TRDX Daily US Market BriefingBULLISH
updated 7:46 AM ET · 4:46 AM PT
Sector Heatmap
Breadth is broadly positive — 10 of 11 sectors green, led by Basic Materials and Technology, with only Energy lagging as crude gives back part of its recent spike. That mix favors growth/cyclical breakout setups over defensives heading into the Fed decision.
Market Bias
0–30 Extreme Fear · 31–45 Fear · 46–55 Neutral · 56–70 Greed · 71–100 Extreme Greed
- Futures (+8): ES1! +0.32% pre-market — modestly bullish, not enough to be decisive on its own.
- VIX (0): 16.81, down 2.21% but still inside the 15–20 “normal” band.
- Newsletter tone (−4): Yahoo Finance leads with “Get ready for a Fed hike — and market turbulence”; CNBC Pro flags a Wells Fargo warning on a possible sharp decline. Cautious ahead of the decision.
- Stocktwits (−2): Chart Art recap notes Tuesday’s session fell as oil and yields climbed into the Fed — residual caution carrying into today.
- CNN Fear & Greed (−6): Reading of 30 (“Fear”) as of yesterday’s close.
Sources: Yahoo Finance Morning Brief, CNBC Pro Stocks at Night, Stocktwits Chart Art, CNN Fear & Greed Index.
Overall Economic Summary
All eyes are on the Eccles Building today. The Fed is broadly expected to deliver a 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00% at 2:00 PM ET — an unusual hike (not a cut) forced by inflation running hot on the back of the Iran-conflict energy shock. Drone strikes on Russian refineries and the Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed US diesel above $6/gallon last week for the first time ever, and diesel stocks are projected to fall to a two-decade low this month. That’s the macro tension in one sentence: energy-driven inflation forcing the Fed’s hand even as growth data stays soft. Chair Kevin Warsh may try to soften the blow with dovish forward guidance, but Bloomberg’s John Authers notes that risks pushing long-end yields even higher if the market reads it as “less tightening to fight inflation,” not more.
Sector-wise, that setup keeps the trade squarely in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and power/data-center names — the businesses most insulated from a slow-growth, high-rate world because their demand is capex-driven, not consumer-driven. OpenAI is reportedly in talks for a funding round above a $1.2 trillion valuation, and the “picks-and-shovels” side of the AI buildout (server rail kits, chip substrates, even fuel cells for data-center power) continues to mint new winners. Energy stays the one sector lagging as WTI pulls back over 2% from its recent highs, giving equities some near-term breathing room on input costs.
Key risk events beyond the Fed: the 10-year yield sits at 4.97%, its highest levels since 2007, and any hawkish surprise in the dot plot could accelerate that move. Watch also the ongoing US naval posture near Iran (costing roughly $32.5M/day) and the diesel/heating-oil price shock, which is becoming a genuine midterm-election issue in swing farm states — a slow-burn macro risk that could resurface in headlines at any time.
Market Sentiment
Regime call: BULLISH — S&P futures +0.32%, Nasdaq futures +0.56%, Dow futures +0.28% as of this morning’s scan, all comfortably above the +0.25% long-setup threshold. Filtering long setups first today. That said, this is a fragile bullish tape sitting directly in front of a Fed decision — expect chop and a real possibility of a regime flip intraday once the statement and dot plot hit the tape at 2:00 PM ET.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 AM | MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly) | — | ~est. | LOW |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC Interest Rate Decision | +25bp → 3.75%–4.00% | 3.50%–3.75% | HIGH |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC Summary of Economic Projections / Dot Plot | — | — | HIGH |
| 2:30 PM | Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference | — | — | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
Homebuilder earnings reporting after the close, and the bar is low: consensus implies a roughly 35–40% YoY EPS decline as high mortgage rates and a softening housing market bite. With the 10-year at 4.97% and a Fed hike possible today, this is more a read on rate-sensitive housing/cyclical value than on our growth watchlist — deprioritized sector, but worth watching for a read-through to XLY/homebuilder sentiment into tomorrow’s open.
