TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
GREED · 63updated 5:36 AM PT / 8:36 AM ET (post-CPI)
Today marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and the passengers of Flight 93. We pause this morning to remember the nearly 3,000 lives lost and the families who carry that loss still. In the hours and days that followed, Canada stood shoulder to shoulder with our closest friend and ally: 224 diverted flights and almost 7,000 passengers were welcomed with open arms into Gander, Halifax, and communities across the country under Operation Yellow Ribbon, and over 100,000 Canadians gathered on Parliament Hill in a spontaneous show of grief and solidarity. That bond between our two nations has never wavered in the 25 years since. Never forget.
Sector Heatmap
Breadth is broad-based and bullish: 10 of 11 S&P sectors trade green, led by Industrials (+0.78%) and Financials (+0.68%). Energy is the lone laggard (-0.68%), giving back part of Thursday’s Iran-war driven spike as WTI and Brent both pull back double-digit percentages off their overnight highs.
Market Bias
- Futures (+12): Broad-based green tape — S&P +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.60%, Dow +0.55%, Russell 2000 +0.83% — all four major index futures clear the +0.25% bullish threshold.
- VIX (0): 17.09, +4.36% on the session — mid-range and not yet signaling panic despite the bond/oil stress underneath the tape.
- Newsletter tone (+4): Mixed-to-contrarian-bullish. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is calling for a “face-ripper rally” off today’s CPI, while other desks (CNBC Pro, Yahoo Morning Brief) are flagging “the end of the AI investment boom” as a live bear case.
- Stocktwits (0): Sentiment cooled into Thursday’s close after oil’s surge above $100 and a hot PPI print knocked growth names lower; no extreme reading either way this morning.
- CNN Fear & Greed (-3): 35 / Fear as of Thursday’s close — a modest drag, but exactly the kind of “staunchly bearish” sentiment backdrop Lee cites as fuel for a reflex rally if CPI cooperates.
Sources: TradingView (ES1!, NQ1!, YM1!, RTY1!, VIX charts), MarketWatch Need to Know, Stocktwits Chart Art, CNN/MacroMicro Fear & Greed Index.
Overall Economic Summary
Everything this morning runs through one release: the August CPI print at 8:30 AM ET. The setup is tense — the 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday just under 4.96%, its highest level since 2007-adjacent territory, after a brutal bond selloff pushed borrowing costs to the “cusp of 5%.” The proximate cause is oil: Brent topped $108 and WTI cleared $104 on Thursday as the Iran war ground into its seventh month and Houthi-Saudi fighting intensified near the Strait of Hormuz, with a six-member Gulf bloc now reportedly considering direct talks with Tehran next week. Diesel at the pump crossed $6/gallon for the first time ever. Fed-funds futures are pricing a 67-71% chance of a 25bp hike next Wednesday (Sept. 16) under new Chair Kevin Warsh — an unusual hawkish tilt driven entirely by energy-led inflation fear rather than growth strength.
Into that backdrop, equities have now fallen four straight sessions and sit roughly 2.7% off last month’s highs. But the tape this morning is quietly constructive: all three major index futures and the Russell 2000 are green, oil is pulling back sharply (-2.8% WTI, -3.4% Brent) from Thursday’s spike, and Treasury’s Wednesday buyback announcement (triple the normal size) is an attempt to backstop the bond market even if early results were underwhelming. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argues a downside CPI surprise could trigger a “face-ripper rally,” pointing to staunchly bearish AAII sentiment readings as the kind of setup that historically precedes sharp reflex bounces rather than market tops. Update, 8:30 AM ET: August CPI is out — headline printed exactly in line at +3.4% YoY / +0.4% MoM, but core (ex-food & energy) ran hot at +0.3% MoM vs. +0.2% expected. That’s a mixed result, not the clean downside surprise Lee’s rally call needed; the hot core reading keeps the Sept. 16 Fed-hike odds intact and argues for tighter risk sizing on the session’s highest-beta names.
