TRDX Daily US Market Briefing ⬆ BULLISH
Updated 9:00 AM ET · Jackson Hole Week
8 of 11 sectors green. Technology and Industrials lead as chip names attempt to stabilize ahead of Wednesday’s Nvidia print. Energy is the clear laggard (−0.97%) as crude sells off to a one-week low despite fresh Iran sanctions — the market is reading the sanctions as less disruptive to supply than feared. Basic Materials also lags as gold/silver cool slightly off all-time-high territory.
- 📈 Futures (ES1! +0.45%, NQ1! +0.91%, YM1! +0.55%, RTY1! +0.73%): All four major index futures green — broad-based risk-on confirmation heading into the open. +20 pts
- 😌 VIX at 15.81 (−0.19%): Sub-16 print keeps the fear floor low, though largely unchanged from Monday’s chip-driven wobble. +8 pts
- 🛢️ Crude at a one-week low (MCL1! $82.03, −3.51%): Traders are shrugging off fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran as “not as forceful as feared” — geopolitical risk premium unwinding is a disinflationary, risk-on signal. +8 pts
- 📉 10Y Yield at 4.664% (−0.77%): Yields easing gives growth and high-beta names more room to run into the open. +7 pts
- 🤖 Nvidia’s 7-Day Losing Streak: Cumulative −7.5% into Wednesday’s after-close print is capping enthusiasm in mega-cap semis and creating two-sided positioning risk. −8 pts
- 😐 CNN Fear & Greed: 55 (Greed) — constructive but cooler than last week’s extreme-greed readings, consistent with pre-earnings, pre-Jackson-Hole caution. +8 pts
Sources: TradingView (ES1!, NQ1!, YM1!, RTY1!, VIX, US10Y charts, Aug 25 2026) · CNBC (oil, Nvidia) · CNN Fear & Greed Index
Tuesday opens in the shadow of two dominant storylines: Nvidia’s earnings print Wednesday after the close, and the ongoing Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Nvidia shares fell for a seventh consecutive session Monday (cumulative −7.5%, its longest losing streak since 2022) as institutions de-risked high-beta AI hardware ahead of the print — even though 59 of 62 analysts remain Buy-rated and consensus calls for ~$92B in revenue and $2.09 EPS (~97% YoY growth). That de-risking is the main drag on an otherwise green tape.
On the geopolitical front, Treasury Secretary Bessent detailed the administration’s new Iran sanctions package Monday, and crude has fallen to a one-week low ($82.03 WTI, $87.56 Brent) as traders concluded the measures were less aggressive than feared and unlikely to disrupt near-term supply. Separately, the U.S.–Canada tariff dispute remains live — Canada is weighing retaliatory tariffs after the weekend’s 50% U.S. levy on Canadian goods took effect, a slow-burn risk for cross-border industrials and autos rather than a today-moving catalyst.
Gold and silver are consolidating just off recent highs (MGC1! $4,693, SIL1! $67.97) after a blistering multi-week run, and the 10-year yield easing to 4.664% is a tailwind for growth and small-cap names (RTY1! +0.73%, the best-performing index future this morning). The standout thematic complex today is AI infrastructure supply constraints — an indium phosphide (InP) substrate shortage is driving structural repricing across the optical components chain (AXTI, AAOI, COHR), while AI cloud capex names (NBIS, CRWV) continue to post outsized earnings beats. Today’s list also carries two trader-directed names outside the scanner: NVDA, a mean-reversion long into Wednesday’s earnings, and SPCX, a recovery play on its NVIDIA orbital-AI-compute partnership. With Fed Chair Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote landing Friday — 19 days ahead of the September FOMC decision — expect positioning to build through the week, but today’s setup favors long-side breakout continuation over mean reversion.
Market regime is BULLISH. S&P 500 E-mini futures at 7,704 (+0.45%), Nasdaq E-mini at 29,370 (+0.91%), Dow E-mini at 53,784 (+0.55%), and Russell 2000 E-mini at 3,023 (+0.73%) all confirm broad participation. Filtering LONG setups only today. Today’s Top 10 Movers are built primarily from the Pre-Market Gappers II scanner (07:00–09:00 ET) — every qualifying name on that list carries a Beta above 1.0, a real catalyst, and 5-minute RVOL between 3.8×–6.6×. Two names were swapped in at the trader’s direction: NVDA replaces BE as a contrarian oversold-bounce/earnings-anticipation long, and SPCX replaces IREN as a recovery/ORB setup — both sourced from research rather than the scanner, and both flagged as such in their mover cards. The two Gappers II names left out of the Top 10 (INTC, RGTI) are carried in Secondary Movers below with the reasoning for their exclusion. Nvidia’s pre-earnings de-risking is now a direct long thesis in this list rather than just a crosscurrent — but it remains the single biggest two-way risk on the board into Wednesday’s close.
