TRDX Daily US Market Briefing for August 21st, 2026

TRDX Daily US Market Briefing — Friday August 21 2026

Sector Heatmap

Basic Mat.

XLB

+2.00%

Technology

XLK

+0.84%

Industrials

XLI

+0.77%

Financials

XLF

+0.68%

Cons. Disc.

XLY

+0.61%

Comm. Svcs

XLC

+0.59%

Utilities

XLU

+0.40%

Real Estate

XLRE

+0.24%

Healthcare

XLV

+0.12%

Energy

XLE

+0.10%

Cons. Stap.

XLP

+0.08%

All 11 sectors green. Basic Materials leads on gold at all-time highs ($4,652/oz) and copper near records. Technology and Financials the next-best performers as AI and crypto rally simultaneously. Breadth is exceptional — 100% green breadth ahead of MOPEX open.

Market Bias

EXTREME GREED

Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed

Score: 72 / 100

📈 Futures (ES1! +0.44%, NQ1! +0.67%, YM1! +0.56%, RTY1! +0.77%): All four major index futures green — broad risk-on confirmation. +20 pts
😌 VIX at 15.48 (−3.37%): Complacency borderline with the sub-15 regime — fear floor collapsing, approaching full “no fear” territory. +10 pts
📰 Newsletter Tone (Yahoo Finance, StockTwits): Bullish undertone — crypto winter thaw narrative + national debt milestone framing risk-on mood. +8 pts
💬 Stocktwits Sentiment: Crypto names (MSTR, COIN, CRCL) top trending with bullish bias. +5 pts
😨 CNN Fear & Greed: Implied Extreme Greed — gold ATH, all sectors green, low VIX. +8 pts

Sources: TradingView (ES1!, VIX), Yahoo Finance Morning Brief, StockTwits Chart Art Newsletter (Aug 21 2026)

Overall Economic Summary

Friday, August 21 opens with a clean risk-on macro tableau. Gold has broken to all-time highs at $4,652/oz as the US Dollar Index slides to 98.67 — its weakest level since the spring — on mounting fiscal pressure. The Yahoo Finance Morning Brief headlines “The national debt crosses an ominous milestone,” a dynamic that historically accelerates gold and hard-asset demand while pressuring the dollar. Simultaneously, the crypto winter thaw narrative is crystallizing: MSTR (+7.81%), COIN (+7.58%), and CRCL (+6.45%) are surging in pre-market, suggesting institutional positioning into digital assets is accelerating at scale.

The macro backdrop for equities is constructive. FOMC minutes released Wednesday (Aug 19) confirmed a 9-3 vote with the first three-way, same-direction dissent since September 2016 — a hawkish-lean minority can’t derail a resilient market sitting just below record highs. The 10-year yield is cooperating at 4.692% (−0.34%), giving growth stocks room to run. The retail earnings wave — Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Walmart, Deere — has cleared the calendar, removing a key earnings overhang. Today’s macro calendar is deliberately light.

The key thematic complex today is a triumvirate of commodity supercycle (metals), crypto revival (BTC proxies and exchanges), and AI infrastructure (optical components, InP substrates, HBM memory). With MOPEX (Monthly Options Expiration) as today’s structural catalyst, expect accelerated moves in both directions around key strike levels — favoring breakout-style entries over mean-reversion. Jackson Hole symposium looms next week, with Fed Chair Warsh’s first major post-appointment speech as the macro anchor for the coming week.

Market Sentiment

Market regime is BULLISH. S&P 500 E-mini futures at 7,696 (+0.44%), Nasdaq E-mini at 29,496 (+0.67%), Dow E-mini at 53,146 (+0.56%), and Russell 2000 E-mini at 3,022 (+0.77%) all confirm broad participation in today’s bid. Filtering LONG setups only today. Metals complex is the primary regime driver — gold printing all-time highs above $4,650 is the loudest signal the market is sending. The weak dollar (DXY 98.67), low VIX (15.48), and crypto breakout create a multi-vector risk-on environment ideal for momentum longs. On MOPEX Friday, expect the opening range to establish quickly — breakouts above pre-market highs with expanding RVOL are the primary trigger.

Key Market Stats

S&P Futures (ES1!)

7,696

+33.50 (+0.44%)

Nasdaq Futures (NQ1!)

29,496

+195.25 (+0.67%)

Dow Futures (YM1!)

53,146

+297 (+0.56%)

Russell 2K (RTY1!)

3,022

+23.1 (+0.77%)

VIX

15.48

−0.54 (−3.37%)

10Y Yield

4.692%

−0.016 (−0.34%)

DXY Dollar

98.667

−0.172 (−0.17%)

Gold (MGC1!)

