TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
BEARISH
Technology leads losses as AVGO earnings guidance disappointment triggers broad chip sector selloff; defensives and financials holding firm on Iran ceasefire progress.
- Futures (S&P −0.4%, Nasdaq −1.1%): −8 pts (bearish futures)
- VIX 16.27 (15–20 range): 0 pts
- Newsletter tone (bearish — AVGO contagion, war concerns): −5 pts
- CNN Fear & Greed: 54 Neutral: +5 pts
- Sector breadth (tech heavy selling, defensives holding): −5 pts
The market opens Thursday under meaningful pressure after Broadcom (AVGO) reported fiscal Q2 results Tuesday evening that cleared headline revenue expectations ($22.19B vs $22.27B consensus) but failed to satisfy the Street’s increasingly elevated AI growth bar. AI semiconductor revenue reached a record $10.8B (+143% YoY), yet forward Q3 AI guidance of $16B landed below the most aggressive buy-side models. The result: AVGO plunged ~14% in after-hours, igniting a sympathy wave across the entire semiconductor and AI infrastructure complex. Marvell (MRVL), Super Micro (SMCI), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Intel (INTC) all opened in deep red as traders repriced AI capex expectations.
The macro backdrop offers a partial offset. The Lebanon ceasefire announced Wednesday raised tangible hopes for a US-Iran deal, prompting Iran’s foreign minister to confirm the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all shipping. WTI crude has since retreated to ~$95/bbl from April’s $117 peak, easing energy cost headwinds for data centers and miners. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.49% on resilient labor data (ADP: +122K private jobs in May), keeping the Fed on hold but not triggering a bond rout. Non-Farm Payrolls are due tomorrow — a hot print could amplify today’s tech pressure.
Against this backdrop, counter-regime AI software names show notable relative strength: Palantir (PLTR) holds a +2.7% pre-market gain on a new enterprise AI contract with Kirkland & Ellis, and ServiceNow (NOW) trades up +3.4% after a fresh Buy rating and raised FY26 revenue guidance to $15.7B (+21% YoY). The divergence between AI chip hardware (under pressure on over-elevated guidance expectations) and AI software/platform names (holding on real deal flow) is the day’s defining theme. Regime is BEARISH — filter short setups first, but respect the 2–3 long counter-regime setups with hard catalysts.
The regime reads BEARISH this morning. S&P 500 futures are off −0.4%, Nasdaq 100 futures are down −1.1%, and the Dow is bucking the trend at +0.4% as investors rotate out of mega-cap tech. The primary driver is Broadcom’s guidance miss post-earnings, which has triggered a chain reaction across AI chip names. Filtering short setups first today, while preserving 2–3 long slots in the Top 5 for counter-regime plays with hard catalysts (PLTR, NOW). VIX at 16.27 signals elevated but not panicked volatility — intraday swings will be wide, especially on MRVL (ATR $18.82) and SMCI.
| Time ET | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | 225K | 219K | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM | Continuing Claims | 1,870K | 1,865K | MED |
| 10:00 AM | ISM Services PMI (May) | 51.2 | 51.6 | HIGH |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders (Apr) | +0.4% | −0.8% | MED |
| 1:00 PM | Fed Speaker: Williams (NY Fed) | — | — | MED |
Watch for: Comparable store sales trends and North America vs. international revenue split. Consumer discretionary sentiment is fragile — any guidance cut will pressure XLY. A beat on international could provide a surprise relief rally. Lululemon reports after market close today.
Watch for: Data center networking demand commentary — Ciena is a direct read-through for AI infrastructure build-out. Strong optical networking backlog data would be incrementally positive for AAOI and GLW, both of which are already weak pre-market.
Watch for: Contact lens segment performance and pricing power. Defensive medical device name with limited market-moving potential in today’s tape.
Broadcom reported after close Wednesday. AI revenue hit a record $10.8B (+143% YoY) but Q3 guidance of $16B disappointed the highest buy-side estimates. Expect continued repricing across AI chip names through the session. Watch for analyst notes hitting mid-morning that could amplify or bottom the move.
SpaceX IPO is targeted for June 12. Space-adjacent names (RDW, ASTS, RKLB, LUNR) remain in focus. RDW is gapping up +2.3% on continuing SpaceX IPO mania despite a Jefferies downgrade June 1. Watch for institutional positioning ahead of the blockbuster event.
The Lebanon ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening are oil price negative (WTI $95, down from $117 in April). This benefits energy-intensive sectors (crypto miners, data centers) but undercuts energy stocks. Monitor oil reaction into close for next-day setup implications.
