earlier session. Upper TrendLine Break label visible. Volume profile shows price is in the high-density node (521–522) = contested zone. Bias: NEUTRAL/cautious. Long only on reclaim of $522 VWAP with volume; below $519 is short territory. Watch NQ direction for AMD signal. |
| KMX |
CarMax, Inc. |
$52.11 |
−2.11% |
183,209 · RVOL 4.05× |
SHORT setup — moved from Top 5. Q1 FY2026 earnings miss: EPS $1.31 vs. $1.38 prior year, ~39% below consensus; revenue $8.0B missed estimates by 6.1%. Double miss on a high-borrowing-cost consumer = selling pressure. ATR $2.04 makes this a tighter range setup — size for $1–2 risk per share. Breakdown below $51.00 opening range low targets $49.00–$48.00. Cover hard if Warsh turns dovish at 2 PM. Sector: Retail Trade (DEPRIORITIZED) — catalyst-only short play. |
Session Playbook — FOMC Day
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales Print
First major data point. Hot read (+0.5%+) = hawkish lean → sell NQ premium, favor INTC/MRVL quick scalps only. Soft read (+0.1% or below) = FOMC cover → morning window opens wide for longs.
9:30–10:30 AM ET
Opening Range Window
Primary trade window. INTC and MRVL opening range breakouts above scanner highs. SPCX — wait for $205 reclaim before long. KMX — short on breakdown below $51. Size: 60–70% of max position.
10:30–11:30 AM ET
Extension / Trend Phase
If INTC above $119.50 and MRVL above $285 with NQ holding +0.3%+, hold core positions and add on dips. ASTS watch: if RVOL holds 4×+, can add as a speculative add in SpaceX theme.
11:30 AM – 1:00 PM ET
Tighten Stops
Begin reducing position size to 50% of max. Tighten trailing stops to 0.5×ATR. No new entries after 12:00 PM ET. Lock in realized gains. FOMC window approaching — risk/reward deteriorates.
1:00–1:30 PM ET
Flatten Before FOMC
MANDATORY EXIT. Close all intraday positions by 1:30 PM ET. FOMC binary event at 2:00 PM can gap markets 1–2% in seconds. No overnight holds either. Cash is a position today.
2:00–3:30 PM ET
Post-FOMC Reset
Let price action develop for 15–20 min after 2 PM statement. If Warsh dovish → NQ extension, re-enter INTC/MRVL on pullback. If hawkish → KMX short extension, add SPCX short below $196. Watch volume profile for direction confirmation.
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / What to Watch |
|---|
| Wed Jun 18 |
FOMC Follow-Through + Jobless Claims (moved to Wed)
Post-Warsh press conference sentiment sets the tone. Weekly Jobless Claims released one day early (Juneteenth holiday). Housing Starts data also due. Expect elevated NQ volatility as markets digest yesterday’s dot plot changes. MRVL index inclusion buying begins building as June 22 approaches. |
| Thu Jun 19 |
🏖 JUNETEENTH — US Markets Closed
Federal holiday. NYSE and NASDAQ closed. Futures may still trade overnight. Good day to review positions, read research, and plan the June 20 open. Crypto markets remain open — MSTR, MARA, RIOT may see elevated weekend-style volume. |
| Fri Jun 20 |
Post-Holiday Open + Fed Speaker Schedule
First trading day after Juneteenth. Potential FOMC follow-through or reversal depending on overnight sentiment. Look for Fed regional president speeches clarifying Warsh’s dot plot language. S&P 500 index rebalancing activity may elevate volume in MRVL and other upcoming additions. |
| Mon Jun 22 |
⭐ MRVL S&P 500 Inclusion Effective Date
Marvell Technology joins the S&P 500 index before the open. All S&P 500 index funds and ETFs must own MRVL by this date — creating forced institutional buying. This is a multi-day positioning event; price action around June 22 open will be critical. Watch for “sell the news” reaction after inclusion. |
| Week of Jun 22 |
PCE Inflation Data + Fed Speaker Tour
May PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) expected late in the week — a hot print validates Warsh’s hike signal; a cool print gives rate-cut hopes life. Multiple Fed regional presidents expected to speak following the FOMC meeting to “clarify” Warsh’s guidance. SPCX IPO lockup mechanics and early shareholder behavior will begin to matter. |
Overnight Intelligence
🌐 US Futures Overnight
S&P 500 E-mini: 7,586.25 (−0.01%). Nasdaq 100 E-mini: 30,418.25 (+0.34%). Dow Jones E-mini: 52,436 (−0.06%). Russell 2000 E-mini: 2,965.5 (+0.04%). Mixed overnight tone — NQ carrying the complex on AI/semi names. Dow had its 2nd straight record close Tuesday, now consolidating. Overnight range was compressed ahead of FOMC. Volumes below average pre-bell.
🌏 Asia Overnight
Asian markets were generally steady as traders awaited the Warsh FOMC outcome. Japan (Nikkei) benefited from yen stability; Korea’s KOSPI saw semiconductor-related buying in SK Hynix and Samsung on the INTC 18A-P news (competitive angle). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was muted. China remained focused on domestic stimulus and rare earth export controls (supportive of USAR thesis).
🌍 Europe Overnight
UK CPI for May printed at 2.8% — steady, in line with the prior month. This gives the Bank of England justification to hold rates at Thursday’s meeting. European equities were generally positive; energy names underperformed on Iran sanctions-lift speculation and lower Brent (~$79). G7 summit in France is the macro backdrop; leaders are expected to discuss Iran and global growth but avoid public conflict with Washington.
🛢 Commodities & Rates
WTI Crude: ~$79.20/barrel (falling — Iran deal framework with potential sanctions lift). Brent: ~$79.00/barrel (dipped below $80 for first time in months Tuesday). Gold: ~$3,280~est. (neutral). 10Y Treasury yield: ~4.28% (falling as oil slides and bond buyers return ahead of FOMC). Bond markets pricing in Fed hold — yield curve modestly flattening. DXY: ~104.1~est.
💎 Crypto & Bitcoin Proxies
Bitcoin was rallying toward $66,000 on June 15 following initial Iran deal reports (risk-on signal). MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, HOOD all gained 4–6% on June 15. Pre-market June 17 — specific BTC price unavailable but risk-on FOMC hold thesis supports crypto. FOMC uncertainty may cap upside; watch BTC for direction. Iran deal resolution = risk-on = BTC positive medium-term.
🚀 SpaceX & Key Overnight Catalyst
SpaceX surpassed Amazon’s market cap ($2.646T) Tuesday, briefly eclipsing Microsoft ($2.92T). SPCX closed +5% near its IPO-week all-time high of $225.64. Overnight, SpaceX announced the $60B Cursor (Anysphere) all-stock acquisition — its first M&A ever. The news hit after hours; SPCX is gapping down ~4.3% in pre-market to ~$200.80 on dilution concerns. The AI coding acquisition signals strategic ambition well beyond rockets and satellites.