$4,652

+80.90 (+1.77%) 🔥 ATH

Silver (SIL1!)

$69.61

+1.50 (+2.20%)

WTI Crude (MCL1!)

$86.90

+0.07 (+0.08%)

Brent Crude (BRN1!)

$93.87

+0.09 (+0.10%)

Economic Calendar — Friday, August 21, 2026

Time (ET)	Event	Consensus	Prior	Impact
All Day	Monthly Options Expiration (MOPEX) Max pain, pin risk, and gamma squeezes across major indices and single names. Elevated intraday volatility expected, especially in the first and last 30 minutes.	—	—	HIGH
All Week	Reddit (RDDT) S&P 500 Debut Index inclusion rebalancing flows ongoing this week. Passive fund buying supports broad market breadth.	—	—	MED
Post-Wed	FOMC Minutes (Released Aug 19) July 28-29 meeting: 9-3 vote, first three-way same-direction dissent since Sept 2016. Market has digested — rates path remains data-dependent. No additional Fed speakers scheduled today.	—	9-3	LOW (digested)
Background	National Debt Milestone (Ominous) US national debt crosses a key threshold per Yahoo Finance Morning Brief. Dollar weakness and gold ATH are the direct market reactions. Supports hard asset and commodity longs.	—	—	MED

Today’s Earnings — August 21, 2026

No major earnings scheduled for today. The retail earnings wave (Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Walmart, Analog Devices, Deere & Co, Ross Stores, Alibaba) concluded Thursday August 20. The calendar is clear — macro and technical setups drive the tape today.

Key Events Today

⚡ MOPEX — Monthly Options Expiration

All Day

Third Friday of August = Monthly OpEx. Index and single-stock options expire today, triggering gamma dealer hedging and potential pin action around major strike levels. Expect concentrated volatility in the ORB (9:30-10:00 ET) and into the close (3:30-4:00 ET). MOPEX days historically favor breakout continuation when the overall tape is directional — today’s BULLISH futures setup argues for longs into opening range breakouts, not fades.

🥇 Gold at All-Time Highs ($4,652/oz)

Pre-Market Catalyst

MGC1! Micro Gold Futures printing ATH at $4,652.3 (+1.77%) at 08:09 ET. Silver (SIL1!) confirming at $69.61 (+2.20%). DXY at 98.67 and falling — weak dollar is the structural driver. FCX and other copper/gold names are the primary equity beneficiaries. Basic Materials sector leading all 11 sectors. This is not a one-day event — the CHoCH and BOS signals on the Gold daily chart confirm a structural breakout, not a spike.

🔐 SPCX Share Unlock — 319M Shares

Key Risk Event

SpaceX (SPCX) second major share unlock event — 319 million shares become eligible for trading today, which triggered a −4.05% drop Thursday. Today the stock is attempting recovery from $134. With 28 analyst buy ratings and +52.88% consensus upside target, the unlock is creating a dip-buy opportunity rather than a sustained downtrend. Morgan Stanley has flagged four year-end catalysts. Watch for stabilization and reversal confirmation before entering long.

🌐 Jackson Hole Symposium — Next Week

Forward Risk Event — Week of Aug 24

The Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins next week with Fed Chair Warsh delivering his first major address since appointment. Market will position into this event — any dovish lean could extend the equity rally; hawkish tone risks a sharp reversal. Today’s positioning into MOPEX sets the base from which next week’s moves will develop.

₿ Crypto Winter Thaw — Ecosystem Breakout

Broad Crypto Catalyst

Yahoo Finance Morning Brief asks: “Is the crypto winter starting to thaw?” Pre-market action answers definitively: MSTR +7.81% (vol 2.88M), COIN +7.58% (vol 487K), CRCL +6.45% (vol 1.49M), HOOD +5.03% on crypto-driven trading volumes. This is broad crypto ecosystem participation — exchanges, treasury holders, stablecoin operators, and retail platforms all rallying in concert. Bitcoin proxy names are the day’s loudest bid.

TRDX Top 10 Movers — Friday August 21 2026 Regime: BULLISH · Long setups only

HOOD ▲ LONG

Robinhood Markets, Inc.

$95.10

+5.03%

Finance · Pre-mkt Vol: 999K (avg 14.6M, 1.73× rel.) · ATR(14): $5.47 · Float: ~897M · Beta: 3.92 · 5-min RVOL: 3.76×

Catalyst

Crypto ecosystem breakout is the primary driver. With MSTR (+7.81%), COIN (+7.58%), and CRCL (+6.45%) all ripping pre-market, Robinhood — the dominant retail trading platform with deep crypto integration — is capturing both the volume surge and the sentiment lift. Higher BTC/crypto prices → higher retail trading activity → higher HOOD revenue from transaction-based and margin revenues. HOOD’s pre-market volume of 999K at 5:03 AM ET already represents near-institutional conviction at 3.76× its 5-minute RVOL.