Key Events Today
The single biggest catalyst of the week. A 25bp hike is priced in; the real market-mover is the dot plot and Warsh’s tone on the path ahead. Expect a volatility expansion in the final 90 minutes of the session.
The US blockade is costing roughly $32.5M/day; Saudi Arabia is rerouting spot crude sales after an East-West pipeline shutdown. Any escalation headline can move WTI/Brent and energy-adjacent names fast, even as crude sits lower this morning.
Diesel prices topped $6/gallon for the first time ever last week; stocks are projected to hit a two-decade low this month. A slow-burn inflation and midterm-election storyline worth tracking for its Fed-policy implications.
Top 5 Movers
Leading the Finviz pre-market sector-gainer scan at +3.7–3.9%; Bloom Energy continues to ride the AI-data-center power-demand narrative as utilities struggle to keep pace with hyperscaler electricity needs.
With the diesel/energy-cost crunch dominating today’s macro headlines and grid strain a persistent AI-capex bottleneck, on-site fuel-cell power names are getting a bid as a hedge against traditional energy volatility. Highest relative volume (5m) of any name on today’s scan.
VWAP anchor ~$259.00 · Expected opening range $250–$268 · ATR(14) $19.18 — bias is long above VWAP for a trend day.
Support: $250 (pre-market range low), $240 (prior consolidation). Resistance: $268 (0.5 ATR extension), $278 (0.75 ATR / prior swing).
Broad semiconductor strength this morning with Intel one of the largest-dollar-volume gappers on the tape; part of a sector-wide bid alongside AMD, MU and MRVL as chip names rally into the Fed decision.
Foundry/AI-capacity optimism continues to build after a string of positive analyst calls this week (Tuesday’s CNBC Pro roundup flagged fresh Nvidia/AMD analyst commentary); Intel is trading as a high-beta proxy on that same capex wave, with heavy institutional volume (3.1M shares pre-market) confirming real participation, not a thin gap.
VWAP anchor ~$96.80 · Expected opening range $94.50–$99.50 · ATR(14) $5.52 — bias long while holding above $95.
Support: $94.50 (VWAP −0.5 ATR), $91.50 (prior base). Resistance: $100.00 (psychological/round number), $102.50 (0.5 ATR extension).
AI-infrastructure-as-a-service names are catching a bid this morning as GPU-cloud capacity remains the tightest resource in the AI buildout; Nebius trades as a direct proxy on that theme alongside CoreWeave.
Reports that OpenAI is weighing a funding round above a $1.2T valuation reinforce the “capex keeps flowing” narrative that GPU-cloud names need to sustain momentum. Strong 4.8× five-minute relative volume shows real early participation ahead of the open.
VWAP anchor ~$206.00 · Expected opening range $198–$215 · ATR(14) $17.36 — bias long above VWAP.
Support: $198 (pre-market low area), $190 (prior swing). Resistance: $215 (0.5 ATR extension), $225 (round number/psych).
Custom-silicon and AI-networking chip demand keeps Marvell in the strongly-preferred bucket; it’s gapping alongside Intel and the broader semiconductor complex this morning.
Marvell is a direct beneficiary of the same hyperscaler AI-capex cycle behind the NBIS/CRWV move — custom ASICs and interconnect silicon for AI data centers. High-beta momentum name trading with clean early participation into a binary Fed catalyst.
VWAP anchor ~$220.50 · Expected opening range $214–$229 · ATR(14) $14.93 — bias long above VWAP.
Support: $214 (VWAP −0.5 ATR), $207 (prior base). Resistance: $229 (0.5 ATR extension), $236 (prior swing high, ~est.).
Early markup off a multi-week base — consistent with the broader semiconductor group structure.
Small-cap AI data-center infrastructure names are getting a lift this morning as capacity-constrained GPU hosting remains a hot theme; Applied Digital is the highest-beta name of today’s top-5 group.