On the sector side, the AI-infrastructure debate cuts both ways today. Oracle’s blowout after-hours print — cloud infrastructure revenue +93% YoY and FY27 guidance calling for 34% constant-currency growth — is the single biggest stock-specific catalyst of the morning and directly rebuts the “AI boom is ending” thesis that a competing Wall Street desk floated overnight. Microsoft’s plan to more than triple data-center capacity (adding 26 gigawatts by 2032) reinforces the same bull case. Set against that is a louder AI-safety narrative (OpenAI’s Altman reportedly open to slowing model development; a Bridgewater co-CIO warning AI “will kill people before it’s curbed”) that is background noise for now but worth tracking as a sentiment risk for the mega-cap AI complex heading into year-end.
Market Sentiment
Regime call: BULLISH. S&P futures +0.54% (7,639.25), Nasdaq futures +0.60% (29,310.75), Dow futures +0.55% (52,383), Russell 2000 futures +0.83% (2,917.3) — all four comfortably clear the +0.25% threshold. Filtering long setups only today; no short exposure qualifies under the non-negotiable regime rule, and none of today’s scanner-confirmed bear gappers (KR, OKLO, SMR, ADBE) are being added despite appearing on the desk’s own short watchlist.
Price (7,639) is consolidating just below the Equilibrium band after a mid-August BOS run to the 7,838 “weak high.” Structure is constructive but stretched — a CHoCH near 7,680 and a Long Lifeline near 7,520-7,560 mark the key pivots. A clean CPI-driven reclaim of 7,680 opens a retest of the 7,760-7,800 premium shelf; failure to hold 7,600 risks a wick sweep back toward the 7,520 lifeline.
Support: $7,600 (equilibrium), $7,524 (long lifeline). Resistance: $7,680 (CHoCH), $7,760–7,800 (premium shelf), $7,838 (weak high).
Nasdaq futures (29,311) are rebuilding off the late-July HL near 27,200 but have stalled below the LH/Premium zone at 30,250-30,500 for three weeks. Price is chopping around the EQH/EQL band (29,000-29,750). A soft CPI print that pushes through 29,750 targets the 30,250 lower-high; a hot print risks a fast fade back to the 28,500-29,000 discount shelf.
Support: $29,000 (EQL), $28,500 (discount shelf). Resistance: $29,750 (EQH), $30,250 (LH), $30,500 (premium).
Sources: TradingView ES1!, NQ1!, YM1!, RTY1! daily charts (as of 8:05-8:08 AM ET).
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Actual | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | US CPI (August, YoY headline) | +3.4% | +3.4% | +3.4% | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM | US CPI (August, MoM headline) | +0.4% | +0.4% | +0.1% | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM | US CPI Core, ex-Food & Energy (MoM) | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.2% | HIGH |
| 10:00 AM | Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sept.) | — | ~52.5 ~est. | 51.7 (Aug. final) | MED |
| All Day | 25th anniversary of 9/11 — Trump remarks at the Pentagon; VP Vance attends WTC commemoration | — | — | — | LOW |
Actual CPI prints via Mace News flash headlines, 8:30 AM ET. Headline YoY and MoM both landed exactly in line with consensus; core MoM ran hot (+0.3% vs. +0.2% expected), accelerating from July’s +0.2% pace.
Today’s Earnings
Revenue of $34.6B beat consensus by 0.89%, but the EPS miss is weighing on shares (-2.65% pre-market). Watch management’s commentary on fuel/diesel cost pass-through given record $6+/gallon diesel prices, and same-store sales trends as a read on the health of the price-sensitive consumer heading into the CPI print.
Small-cap, non-preferred sector — not actionable for this desk’s growth/momentum book, included for completeness only.
Both minor BMO reporters this morning; neither screens in a preferred or acceptable growth sector. No action.
