TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
GREEDupdated 7:15 AM PT
Sector Heatmap
Broad-based recovery: 10 of 11 sectors are green, led by materials, consumer discretionary and industrials as chip names rally on a strong Asia handover (Samsung, SK Hynix) and Sam Altman’s surprise Seoul visit. Energy is the lone red sector as Brent and WTI both drop over 4% on renewed US-Iran diplomatic progress out of Doha.
Market Bias
- Futures: S&P +0.44% to +0.53%, Nasdaq +0.75% to +0.86%, Dow +0.48% to +0.60% — broad green open after a brutal October (+12)
- VIX: ~18.99, mid-range, not panic-level (0)
- Newsletter tone: Deutsche Bank recommending buying tech’s selloff and Morgan Stanley’s Wilson saying “get ready to add risk,” tempered by Bloomberg Opinion’s AI-bubble skepticism and dot-com comparisons from MarketWatch (+3)
- Stocktwits mood: not confirmed this run (0 est.)
- CNN Fear & Greed: last confirmed read was deep Fear (~32-35) during last week’s selloff; today’s broad bounce implies modest improvement (+2 est.)
Sources: Yahoo Finance Morning Brief, Bloomberg Morning Briefing Americas, MarketWatch Need to Know, CNBC Morning Squawk
Overall Economic Summary
Markets open November trying to turn the page on a brutal October: the Nasdaq 100 posted its worst month in a year after Alphabet’s historic selloff and Intel’s worst single-day drop in more than four decades. Futures are broadly green this morning (S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%, Dow +0.5%) on a strong overnight handover from Asia, where SK Hynix and Samsung both jumped sharply after OpenAI’s Sam Altman made a surprise visit to Seoul to build AI-chip partnerships with both companies’ leadership. Deutsche Bank — which downgraded tech three weeks ago — is now recommending investors buy the dip, pointing to five V-shaped recoveries over the past 2.5 years, while Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says investors should “get ready to add risk.” Not everyone is convinced: Bloomberg’s John Authers argues each AI selloff brings “a day of reckoning” closer after Alphabet alone shed over $530B in market cap last week, and MarketWatch flags uncomfortable echoes of the dot-com era in the Nasdaq’s recent price action.
Crude is the session’s biggest mover: Brent and WTI are both down more than 4% in early trade as US and Iranian negotiators renewed diplomatic talks in Doha over the weekend, with Secretary of State Rubio saying Washington would prefer a peaceful resolution. Goldman Sachs still raised its December price forecasts (Brent $105, WTI $94) citing elevated disruption risk even as prices fall today. On the M&A front, Marvell is buying Lumentum for $115B in an all-stock deal (4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share) to build out AI data-center connectivity — a complement to Marvell’s memory (Micron) and GPU (Nvidia) partnerships per Jim Cramer. Crypto remains in focus after last week’s record $6.3-6.4B Binance hack: the FBI has formally blamed North Korea, Binance has seen $4.7B of net outflows since restoring withdrawals, yet Bitcoin has shown surprising resilience rather than cracking.
It’s a loaded week ahead: Apple reports earnings tonight in new CEO John Ternus’s first call at the helm, the US midterm elections are tomorrow with control of Congress genuinely in play, ISM Manufacturing PMI prints at 10am, and Friday brings the October jobs report. Buckle up.
Market Sentiment
S&P 500 futures are up roughly +0.44% to +0.53%, Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly +0.75% to +0.86%, and Dow futures are up roughly +0.48% to +0.60% across this morning’s newsletter snapshots — a clean regime read: futures > +0.25% = BULLISH. Filtering long-biased setups first today, concentrated in the overnight Asia chip rally (SK Hynix, STMicro, ASE Technology), AI software/infrastructure names bouncing off last week’s lows (CrowdStrike on a Deutsche Bank upgrade, CoreWeave, Tempus AI on an earnings beat) and energy-adjacent power infrastructure (Bloom Energy). A short-biased pair rounds out the list where today’s scanner produced qualifying bear setups with hard catalysts: Check Point Software on a revenue miss (-9.3%) and Oracle on continued AI-capex financing scrutiny (-3.2%).
Key Market Stats
Sources: Bloomberg Morning Briefing Americas, MarketWatch Need to Know, CNBC Morning Squawk, TradingView (TRDXCA)
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) | 54.6 | 54.5 | HIGH |
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) | — | 52.7 | MED |
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing New Orders (Oct) | — | 55.3 | LOW |
| 11:15 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | — | — | MED |
| 11:30 | 3-Month / 6-Month Bill Auctions | — | 4.014% / — | LOW |
| 14:00 | Loan Officer Survey | — | — | LOW |
| 15:00 | Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates | — | — | LOW |
| 19:00 | US Midterm Elections | — | — | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
First earnings call as CEO for John Ternus, trading near a record high as the best Mag7 performer YTD (+28%). Services growth and AI-spend restraint are the swing factors; Apple’s correlation to the Nasdaq-100 has recently turned negative, making it the de facto “anti-AI trade.”