Why It’s Moving

HOOD is the pure-play beneficiary of retail investor re-engagement with risk assets. When crypto rallies aggressively, Robinhood’s trading volumes expand non-linearly because its customer base skews heavily crypto-native. Additionally, HOOD has been building out its brokerage infrastructure (credit cards, retirement accounts, options) which diversifies revenue and justifies re-rating. Thursday’s stock closed −0.70% (slight weakness) but the pre-market is establishing a breakout setup that aligns with the broader risk-on regime. Beta of 3.92 means this name moves ~4x the S&P — ideal for a BULLISH MOPEX day.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$95.10 (pre-market reference). Opening range target: $94–$97 expected. 20MA: ~$87 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$79 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$68 (~est.). ATR(14): $5.47. Upside trigger: break and hold above $96.50 with RVOL ≥ 2× → target $101–$102. Bias: LONG on confirmed ORB above pre-market high.

Support & Resistance

Support: $93.50 (pre-market consolidation base), $91.00 (prior day close reference area). Resistance: $96.50–$97 (pre-market high zone), $100 (psychological + prior swing high).

Wyckoff Phase

Mark-Up Phase (Phase D/E) — prior accumulation at $75-80 base completed; price is in a trending up-thrust. This morning’s gap is continuation, not exhaustion.

Sources: Scanner I (Pre-Market Gappers 07:00-09:00 ET Aug 21 2026) · Yahoo Finance Morning Brief · StockTwits Chart Art Newsletter

AXTI ▲ LONG

AXT Inc. (Indium Phosphide / GaAs Substrates)

$73.12

+4.12%

Electronic Technology · Pre-mkt Vol: 152K (avg 14.8M, 0.58× 1d rel.) · ATR(14): $10.68 · Float: ~65.6M · Beta: 3.84 · 5-min RVOL: 3.64×

Catalyst

AXT reported $30.7M in Indium Phosphide (InP) revenue for Q2 2026 — a dramatic acceleration driven by AI data center demand for InP-based optical components. InP substrates are the critical material enabling high-speed transceivers used in AI cluster interconnects (the exact products COHR and AAOI build on top of). With gold and silver at multi-year highs and the broader materials complex surging, AXTI also carries a precious/rare metal narrative as gallium and indium prices rise alongside the commodity supercycle.

Why It’s Moving

AXTI is the picks-and-shovels of the AI photonics supply chain. Every COHR transceiver and AAOI optical component that goes into an Nvidia GPU cluster starts with an InP substrate from a company like AXT. With AI capex projections for 2026-2028 accelerating (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon all expanding data center footprints), InP demand growth is structural — not cyclical. Today’s +4.12% pre-market gap on 3.64× 5-minute RVOL confirms institutional awareness of the InP/AI thesis.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$73.12. Opening range: $72–$75.50. 20MA: ~$65 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$56 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$42 (~est.). ATR(14): $10.68 — this is a wide-ranging name. Upside trigger: hold above $73 after open → target $78–$80. Bias: LONG on ORB above $74.

Support & Resistance

Support: $70.00 (round number + pre-market base), $67.50 (prior consolidation). Resistance: $76–$77 (supply zone / prior swing), $80 (psychological + ATR extension).

Wyckoff Phase

Accumulation (Phase C/D) — this stock was in a long base; the AI InP catalyst is providing the Spring/LPS trigger for mark-up.

Sources: Scanner I (Pre-Market Gappers 07:00-09:00 ET Aug 21 2026) · Kalkine Media (AXT InP Q2 revenue) · Web Research Aug 2026

FCX ▲ LONG

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.

$71.22

+4.04%

Non-Energy Minerals · Pre-mkt Vol: 159K (avg 11.0M, 1.60× rel.) · ATR(14): $2.76 · Float: ~1.44B · Beta: 1.73 · 5-min RVOL: 5.26×

Catalyst

Gold at all-time highs ($4,652/oz, +1.77%) and copper surging toward records. FCX is the largest publicly traded copper miner in the United States and one of the world’s premier copper-gold mining companies (operates the Grasberg mine in Indonesia — one of the world’s largest copper and gold deposits). FCX already closed +3.08% Thursday and is now adding another +4.04% pre-market, establishing a two-day momentum run. Strong supply disruptions in southern hemisphere mines and structurally tightening copper inventory globally have compressed the market.