Key Events Today
Actual: Headline +3.4% YoY (in line, unchanged from July) and +0.4% MoM (in line, but a sharp acceleration from July’s +0.1%). Core (ex-food & energy) ran hot at +0.3% MoM vs. +0.2% expected — the upside surprise sat in core, not headline.
This is not the clean downside surprise Fundstrat’s Tom Lee flagged as the trigger for a “face-ripper rally” — the hot core print keeps the 25bp Fed-hike case for Sept. 16 intact and argues for tighter risk management on the highest-beta names (AXTI, BE, NBIS, CRWV) into the open rather than chasing strength. Headline being in-line (not accelerating on a YoY basis) keeps today’s bullish futures tape from being fully invalidated, but this is a mixed print, not an unambiguous green light.
President Trump is scheduled to speak at the Pentagon; VP Vance attends the World Trade Center commemoration in Lower Manhattan. Ceremonial in nature with limited direct market impact expected, but a heavier-than-usual news-cycle day.
Frequency Electronics is up over 30% pre-market per Benzinga’s premarket scanner — far beyond our ±15% hard gap-filter cap, so it is excluded from the Top 10 list below. Flagging here since it also sits on the desk’s own “Long Setups” watchlist; worth a manual look if the move holds and volume confirms once the filter re-qualifies it.
Fed-funds futures are pricing a 67-71% probability of a 25bp hike under new Chair Kevin Warsh, an unusually hawkish setup driven by oil-led inflation fear rather than growth. This keeps rate-sensitive, high-multiple growth names on a shorter leash into next week regardless of how today’s session closes.
TRDX Top 10 Movers
CPRT swapped in for GOOGL per desk request (Q4 beat + ACV Auctions acquisition catalyst).
Thursday after-hours earnings beat: cloud infrastructure revenue +93% YoY, FY27 guidance calling for 34% constant-currency revenue growth and Q1 cloud growth of 58-64%. “Oracle’s AI bet pays off” per MarketWatch — the single biggest stock-specific catalyst of the morning.
Directly rebuts the competing “AI boom is nearing an end” narrative circulating overnight; institutional flow is rotating into names with confirmed AI-cloud revenue acceleration rather than just capex promises. Highest scanner-confirmed pre-market volume of any name on today’s list.
VWAP anchor ~$161 ~est. Expected opening range $158-$166. Long bias while above the pre-earnings gap fill.
Support: $158 (gap-fill), $152 (prior resistance-turned-support). Resistance: $168 (psych. round number), $175 (post-earnings extension target).
Sources: finviz.csv scan, MarketWatch Need to Know, Bloomberg.
Continued momentum in compound-semiconductor substrate demand tied to AI/data-center chip packaging; name remains a favorite dip-buy on the desk’s own Long Setups list despite a red daily candle.
Extremely high beta (4.01) and ATR ($7.69 on a $64.70 stock) make this a classic high-conviction breakout vehicle when semis are in favor; 5-minute RVOL of 4.65× confirms real early participation, not a thin print.
VWAP anchor ~$63.50 ~est. Expected opening range $61-$68 given the outsized ATR. Long bias above VWAP.
Support: $61 (VWAP-1ATR ~est.), $57 (recent swing low). Resistance: $68 (VWAP+1ATR ~est.), $72 (52-wk extension ~est.).
Sources: Pre-Market Bull Gappers I scan.
On-site fuel-cell power generation continues to screen as a direct beneficiary of AI data-center power-demand growth and, separately, of today’s energy-security anxiety (Iran war, Hormuz risk) — a rare name that benefits from both the AI-capex theme and the oil-shock theme simultaneously.
Highest beta and ATR of any name on today’s list; institutional flow into alternative/distributed power continues as hyperscalers look for power solutions outside the strained grid.
VWAP anchor ~$255 ~est. Expected opening range $245-$275 given the $19+ ATR. Long bias above VWAP.
Support: $245 (VWAP-1ATR ~est.), $230 (round number). Resistance: $275 (VWAP+1ATR ~est.), $290 (recent high ~est.).