Large beat on both adjusted and GAAP EPS with a revenue beat; stock +2.3% on the print and leading today’s Long Scan in the AI/health-data preferred bucket.
EPS squeaked past estimates but revenue missed and guidance evidently disappointed — shares reacted -9.6% on the day, the steepest mover in today’s bear scan.
Big beat on EPS and revenue; leading today’s Bull Gappers and Long Scan despite being a deprioritized consumer-staples name.
Beat and raised full-year guidance; RevPAR up over 7% in the US/Canada and over 9% in APAC ex-China. Shares +4.3% on the print.
Reports after the close into a session where chip names are already rallying hard on the SK Hynix/Samsung/Altman overnight tailwind — a read-through candidate for tomorrow’s semi tape.
Key Events Today
Key Senate battlegrounds (Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Maine, Ohio) are tight per final NYT/Siena polls; a Michigan Democratic rift deepened after Haley Stevens endorsed GOP nominee Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed. Morgan Stanley’s chief strategist argues the outcome is “good news regardless” for stocks.
FBI formally blames North Korea for the record $6.3-6.4B theft; Binance has seen $4.7B of net outflows since restoring withdrawals. Bitcoin has shown unexpected resilience rather than cracking — watch crypto-proxy equities (COIN, MSTR, IREN) for follow-through.
Brent and WTI both down over 4% after renewed Doha talks; Goldman still raised its December forecasts (Brent $105, WTI $94) citing elevated disruption risk even as today’s tape sees a sharp relief move lower.
Consensus 54.6 vs. 54.5 prior — a confirmation read on factory-sector health ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
TRDX Top 10 Movers
9 Long / 1 Short today — this list was set directly per trader request, superseding the automated scanner selection. Several names (AMZN, SPCX, GOOGL, NVDA, UAL, CVNA) fall outside today’s scanner exports, so their price, volume and level data is marked unconfirmed this run — verify live quotes before sizing. BABA, CCL, NCLH and ORCL carry confirmed pre-market figures from today’s scanner/newsletter data.
Still digesting last week’s double miss on EPS and revenue, offset by AWS’s fastest growth in five years and a bullish 40% cloud-growth guide for 2027-28. No fresh company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run).
Riding today’s broad-market bounce after a brutal October; AI-capex scrutiny remains the overhang on the stock’s near-term direction.
No live premarket quote confirmed this run — verify current price and VWAP before sizing. Bias: long with the broader tape while above VWAP reclaim.
Unconfirmed this run — pull fresh levels off the live chart before the open.
No company-specific headline or scanner data identified this run (unconfirmed this run — verify current price, volume and catalyst before sizing).
Fits the preferred space/defense-tech bucket; no sourced move data available in today’s pull.
No live premarket quote confirmed this run — verify current price and VWAP before sizing.
Unconfirmed this run — pull fresh levels off the live chart before the open.
Still recovering from last week’s historic selloff — over $530B in market cap lost and a technical “death cross” per Bloomberg’s John Authers. No fresh company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run).
Relief-bounce candidate within today’s broad-based green tape; AI-capex skepticism remains the key overhang per Bloomberg Opinion.
No live premarket quote confirmed this run — verify current price and VWAP before sizing. Bias: long with the broader tape while above VWAP reclaim.
Unconfirmed this run — pull fresh levels off the live chart before the open.
Direct beneficiary of today’s overnight Asia chip rally — SK Hynix and Samsung both jumped sharply after Sam Altman’s surprise Seoul visit to build AI-chip partnerships. No fresh company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run).
AI-chip bellwether riding the session’s strongest sector theme; mandatory Mag7-style anchor for the semiconductor complex.
No live premarket quote confirmed this run — verify current price and VWAP before sizing. Bias: long while the Asia-chip tailwind holds.
Unconfirmed this run — pull fresh levels off the live chart before the open.
Brent and WTI are both down over 4% this morning on renewed US-Iran diplomatic progress out of Doha — a direct fuel-cost tailwind for airlines. No company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run).
Deprioritized sector under the standing trader profile, included here per explicit request; today’s sharp crude selloff is a real, sourced catalyst for the group.
No live premarket quote confirmed this run — verify current price and VWAP before sizing. Bias: long while crude stays weak.