Why It’s Moving

Copper is the metal of the AI/clean energy buildout — every data center, EV, solar farm, and power grid upgrade requires massive amounts of copper. The AI capex supercycle has structurally re-rated copper demand. With DXY at 98.67 and falling (dollar-priced commodities move inversely to USD), FCX is double-benefiting: commodity price up AND dollar down = revenue inflation for a US-listed miner with overseas production costs. 5-min RVOL of 5.26× is among the highest in the entire scanner — institutional orders are landing.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$71.22. Opening range: $70.50–$73.00. 20MA: ~$65 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$60 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$54 (~est.). ATR(14): $2.76. Upside trigger: sustained hold above $72 → target $74–$75 (next supply zone). Bias: LONG on any morning pullback into $70–$71 demand zone.

Support & Resistance

Support: $70.00 (major round number + pre-market base), $68.50 (prior day VWAP ~est.). Resistance: $73 (prior swing high), $75–$76 (supply zone / ATR extension from open).

Wyckoff Phase

Mark-Up Phase — commodity breakout continuation aligned with structural demand. Gold/copper ATH confirms the macro backing for this move.

Sources: Scanner I (Pre-Market Gappers 07:00-09:00 ET Aug 21 2026) · Kalkine Media (FCX copper/gold records) · QuiverQuant (FCX sentiment lift) · TradingKey (FCX Aug 20 analysis)

TSLA ▲ LONG

Tesla, Inc. — ORB Setup

$345.13

+1.17% ~est.

Consumer Discretionary / EV & AI · Pre-mkt Vol: ~est. (1d vol 30.77M) · ATR(14): ~$12 (~est.) · Float: ~3.19B · Beta: ~2.3 (~est.) · RVOL: elevated ORB candidate

Catalyst

TSLA is today’s primary ORB (Opening Range Breakout) setup. While the pre-market gap is modest (+1.17%), Tesla serves as the highest-beta proxy for the broad risk-on tape — when crypto is up 7%+ and gold is at ATH, TSLA participates as Elon Musk’s halo effect connects DOGE, BTC, and autonomous AI narratives. Thursday’s watchlist shows TSLA was the largest dollar-volume name in the ORB group with 30.77M shares traded. Key technical setup: a clean opening range break above $347-350 on expanding RVOL is the primary trigger.

Why It’s Moving

TSLA benefits from multiple concurrent narratives today: (1) Risk-on tape driven by crypto and metals; (2) AI/autonomous vehicle optimism tied to FSD development cadence; (3) Broad mega-cap tech recovery after Thursday’s dip on Walmart soft sales data. The ORB structure on TSLA is particularly powerful on MOPEX Fridays where dealer gamma positioning amplifies directional moves through $345, $350, $355 strike levels. A clean break above the pre-market high should extend quickly toward $350-355.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$345 (pre-market). Opening range: $343–$348 target zone. 20MA: ~$328 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$312 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$288 (~est.). ATR(14): ~$12 (~est.). Upside trigger: break above $348 on RVOL ≥ 1.5× → target $354–$358. Bias: LONG — ORB break above pre-market high.

Support & Resistance

Support: $342 (pre-market low / demand base), $338 (prior day VWAP area ~est.). Resistance: $348–$350 (strike cluster / supply zone), $355–$357 (ATR extension target).

Sources: Watchlist Screenshot (ORB group, Aug 21 2026) · Benzinga SPY/QQQ/Mega-Cap Analysis · Pre-market data ~est.

GOOGL ▲ LONG

Alphabet Inc. — ORB Setup

$340.67

+0.64% ~est.

Communication Services / AI Cloud · Pre-mkt Vol: ~est. (1d vol 18.57M) · ATR(14): ~$8 (~est.) · Float: ~11.9B · Beta: ~1.1 (~est.) · RVOL: ORB candidate

Catalyst

GOOGL is an ORB setup as part of the mega-cap AI recovery complex. The AI cloud narrative remains the primary driver — Google’s GCP/TPU/Gemini stack positions it as a direct beneficiary of enterprise AI deployment. Thursday weakness (−1.17%) on the Walmart soft-sales macro overhang sets up a Friday MOPEX recovery pattern. GOOGL is a key name in the Benzinga SPY/QQQ mega-cap technical analysis, with major options strike exposure in the $340-345 range creating MOPEX-specific price magnetism.