Sources: Pre-Market Bull Gappers I scan.
Rides the same AI-infrastructure-demand wave as Oracle and Microsoft’s data-center capex news; a pure-play GPU-cloud name that benefits directly from “insatiable demand for compute capacity” (Piper Sandler note, CNBC Pro).
Thematic alignment with today’s dominant AI-capex-beats-doubters narrative; high beta and large ATR support a real intraday range for a breakout entry.
VWAP anchor ~$226 ~est. Expected opening range $214-$246. Long bias above VWAP.
Support: $214 (VWAP-1ATR ~est.), $200 (round number). Resistance: $246 (VWAP+1ATR ~est.), $260 (recent high ~est.).
Sources: Pre-Market Bull Gappers I scan.
Same AI-capex tailwind as ORCL/NBIS; carries the highest 5-minute relative volume (5.35×) of any name on today’s list, signaling genuine early conviction rather than a stale gap.
GPU-cloud pure-play; benefits from Microsoft’s 26GW data-center expansion headline and the broader “AI demand still accelerating” case that Oracle’s print reinforced overnight.
VWAP anchor ~$88 ~est. Expected opening range $83-$96. Long bias above VWAP.
Support: $83 (VWAP-1ATR ~est.), $78 (round number). Resistance: $96 (VWAP+1ATR ~est.), $102 (recent high ~est.).
Sources: Pre-Market Bull Gappers I scan.
The AI-chip bellwether; benefits indirectly from both Oracle’s cloud beat and Microsoft’s data-center capacity expansion, though its own pre-market gap is modest on a quiet stock-specific news day.
Included as a best-available fill given today’s thin gapper list (only 5 names cleared the +2% scanner threshold); Barclays’ fresh S&P 500 target hike explicitly cites “standout AI earnings” as the driver, with NVDA as the primary beneficiary.
VWAP anchor ~$218 ~est. Expected opening range $213-$226. Modest long lean.
Support: $213 (VWAP ~est.), $205 (round number). Resistance: $226 (near-term high ~est.), $235 (extension ~est.).
Sources: finviz.csv scan (Mag7/mega-cap exempt).
No fresh company-specific news overnight; included as the desk’s standing space/defense anchor name and one of the highest-volume tickers on the active list this morning.
Broad risk-on tape and continued institutional accumulation in the space/defense-tech complex; a thin-gapper day makes this a lower-conviction, momentum-continuation hold rather than a fresh breakout.
VWAP anchor ~$147.50 ~est. Expected opening range $144-$153. Modest long lean.
Support: $144 (VWAP ~est.), $140 (round number). Resistance: $153 (near-term high ~est.), $158 (extension ~est.).
Sources: Desk watchlist (Opening Range Breakout list).
No dedicated headline this morning; AWS remains a direct read-through beneficiary of the same AI-cloud-demand story lifting Oracle, Nebius and CoreWeave.
Best-available acceptable-sector fill for a thin gapper day; broad market strength and sector rotation into tech/comm. services (both +0.4-0.7% today) support the modest gap.
VWAP anchor ~$252 ~est. Expected opening range $247-$259. Modest long lean.
Support: $247 (VWAP ~est.), $240 (round number). Resistance: $259 (near-term high ~est.), $265 (extension ~est.).
Sources: finviz.csv scan (Mag7 exempt).
Bloomberg’s Big Take overnight: Microsoft plans to more than triple data-center capacity, adding 26 gigawatts of compute by 2032 — a direct, explicit capex catalyst even though the pre-market gap itself is modest.
Same AI-capex-accelerating theme as ORCL/NBIS/CRWV, at mega-cap scale; Beta is estimated near/slightly below 1.0, so this is a lower-beta, catalyst-driven fill rather than a high-momentum breakout name.
VWAP anchor ~$493 ~est. Expected opening range $486-$503 (near the desk’s $500 price-range cap — watch closely). Modest long lean.