NFP due Friday. Today’s Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) and ISM Services (10:00 AM) will set the tone. A hot labor print tomorrow could trigger further rate selloff and add to tech pressure.
AVGO sympathy selling — Broadcom’s Q3 AI guidance of $16B disappointed elevated buy-side models despite record Q2 AI revenue of $10.8B (+143% YoY). MRVL, which reported its own strong Q1 results (record $2.42B revenue, +28% YoY) on May 27, is now being dragged lower as institutional desks cut broad AI semiconductor exposure. The stock is trading at $301.65, off ~$23 from Wednesday’s close.
MRVL is the highest-quality proxy in the custom AI chip space (custom ASIC for hyperscalers: Amazon, Google, Microsoft). When AVGO’s guidance disappointed, traders immediately repriced all AI chip suppliers. MRVL’s high beta (1.79) amplifies the move. This is institutional forced selling, not a fundamental deterioration of MRVL’s own business.
Pre-market: $301.65. Watch for a dead-cat bounce to the $308–$312 zone (prior support now resistance) — that’s the ideal short entry on rejection. Opening range likely $295–$315 given the $18.82 ATR. 20-day MA: ~$318 (~est.). 50-day MA: ~$290 (~est.). Bias: SHORT below $308. Cover target $285–$290.
Support: $290 (50-day MA est.), $280 (prior base). Resistance: $308–$312 (broken support flipped resistance), $318 (20-day MA).
Distribution — high-volume rejection at all-time high zone following AVGO catalyst; phase consistent with markdown initiation.
SMCI fell after Gorilla Technology (GRRR) disclosed a $2B AI infrastructure supply agreement for India’s Yotta Data Services project — covering 20,736 B300 cards and 5,120 B200 cards. While strategically positive, markets are selling: dilution fears dominate as the $2B commitment dwarfs GRRR’s $602M market cap, making equity raises nearly unavoidable. The move compounds AVGO-driven AI infrastructure skepticism, with SMCI sinking ~9% Wednesday and extending losses pre-market.
SMCI had rallied aggressively into this week (up multi-day) on AI server demand euphoria. The GRRR deal, while potentially massive for SMCI revenues, arrived at a moment of peak AI guidance skepticism post-AVGO. Profit-taking from recent longs is meeting new short interest. RVOL at 6.3× (5-min) is the highest on today’s scanner — conviction is high.
Pre-market $47.42. Watch for opening range $44–$50. Ideal short: rejection at $49–$50 (prior support). 20-day MA: ~$50 (~est.). 50-day MA: ~$42 (~est.). ATR $3.00 means $3 intraday swings are normal. Bias: SHORT below $49. First target $44, then $42.
Support: $44 (recent gap fill), $42 (50-day MA est.). Resistance: $49–$50 (prior support flipped), $52 (this week’s high area).
IREN is selling off in sympathy with broader AI infrastructure pressure (AVGO contagion) combined with Bitcoin price softness. The crypto miner / AI data center hybrid model makes IREN doubly exposed: chip capex costs rise as AI guidance disappoints, and BTC mining margins compress on any BTC price weakness. Bernstein had previously named IREN a top pick with a $75 PT — today’s print tests that thesis.
At Beta 3.77, IREN is one of the highest-beta names on the scanner. In a BEARISH regime day triggered by AI chip disappointment, high-beta AI/crypto hybrids get hit hardest. The stock had been a standout performer (up ~357% in 2025) and is now experiencing institutional profit-taking. The 936K pre-market volume at 3.7× RVOL confirms serious selling pressure, not retail noise.
Pre-market $65.48. Opening range likely $62–$69 (ATR $5.14). Ideal short: rejection at $67–$68 (VWAP area). 20-day MA: ~$69 (~est.). 50-day MA: ~$58 (~est.). Bias: SHORT below $67. Target $60–$58.
Support: $62 (pre-market low), $58 (50-day MA est.). Resistance: $67–$68 (pre-market VWAP anchor), $72 (prior breakout level).
Palantir secured a major AI enterprise contract with Kirkland & Ellis — one of the world’s largest law firms — for legal AI workflow automation. This hard catalyst adds to PLTR’s Q1 momentum (+85% YoY revenue, raised FY26 guidance). PLTR is bucking the broad tech selloff because its contract-driven revenue model is insulated from chip hardware capex cycles. Software beats silicon today.