Why It’s Moving

Alphabet’s AI monetization (search AI overviews, YouTube AI summaries, cloud AI contracts) provides a durable growth tailwind that the market continues to re-rate. On a BULLISH MOPEX day, large-cap AI plays benefit from options dealer long-gamma hedging — as GOOGL rises, dealers who sold calls buy stock to hedge, creating a self-reinforcing move. The key is capturing the opening range break before dealer flow fully engages.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$340.67. Opening range: $339–$344 expected. 20MA: ~$330 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$318 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$298 (~est.). ATR(14): ~$8 (~est.). Upside trigger: hold above $342 after ORB → target $348–$350. Bias: LONG on ORB above $343.

Support & Resistance

Support: $338 (prior day close zone), $335 (20MA buffer ~est.). Resistance: $344–$345 (MOPEX pin zone), $350 (psychological + ATR target).

Sources: Watchlist Screenshot (ORB group, Aug 21 2026) · Benzinga SPY/QQQ/Mega-Cap Analysis · Pre-market data ~est.

SPCX ▲ LONG

Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

$134.00

+0.78% ~est.

Space / Defense Tech · Pre-mkt Vol: ~est. (1d vol 119.81M) · ATR(14): ~$8 (~est.) · Float: large unlock · Beta: ~2.0 (~est.) · Analyst consensus: 28 BUY / 2 SELL

Catalyst

SPCX experienced its second major share unlock today — 319 million shares became eligible for trading, causing a −4.05% drop Thursday to $134.00. Today the stock is attempting recovery (+0.78% pre-market). This is a classic dip-buy-the-unlock setup: the selling pressure from unlock eligibility was front-run Thursday, and buyers are stepping in Friday at support. Morgan Stanley has identified four year-end catalysts for SPCX (Starship launch cadence, AI satellite capabilities, Starlink monetization, SpaceX AI acquisition pipeline). Wall Street was worried about a crash on the unlock — instead shares rose 21% from the pre-unlock bottom and are now stabilizing.

Why It’s Moving

SpaceX is the world’s most valuable private company now trading publicly. With 28 analyst buy ratings and +52.88% consensus upside from current levels, the structural bull case is overwhelming. The unlock created a tactical opportunity — not a structural break. Monday volume of 119.81M shares confirms SPCX is one of the most actively traded names in the market. Today is about recognizing the support base at $134 and participating in the recovery. Watch for the first 5-minute candle to hold above $134 — that’s the confirmation long trigger.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$134. Opening range: $133–$137 expected. 20MA: ~$141 (~est., price is below 20MA post-unlock) | 50MA: ~$138 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$125 (~est.). ATR: ~$8 (~est.). Upside trigger: reclaim $136–$137 (50MA zone) → target $140–$142. Bias: LONG — recovery from unlock dip, confirm hold above $134.

Support & Resistance

Support: $132 (Thursday intraday low), $130 (strong demand zone / 200MA buffer). Resistance: $137–$138 (50MA reclaim zone ~est.), $141–$142 (20MA + prior support-turned-resistance).

Wyckoff Phase

Spring/LPS (Last Point of Support) — the unlock created a shakeout below the range. Today’s recovery tests whether buyers are absorbing the unlock supply. Confirmation of demand absorption = long entry.

Sources: Watchlist Screenshot (Aug 21 2026) · CNBC (SPCX share unlock) · 24/7 Wall St. (SPCX post-unlock +21%) · Morgan Stanley (4 year-end catalysts) · Investing.com · ~est. pre-mkt data

COHR ▲ LONG

Coherent Corp. — AI Optical Transceivers

$290.03

+2.58%

Electronic Technology · Pre-mkt Vol: 108K (avg 9.4M, 0.53× 1d rel.) · ATR(14): $33.25 · Float: ~195M · Beta: 2.42 · 5-min RVOL: 4.92×

Catalyst

Coherent is in a recovery trajectory after the Aug 10 “optics vs. memory debate” selloff (social media-driven) that was rapidly reversed with a +9.78% session on Aug 17. Today’s +2.58% pre-market continues the re-accumulation. COHR is the dominant AI optical transceiver supplier — the company’s 800G and 1.6T transceivers are the critical interconnect technology inside Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscaler AI GPU clusters. AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics) reports that data center optical demand is accelerating — Coherent is the large-cap version of the same thesis.

Why It’s Moving

The “optics vs. memory” debate that crashed COHR Aug 10 was a false narrative — the reality is AI systems need BOTH high-bandwidth memory (SKHY/HBM) AND optical transceivers for cluster interconnects. They are not substitutes. As this understanding has crystallized in institutional circles, money has rotated back into COHR. With 5-minute RVOL at 4.92× and $290 acting as a key support/resistance pivot, a confirmed break above $292-295 on MOPEX day could compress quickly to $300+.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$290.03. Opening range: $288–$295 expected. 20MA: ~$275 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$260 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$232 (~est.). ATR(14): $33.25 — this name can move $30+ in a single session. Upside trigger: hold above $292 → target $300–$305. Bias: LONG on ORB above $292.