Support: $486 (VWAP ~est.), $478 (round number). Resistance: $503 (near-term high ~est.), $510 (extension ~est.).
Sources: finviz.csv scan (Mag7 exempt), Bloomberg Morning Briefing (Big Take).
Copart posted a Q4 revenue beat and announced a deal to acquire ACV Auctions for $10.50/share, consolidating its position in the vehicle-auction/salvage marketplace. Second-largest pre-market gap of any name on today’s scan (+7.12%), behind only Oracle.
Hard M&A + earnings-beat catalyst on real scanner-confirmed volume. Note this is a low-beta (0.45), tight-ATR ($1.12) name relative to the rest of the list — a cleaner, lower-volatility long than the 3-5x beta names above it, useful for balancing overall book risk.
VWAP anchor ~$30.40 ~est. Expected opening range $29.60-$31.90 given the modest ATR. Long bias above VWAP.
Support: $29.60 (VWAP-1ATR ~est.), $28.70 (pre-gap base ~est.). Resistance: $31.90 (VWAP+1ATR ~est.), $33 (round number ~est.).
Sources: Pre-Market Bull Gappers I scan, Benzinga Premarket (“Why Is Copart Stock Gaining Friday?”).
Research Themes
AI Capex Beats the Doubters
Oracle’s blowout cloud guide (Q1 FY27 cloud revenue guided +58-64%) and Microsoft’s plan to triple data-center capacity (+26GW by 2032) argue the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating, not slowing — directly countering the “AI boom is nearing an end” thesis a rival desk floated overnight.
Sources: MarketWatch, Bloomberg Big Take, CNBC Pro.
Oil-Shock Inflation Trade
Iran-war escalation, Houthi-Saudi fighting near the Strait of Hormuz, and record $6+/gallon diesel are the direct drivers of today’s CPI anxiety and the 10Y’s run at 5%. Energy is the only red sector even as crude pulls back from Thursday’s spike; Bloom Energy stands out as a domestic power-security beneficiary that also rides the AI-power-demand theme.
Sources: Bloomberg Morning Briefing, CNBC.
“Face-Ripper Rally” Setup — CPI Verdict: Mixed
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s setup needed a clean downside CPI surprise. The actual print was mixed: headline in line (+3.4% YoY, +0.4% MoM) but core hot (+0.3% MoM vs. +0.2% expected). That tempers, but doesn’t kill, the reflex-rally case — treat this as a lower-conviction version of the setup and size accordingly on the highest-beta names.
Sources: MarketWatch Need to Know, Mace News (CPI flash).
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Mon, Sep 14 | Quiet calendar day. No major scheduled US releases — watch for Gulf-states/Iran headlines on the Strait of Hormuz talks reportedly being arranged for next week. |
| Tue, Sep 15 | Empire State Mfg. Index & Retail Sales (Aug.) First real read on whether high gas/diesel prices are crimping consumer spending ahead of the Fed decision. |
| Wed, Sep 16 | FOMC Rate Decision + Chair Warsh Press Conference The week’s main event. Markets pricing 67-71% odds of a 25bp hike, an unusually hawkish setup driven by oil-led inflation fear. |
| Thu, Sep 17 | Weekly Jobless Claims & Housing Starts Standard cadence releases; watch housing starts for early read-through on higher-for-longer mortgage rates. |
| Fri, Sep 18 | Existing Home Sales Closes out a heavy data week that started with today’s CPI and ends with the first full post-FOMC session. |
Farewell Tip
CPI is out and it’s mixed — in-line headline, hot core. That’s not the clean “face-ripper” trigger Tom Lee wanted, so don’t size up into the open expecting one. Let ORCL, CRWV and NBIS print their opening-range high/low first; if they hold gains through the first 15 minutes despite the hot core number, that’s real conviction worth following. Keep AXTI and BE on a tight leash given their 4x+ beta — size down, not up, on the biggest movers today.