PLTR represents the cleanest counter-regime play: while AI chip hardware disappoints on “good but not great” guidance, AI software platform companies with hard enterprise deals are proving the demand is real and converting. Institutional longs are rotating from semi to AI software. The 570K pre-market volume at 3.0× RVOL confirms active buying, not passive drift.
Pre-market $142.20. Opening range likely $138–$146 (ATR $7.25). Bias: LONG above $141 (pre-market low). Look for opening drive above $143 with market stabilization. First target $148, then $152 (this week’s high). 20-day MA: ~$138 (~est.). Stop: below $139.
Support: $139 (pre-market low / 20-day MA est.), $135 (prior consolidation base). Resistance: $146 (pre-market high), $152 (recent weekly high), $155 (all-time breakout zone).
ServiceNow received a new Buy rating on June 1 with raised FY26 revenue guidance to $15.7B (+21% YoY), driven by accelerating adoption of Now Assist AI products. Despite Q1 EPS missing estimates by 14%, top-line growth and AI product momentum support the bull case. At +3.37% with 942K pre-market volume (highest gap-up volume on the scanner at 4.0× RVOL), NOW is showing institutional conviction buying, not retail momentum.
In a day where the AI chip complex is being repriced lower, AI software workflow companies with sticky enterprise contracts and real revenue growth are acting as a safe harbor. NOW’s subscription model provides revenue visibility that chip hardware guidance cannot match. The 942K pre-market volume is the single largest gap-up volume print on today’s scanner — smart money is stepping in.
Pre-market $117.90. Prior close ~$113.99 (day’s range June 4: $112.97–$129.69 per session data). Opening range likely $114–$122 (ATR $7.72). Bias: LONG above $116.50. First target $124, then $128. 20-day MA: ~$114 (~est.). Stop: below $113.
Support: $114 (20-day MA area), $113 (pre-market low / prior close). Resistance: $122 (intraday resistance), $129 (day’s high seen in session data).
Broadcom’s Q2 results were operationally strong (AI revenue +143% YoY to $10.8B) but the Q3 AI guidance of $16B landed below the most aggressive buy-side models, triggering a sector-wide reset of AI chip multiples. The market is re-learning that “good isn’t good enough” at current valuations — AVGO trades at 35× forward earnings. Sympathy selling hits every name with AI silicon exposure regardless of their individual fundamentals. Watch for analyst downgrades and price target cuts mid-morning to amplify the move.
While hardware guidance disappoints, AI software platform companies with hard enterprise contracts are demonstrating that AI demand is converting into real revenue — and that the value accrues to the application layer, not just the silicon. Palantir’s Kirkland & Ellis deal and ServiceNow’s raised FY guidance show that enterprise software is now the cleanest AI compounder. This is a rotation, not a retreat from AI.
Bitcoin miners face a dual headwind today: BTC price softness reduces mining revenue per hash, while AVGO’s AI guidance miss raises concern about future GPU and ASIC procurement costs. High-beta names like IREN (Beta 3.77), CIFR (Beta 4.02), and CLSK (Beta 3.99) amplify both vectors. WULF and MARA are also in the complex. The Bernstein $75 IREN PT provides a longer-term anchor, but today’s tape is short-focused.
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Intel Corp | $112.71 | −3.97% | 1,826k | Largest absolute pre-mkt vol (1.83M). Sympathy selling on AVGO. RVOL 3.8×, ATR $8.25. Short bias on any dead-cat to $116. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | $251.68 | −4.64% | 305k | Premium AI cloud infrastructure (GPU-as-a-service). RVOL 4.7×. Caught in AI capex repricing. Watch $245 support. |
| CIFR | Cipher Digital | $26.24 | −4.88% | 195k | Crypto miner. RVOL 4.1×, Beta 4.02. Double exposure: BTC softness + AVGO chip cost fears. Pair with IREN thesis. |
| RDW | Redwire Corp | $18.62 | +2.26% | 1,369k | Space tech gap-up. RVOL 4.8×. SpaceX IPO (June 12) euphoria continues despite Jefferies downgrade June 1. Counter-regime long. |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing | $24.10 | −3.88% | 859k | Quantum compute. RVOL 3.5×, Beta 3.59. NOTE: Quantum names prone to violent reversals (see IONQ May 11 post-mortem). Short only with sustained RVOL ≥3× and no near-term catalysts. |
Regime confirmed BEARISH. Monitor MRVL and SMCI for dead-cat bounce setup. Watch PLTR and NOW for continued pre-market strength vs. broad tape weakness — relative strength divergence is your conviction signal. Do not chase gap-downs into the open blind.