Support & Resistance

Support: $285 (consolidation base), $278 (20MA buffer ~est.). Resistance: $295 (Aug 17 gap fill), $300 (psychological + ATR1 extension from open).

Sources: Scanner I (Pre-Market Gappers Aug 21 2026) · 247WallSt (COHR optics debate Aug 10) · TradingKey (COHR Aug 17 +9.78%) · Yahoo Finance AAOI analysis

SKHY ▲ LONG

SK Hynix Inc. American — HBM & AI Memory

$163.08

+2.34% ~est.

Electronic Technology / Memory · Pre-mkt Vol: ~est. (1d vol 21.69M) · ATR(14): ~$8 (~est.) · Float: ~large · Beta: ~2.5 (~est.) · HBM3E Dominant Supplier

Catalyst

Two simultaneous catalysts: (1) SK Hynix announces a $29 billion share buyback — one of the largest corporate buybacks in Korean corporate history, announced amid memory volatility, sending a powerful signal of management confidence and shareholder return commitment. (2) SK Hynix may expand into Japan with a massive new factory (Benzinga, Aug 21 2026) — a strategic move to diversify its HBM manufacturing footprint. Combined, these catalysts cement SKHY as the most news-heavy AI memory play of the day.

Why It’s Moving

SK Hynix is NVIDIA’s primary HBM3E (High Bandwidth Memory) supplier. Every H100, H200, and B200 GPU shipped by Nvidia contains SK Hynix HBM stacked inside. With AI infrastructure spending accelerating and HBM being the single most constrained component in the AI GPU supply chain, SK Hynix’s pricing power is extraordinary. The $29B buyback at current prices implies massive management confidence that the stock is undervalued relative to HBM earnings trajectory. Japan factory expansion adds optionality.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$163.08. Opening range: $162–$167 expected. 20MA: ~$152 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$138 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$122 (~est.). ATR(14): ~$8 (~est.). Upside trigger: break above $165 on volume → target $170–$172. Bias: LONG — buyback + Japan factory = sustained institutional demand.

Support & Resistance

Support: $160 (psychological + buyback announcement base), $157 (prior consolidation ~est.). Resistance: $167–$168 (prior swing high ~est.), $172 (ATR1 extension from open ~est.).

Sources: Watchlist Screenshot (Aug 21 2026) · Benzinga (SKHY $29B buyback, Aug 21 2026) · Benzinga (SKHY Japan factory, Aug 21 2026) · ~est. scanner data

AAOI ▲ LONG

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

$129.10

+2.25%

Electronic Technology · Pre-mkt Vol: 114K (avg 15.0M, 0.64× 1d rel.) · ATR(14): $16.39 · Float: ~84.6M · Beta: 2.80 · 5-min RVOL: 3.69×

Catalyst

Applied Optoelectronics is pointing to $1.8 billion in added value potential ahead of its Q2 earnings review. AAOI designs and manufactures optical components (transceivers, lasers, amplifiers) specifically for data center and CATV (cable) applications. With AI data center optical demand accelerating alongside COHR, AAOI represents the smaller-cap, higher-beta version of the same AI photonics thesis. From the June 24, 2026 briefing calibration, AAOI has been confirmed as a Top-Tier mover (Rosenblatt PT $220 based on the 1.6T order infrastructure buildout).

Why It’s Moving

The AI optical transceiver market is in the early innings of a multi-year capacity expansion driven by hyperscaler GPU cluster interconnect demand. AAOI’s data center segment is growing at triple-digit rates as customers like AWS, Google, and Meta require ever-faster within-cluster communication at lower cost per bit. With COHR (the large-cap peer) up +2.58% pre-market and the AI networking thesis gaining momentum, AAOI is catching bid as the higher-beta, smaller-float alternative. The $1.8B added value narrative provides a fundamental anchor for the technical move.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$129.10. Opening range: $128–$133 expected. 20MA: ~$118 (~est.) | 50MA: ~$105 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$82 (~est.). ATR(14): $16.39 — expect wide intraday ranges. Upside trigger: hold above $131 → target $138–$140 (near Rosenblatt $220 trajectory milestone). Bias: LONG on ORB above pre-market high.

Support & Resistance

Support: $126.50 (pre-market base), $123 (prior week demand zone ~est.). Resistance: $133–$134 (ATR extension from close), $140 (prior swing high ~est.).