Unconfirmed this run — pull fresh levels off the live chart before the open.
No fresh company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run — verify before sizing); move is consistent with broad risk-on tone and Asia-market strength overnight.
Leading today’s Bull Gappers; benefiting from the same positive Asia handover that lifted SK Hynix and Samsung.
VWAP anchor ~$98.04. Opening range ~$95.4-$100.7. Bias: long while Asia strength persists.
Support: $94.20 (target) / $91.10 (stop). Resistance: $101.30 (target) / $104.50 (stop).
No company-specific headline or scanner data identified this run (unconfirmed this run — verify current price, volume and catalyst before sizing).
High-growth consumer-cyclical name; no sourced move data available in today’s pull.
No live premarket quote confirmed this run — verify current price and VWAP before sizing.
Unconfirmed this run — pull fresh levels off the live chart before the open.
No fresh company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run — verify before sizing); move is consistent with broad consumer-discretionary/travel strength this morning.
Leading today’s Bull Gappers alongside sister cruise name NCLH; cheaper crude (down >4% today) is a real tailwind for fuel-sensitive travel names.
VWAP anchor ~$28.83. Opening range ~$28.0-$29.7. Bias: long while the travel/consumer-discretionary bid holds.
Support: $27.60 (target) / $26.70 (stop). Resistance: $29.90 (target) / $30.80 (stop).
No fresh company-specific headline identified this run (unconfirmed this run — verify before sizing); move is consistent with broad cruise/travel-sector strength alongside CCL.
Cheaper crude (down >4% today) is a fuel-cost tailwind for the cruise sector; riding the same consumer-discretionary bid as Carnival.
VWAP anchor ~$17.57. Opening range ~$17.0-$18.1. Bias: long while the travel/consumer-discretionary bid holds.
Support: $16.80 (target) / $16.20 (stop). Resistance: $18.20 (target) / $18.80 (stop).
Continued scrutiny of debt-financed AI capex across the hyperscaler complex; Bloomberg’s John Authers writes each AI selloff brings “a day of reckoning” closer after last week’s >$530B Alphabet market-cap wipeout.
Oracle’s own heavy AI-infrastructure financing commitments make it a lightning rod for the AI-capex-skepticism theme even as the broader tape bounces.
VWAP anchor ~$130.67. Opening range ~$126.9-$134.4. Bias: short while AI-financing doubt narrative persists.
Support: $125.30 (target) / $120.60 (stop-cover). Resistance: $135.90 (target) / $140.20 (stop).
Research Themes
OpenAI’s Sam Altman made a surprise visit to South Korea, meeting ~50 Samsung executives and SK Chairman Chey Tae-won to build AI-chip partnerships, sending SK Hynix and Samsung sharply higher overnight and lifting the broader semiconductor complex (STM, ASX, AXTI) into today’s open.
Tickers: SKHY, STM, ASX, AXTI, MU · Sources: CNBC Morning Squawk
Marvell is acquiring Lumentum for $115B in an all-stock deal (4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share) to build out AI data-center connectivity, complementing its existing memory (Micron) and GPU (Nvidia) partnerships. Lumentum itself is down premarket (deal-ratio dynamics), but the broader optical/connectivity complex (COHR) is worth tracking into the CEOs’ 9:15 AM ET CNBC interview.
Tickers: MRVL, LITE, COHR, MU, NVDA · Sources: CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer
Despite the FBI formally blaming North Korea for the record $6.3-6.4B Binance theft and $4.7B of net outflows since withdrawals were restored, Bitcoin has shown unexpected resilience rather than cracking. Crypto-proxy equities (COIN, MSTR, IREN) remain worth monitoring for divergence from spot BTC price action; Reddit (RDDT, -20.8% on its own earnings blowup last week, excluded from today’s Top 10 as its gap exceeds the ±15% cap) and Intel (INTC, still absent from today’s scanner exports) are both discussed in newsletters but not scanner-qualifying today.
Tickers: COIN, MSTR, IREN, BTC · Sources: Bloomberg Morning Briefing Americas
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Tue Nov 3 | US Midterm Elections — control of both chambers in play; JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders, Total Vehicle Sales |
| Wed Nov 4 | ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade, ISM Services PMI, Treasury Refunding Announcement — first post-election economic data batch |
| Thu Nov 5 | Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity QoQ, multiple Fed speakers (Hammack, Barkin, Logan), EIA Natural Gas Stocks |
| Fri Nov 6 | October Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (the week’s headline print), Average Hourly Earnings, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim |
| Week of Nov 9 | Earnings season continues into its back half; markets digest the midterm outcome and Friday’s jobs report heading into mid-November |