Same AI-capex tailwind lifting NBIS, MRVL and CRWV, amplified by a much smaller float — 5.4× five-minute relative volume is the second-highest on today’s scan. Higher risk/reward given the lower absolute price and thinner liquidity than the mega-cap names above it.
VWAP anchor ~$23.30 · Expected opening range $22.40–$24.40 · ATR(14) $1.85 — bias long above VWAP, size down given elevated volatility (ATR% ~7.9%).
Support: $22.40 (VWAP −0.5 ATR), $21.50 (prior base). Resistance: $24.40 (0.5 ATR extension), $25.50 (round number).
Research Themes
AI Infrastructure Buildout Keeps Compounding
OpenAI reportedly discussing a funding round above a $1.2 trillion valuation underscores that AI capex has not slowed despite higher rates — the GPU-cloud and data-center-power complex (NBIS, CRWV, APLD, BE) is trading as the market’s highest-conviction growth theme into the Fed.
Semiconductors Rallying Into a Hawkish Fed
Chips are up broadly this morning (INTC, MRVL, AMD, MU) even as the market braces for a rate hike — a sign that AI-driven earnings visibility is currently outweighing rate sensitivity for this group. A hawkish dot plot is the key risk to watch this afternoon.
Energy Pulls Back as Diesel Crunch Simmers Underneath
WTI and Brent are both lower this morning even as the underlying diesel/heating-oil shortage story (prices above $6/gal, stocks at a 20-year seasonal low) keeps building. Watch for a reversal in crude on any Strait of Hormuz escalation headline — a fast-moving risk to the bullish equity setup.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc. | $80.92 | +2.22% | 188k | AI GPU-cloud infra; highest 5m rel. vol (5.9×) of the full scan, just outside today’s top 5. |
| WULF | TeraWulf Inc. | $14.49 | +2.05% | 145k | Bitcoin-proxy miner pivoting to AI/HPC hosting; smallest price and highest ATR% (~7.2%) in the group — high risk/reward. |
| COHR | Coherent Corp | $281.80 | +3.92% | ~103k (~est.) | Optical components for AI data-center interconnect; top gainer on today’s sector scan. |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics Inc | $98.34 | +3.20% | ~136k (~est.) | Small-cap optical networking name riding the same AI-interconnect demand as COHR. |
| AXTI | AXT Inc | $59.47 | +3.07% | ~209k (~est.) | Semiconductor substrate materials; thin float, elevated volatility. |
| DELL | Dell Technologies Inc | $558.40 | +2.74% | ~122k (~est.) | AI server/data-center hardware; large-cap, more defensive way to play the same infra theme. |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | $512.89 | +1.72% | ~174k (~est.) | Core AI-chip name, part of today’s broad semiconductor bid alongside INTC/MRVL. |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer Inc | $36.16 | +1.46% | ~374k (~est.) | AI server hardware; smaller price point, high-beta way to trade the data-center buildout. |
| MU | Micron Technology Inc | $935.80 | +0.88% | ~413k (~est.) | HBM/AI memory — key infrastructure name, most-active list, smaller gap than the top 5. |
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 17 | Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) First full session of Fed-decision fallout; market digests the dot plot and Warsh’s press conference tone. |
| Fri, Sep 18 | Quadruple Witching Quarterly expiration of stock index futures, index options, stock options and single-stock futures — expect elevated volume and potential late-day volatility. |
| Mon, Sep 21 | Start of new trading week Post-Fed, post-quad-witching positioning reset; watch for follow-through (or reversal) of this week’s growth-sector leadership. |
| Tue, Sep 22 | ~est. — flash PMI season opens S&P Global flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs typically land in this window; confirm exact date closer to release. |
| Wed, Sep 23 | ~est. — continued PMI / housing data flow Existing/new home sales data typically clusters in the back half of the month — relevant read-through for today’s LEN earnings. |
| Next week | Month-end positioning begins Watch for rebalancing flows into the final week of September as funds square up Q3 books. |