Sources: Scanner I (Pre-Market Gappers Aug 21 2026) · ts2.tech (AAOI $1.8B value analysis) · Yahoo Finance (AAOI vs LITE and COHR) · June 24 2026 briefing calibration

ASTS ▲ LONG

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. — Direct-to-Cell Satellite

$65.06

+2.51%

Communications · Pre-mkt Vol: 125K (avg 11.1M, 0.76× 1d rel.) · ATR(14): $5.28 · Float: ~388M · Beta: 2.17 · 5-min RVOL: 3.41×

Catalyst

AST SpaceMobile filed an 8-K (Form 8-K FY2026) covering Q2 2026 results and operational milestones. ASTS is the pioneer of direct-to-cell satellite broadband — its BlueBird satellite constellation provides cellular connectivity directly to standard smartphones without any additional hardware. The 8-K disclosure combined with a recovery bounce from the Aug 20 session low ($62.89) creates a technical re-entry opportunity. ASTS was confirmed as a key Top 5 mover in the June 12, 2026 briefing calibration and has been a recurring institutional favorite on space/communications days.

Why It’s Moving

ASTS is recovering from a two-day pullback that tested the $62.89 demand zone. The 8-K filing (Q2 2026) likely includes updates on satellite deployment, carrier partner agreements (AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten), and commercialization timeline. ASTS commands a massive addressable market ($1T+ total telecom access revenue globally) and is the only company with commercialized direct-to-cell service at scale. On a BULLISH MOPEX day where space names (LUNR also up +4.46%) are catching bid, ASTS benefits from sector rotation into satellite/space communication.

Key Daily Price Levels

VWAP anchor: ~$65.06. Opening range: $64–$67 expected. 20MA: ~$64 (~est., price is testing 20MA as support) | 50MA: ~$58 (~est.) | 200MA: ~$47 (~est.). ATR(14): $5.28. Upside trigger: hold above $65.50 after ORB → target $69–$70 (ATR1 from open). Bias: LONG — 8-K catalyst + technical bounce off $62.89 demand.

Support & Resistance

Support: $63.50 (prior day low / demand base), $62.89 (Aug 20 intraday low = hard support). Resistance: $67.50 (prior Aug swing high), $70 (ATR extension + psychological).

Wyckoff Phase

Last Point of Support (LPS) — two-day pullback from highs tested demand and is showing absorption. 8-K catalyst provides the fundamental trigger for the next leg up.

Sources: Scanner I (Pre-Market Gappers Aug 21 2026) · SEC.gov (ASTS 8-K FY2026) · CNBC (ASTS quote) · June 12 2026 briefing calibration

Research Themes

🥇 Metals Supercycle — Gold & Copper at Records

Gold is printing all-time highs above $4,652/oz as the national debt crosses a historic milestone and DXY falls below 99. Silver is confirming at $69.61 (+2.20%). This is not a risk-off flight to safety — it is a structural loss-of-confidence in fiat alongside risk-on equity behavior. Copper’s structural demand from AI data centers, EVs, and power grid expansion creates a dual-commodity thesis. FCX is the primary equity expression; HL, CDE, and USAR offer secondary exposure. Basic Materials sector leading all 11 sectors at +2.00%.

FCX

CDE

USAR

AXTI

Sources: TradingView (MGC1!, SIL1! charts) · Kalkine Media (FCX records) · Sector Performance Chart Aug 21 2026

🤖 AI Optical Supply Chain — Glass Fiber to GPU Clusters

The AI infrastructure buildout requires a complete photonics supply chain: InP substrates (AXTI) → semiconductor lasers → optical transceivers (COHR, AAOI) → data center interconnects at 800G/1.6T speeds. With hyperscaler capex at record levels and GPU cluster sizes growing from thousands to millions of accelerators, optical component demand is structural. The “optics vs. memory” false debate that crashed COHR Aug 10 has been corrected — AI needs both. This theme has confirmed multi-session staying power and is today’s highest-conviction AI infrastructure trade.

AXTI

COHR

AAOI

SKHY

NBIS

Sources: AXT Q2 2026 InP Revenue Report · ts2.tech AAOI Analysis · COHR TradingKey Aug 17 2026

₿ Crypto Winter Thaw — Exchanges & Proxies Lead

The Yahoo Finance Morning Brief asks “Is the crypto winter starting to thaw?” — pre-market price action answers definitively. MSTR (+6.90%), CRCL (+5.40%), COIN (+4.62%) are all surging on massive pre-market volume, suggesting institutional re-engagement rather than retail FOMO. HOOD (+5.03%) is the cleanest expression — it benefits from crypto volume without carrying crypto balance sheet risk. The national debt milestone and weak dollar (DXY 98.67) are the macro catalysts making hard assets and digital assets simultaneously attractive for the first time in this cycle.