Wide opening ranges expected — ATR on MRVL is $18.82. Let first 5-minute candle complete before entering. SMCI RVOL 6.3× suggests opening volatility. For PLTR and NOW longs: look for green open above pre-market price — do not buy into a red open.
Best short window for MRVL and SMCI on any dead-cat bounce to VWAP. Watch for analyst notes (downgrades, PT cuts) hitting pre-10:30 AM that confirm the thesis. ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM ET — a weak print (below 50) would amplify bearish momentum across the tape.
IREN continuation short if BTC stays weak. CIFR pairing opportunity. PLTR and NOW: assess if they’re holding gains or fading — if they fade, cut. If they’re holding +2% while the market is −1%, add on first pullback to VWAP.
Quantum names as shorts (RGTI, IONQ, QBTS) — violent reversal risk. Do not short RGTI after first 30 minutes unless it’s still below the open. No chasing gap-downs beyond −10% at open.
Watch LULU after-close earnings for tomorrow’s consumer discretionary read. Flatten positions ahead of tomorrow’s NFP (8:30 AM ET) — do not hold overnight into a binary data event.
Reuters Daily Briefing (June 4): Lebanon ceasefire announcement raises hopes for a US-Iran nuclear deal. Iran’s FM confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains open. This has knocked ~$20 off oil since April’s $117/bbl peak. Geopolitical tail-risk is easing — a positive macro backdrop that is being overshadowed by AVGO’s earnings reaction.
Broadcom fell ~14% after reporting Q2 FY2026. AI semiconductor revenue was a record $10.8B (+143% YoY), total revenue $22.19B vs $22.27B expected. The miss: Q3 AI guidance of $16B fell below the most aggressive buy-side models. CrowdStrike (CRWD) also fell 11% on billings guidance disappointment. The combination set up today as a tech-heavy selloff day.
WTI: $95.17 (−0.89%). Brent: $96.70 (−1.13%). Gold: $4,467 (−1.17%). UAE formally exited OPEC+ — adding downside pressure to oil. Energy complex is mixed: lower oil helps data center and crypto miner operating costs, but energy stocks (XLE) are under modest pressure.
Asian equity markets tracked the AVGO-led tech selloff overnight. Semiconductor names in Tokyo and Seoul (TSMC, Samsung supply chain) declined 1–3%. The Strait of Hormuz reopening news briefly lifted risk appetite mid-session but tech sector pressure dominated. Nikkei closed lower; Hang Seng mixed.
European markets opened cautiously lower, led by tech sector weakness. German DAX and French CAC both off ~0.4–0.6%. European defense names firmed on Iran ceasefire progress. Bond markets: German Bund yields steady, UK Gilt yields slightly lower.
10Y yield at 4.49%, up 4 bps on resilient labor data. ADP showed +122K private jobs in May. Markets pricing 2 Fed rate cuts in 2026 (September and December). Fed’s Williams (NY Fed) speaks at 1:00 PM ET today — watch for any forward guidance signals. NFP tomorrow morning — consensus 185K, prior 177K.
Bitcoin softness is adding second-order pressure to IREN, CIFR, CLSK, WULF. No specific BTC catalyst — miners are being sold on AI chip capex concern narrative. The Bernstein $75 IREN target and JPMorgan mining coverage remain bullish long-term but today’s tape is risk-off for the complex.
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Fri Jun 5 | Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) Consensus 185K, prior 177K. Hot print = more Fed-on-hold pressure; weak print = rally in rates-sensitive growth. |
| Fri Jun 5 | Lululemon (LULU) Earnings Reaction Reported after close Thu Jun 4; gap implications for XLY and consumer discretionary. |
| Mon Jun 9 | AVGO Post-Earnings Analyst Reprice Week Expect a wave of analyst PT revisions and downgrades Monday morning; MRVL and SMCI secondary reactions. |
| Tue Jun 10 | CPI Inflation Data (May) Key Fed policy input; consensus ~2.8% YoY. Market-moving event across rates, gold, and growth. |
| Wed Jun 11 | Fed Beige Book Release Anecdotal economic conditions across 12 districts; inflation and labor market tone will set Thursday/Friday direction. |
| Thu Jun 12 | SpaceX IPO — Target Date Anticipated ~$2T valuation; expect space-adjacent names (RDW, ASTS, RKLB, LUNR) to gap on event day. |
| Thu Jun 12 | PPI (May) Producer price inflation; pairs with CPI for comprehensive inflation read ahead of June Fed meeting. |