HOOD

MSTR

COIN

CRCL

RIOT

Sources: Yahoo Finance Morning Brief (Aug 21 2026) · Scanner I (MSTR, CRCL, COIN data) · StockTwits Chart Art Newsletter

Secondary Movers Scanner qualifiers not in Top 10 — all LONG, BULLISH regime

Ticker	Company	Price	Gap %	Pre-mkt Vol	ATR	Beta	Note
MSTR	Strategy Inc.	$112.39	+6.90%	2,877K	$6.57	3.21	Largest pre-market mover by volume (2.88M). Bitcoin treasury proxy leading the crypto thaw theme. RVOL 6.73× — institutional conviction is highest here. Not in Top 10 only due to user-specified list; A+ setup.
CRCL	Circle Internet Group	$83.66	+5.40%	1,487K	$5.33	2.44	USDC stablecoin operator surging on crypto winter thaw. $21B market cap with RVOL 4.55×. Direct beneficiary of on-chain volume increase.
LUNR	Intuitive Machines	$17.93	+4.46%	319K	$1.60	3.74	Space sector day (SPCX unlock + ASTS recovery). Lunar lander / NASA commercial lunar services. High-beta small cap. Watch SPCX performance as leading indicator.
NBIS	Nebius Group N.V.	$220.11	+2.76%	411K	$25.61	2.65	AI cloud infrastructure provider (former Yandex). ATR of $25.61 means $220 stock can move $25 intraday. Confirmed strong in prior calibrations (June 26). $60B market cap with RVOL 4.25×.
HL	Hecla Mining Co.	$20.82	+3.07%	296K	$1.01	2.32	Silver and gold miner. Direct metals supercycle play. Silver at $69.61 (+2.20%) is the direct catalyst. Lower beta (2.32) suitable for traders who want metals exposure with less volatility than FCX.
RIOT	Riot Platforms	$20.98	+2.96%	361K	$1.99	2.70	Bitcoin mining proxy. Crypto ecosystem rally driving the entire BTC mining complex. RVOL 4.11× pre-market. Secondary to MSTR but provides diversified crypto exposure.
CRWV	CoreWeave Inc.	$89.76	+2.32%	299K	$8.37	3.17	AI cloud GPU rental infrastructure. Direct AI data center thesis. Watch as secondary to NBIS — same theme, different stage of build-out. Prior calibration confirmed CRWV as valid secondary on AI infrastructure days.

The Days Ahead

Date	Event / Key Item
Mon Aug 24	Post-MOPEX Open + Jackson Hole Symposium Begins Monthly options have expired — fresh positioning begins. Kansas City Fed Annual Economic Symposium opens at Jackson Hole, WY. Fed officials begin speaking; market will parse any policy signals. Watch for VIX expansion if Warsh sounds hawkish. S&P key support: ~7,630 (wick sweep level from chart).
Tue Aug 25	Jackson Hole Day 2 — Panel Sessions Panel discussions on monetary policy, inflation trajectory, and fiscal imbalances. The national debt milestone will be a backdrop topic. Regional Fed presidents may signal their rate path views. Dollar and yields may move on hawkish/dovish panel commentary.
Wed Aug 26	Jackson Hole Keynote — Fed Chair Warsh’s “Jackson Hole Test” The critical event of the week. Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first major post-appointment speech — capital markets will scrutinize every word for signals on rate cuts, QT pace, and tolerance for fiscal expansion. This is the biggest macro risk event between now and September FOMC.
Thu Aug 27	Weekly Jobless Claims + Durable Goods Orders Labor market health check. Durable goods orders reflect capex momentum — AI infrastructure capex theme will be tested here. Any upside surprise in durable goods = confirmation of the AI buildout thesis.
Fri Aug 28	PCE Inflation Data — Critical Fed Metric Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A benign PCE reading would cement rate cut expectations and extend the equity rally through end of August. A hot PCE would pressure bonds, lift yields, and potentially derail the gold/metals/growth setup.
Week of Sep 1	Labor Day Holiday (Mon Sep 1) + September FOMC Setup Markets closed Labor Day. The post-holiday session begins the September FOMC countdown (meeting ~Sep 16-17). Jackson Hole + PCE together will set the tone. End-of-August portfolio rebalancing and index reconstitution flows may create technical dislocations in the final days of August.

TRDX Daily US Market Briefing ⬆ BULLISH