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Week | Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Kansas City Fed’s annual gathering continues with regional Fed presidents on panels discussing inflation trajectory and fiscal imbalances. Fed Chair Warsh’s keynote lands Friday — the week’s dominant Fed risk event. | — | — | MED |
| 1:00 PM | Treasury Iran Sanctions Detail Follow-Through Treasury Secretary Bessent’s new economic-pressure package on Iran, announced Monday, continues to be digested. Market has already concluded the measures are less supply-disruptive than feared — watch for any escalation headlines intraday. | — | — | LOW (digested) |
| Background | Canada Tariff Retaliation Risk Canada is weighing retaliatory tariffs after the weekend’s 50% U.S. levy on Canadian goods took effect (~5% of Canadian trade, ~6% of U.S. consumption). Slow-burn risk for autos/industrials, not an intraday mover today. | — | — | LOW |
| After Close | Intuit (INTU) Earnings One of 42 companies reporting today; not a pre-market catalyst for today’s watchlist. The week’s real earnings event is Nvidia tomorrow after the close. | — | — | LOW |
No earnings on today’s calendar are driving pre-market action in the watchlist. Intuit (INTU) and roughly 40 other names report today but none intersect today’s scanner. All eyes are on Nvidia’s print tomorrow (Wed Aug 26) after the close, with Marvell (MRVL) and IREN both reporting Thursday Aug 27 — both already Top 10 names today on pre-earnings positioning.
NVDA fell for a 7th straight session Monday (cumulative −7.5%, longest losing streak since 2022) as institutions trim high-beta AI hardware exposure ahead of the print. Consensus: ~$92B revenue, $2.09 EPS (~97% YoY). 59/62 analysts rate it Buy. This is the single biggest swing factor for the entire semiconductor and AI-infrastructure complex (MRVL, SMCI, AAOI, NBIS, CRWV) through Wednesday’s close.
A Taipei industry report flagged the most severe InP shortage on record; 2-inch InP wafer prices are up 76% and 3-inch wafers up 78% year-to-date as Q4 pricing is set to rise another 10%+. AXT (AXTI) — which just signed an $87M capacity-reservation deal with Lumentum — and Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) are the cleanest equity expressions of a shortage that is re-rating the entire optical components supply chain feeding AI data-center interconnects.
WTI (MCL1!) −3.51% to $82.03 and Brent (BRN1!) −3.29% to $87.56 as traders concluded Monday’s Treasury-detailed Iran sanctions package is less supply-disruptive than the market had priced. Lower energy input costs are a modest tailwind for consumer and industrial names; Energy is today’s weakest sector as a result.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first major address as chair at Jackson Hole on Friday, landing 19 days before the September FOMC decision. Regional Fed presidents are on panels through the week; any hawkish surprise on rate path or QT pace is the week’s biggest tail risk to the current low-VIX, easing-yield backdrop.
SPCX is holding well above its $135 IPO price on a Moderate Buy consensus (~$223 target) and a newly announced NVIDIA orbital-AI-computing partnership. Now the 7th-largest company in the world by market cap, it offers dual exposure to the space-launch and AI-infrastructure themes in one name.
A record InP substrate shortage (2-inch wafers +76%, 3-inch wafers +78% YTD, Q4 pricing +10%+) is structurally repricing the optical-components chain feeding AI data-center interconnects. AXTI’s Lumentum deal ($87M in deposits) and AAOI’s record Q2 print are the two cleanest equity expressions; COHR and LITE offer secondary exposure to the same squeeze.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (AXTI InP shortage) · 24/7 Wall St (Nomura wafer pricing) · StockTitan (AAOI Q2 2026)
NBIS, CRWV, and IREN are all posting triple-digit revenue growth and raising capex/contract targets simultaneously — NBIS’s $5B convert raise, CRWV’s Hudson River Trading deal, and IREN’s Microsoft data-center acceptance are three independent confirmations of the same demand cycle. MRVL and SMCI supply the memory/server hardware underneath all three.
Sources: Nebius Newsroom · CoreWeave Investor Relations · The Motley Fool (IREN) · Benzinga (MRVL)
Bloom Energy’s record quarter and 5x Brookfield financing expansion confirm that AI data-center power constraints are a durable, earnings-backed theme rather than a speculative narrative. Grid-scale and behind-the-meter power names remain a live secondary way to play the same capex cycle.
Sources: Seeking Alpha (BE Q2 2026) · 24/7 Wall St (BE Mizuho upgrade, Brookfield expansion)
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | ATR | Beta | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $87.26 | +3.70% | 2,033K | $6.39 | 3.44 | By far the largest absolute pre-market volume on the scanner (2M+ shares) and RVOL clears 4×, but the narrative is genuinely mixed — CPU market share at a three-decade low and the $23B equity raise sits underwater versus the current price. Trade the bounce off Monday’s −3.12% close, not the long-term story; kept out of Top 10 on conviction, not liquidity. |
| RGTI | Rigetti Computing, Inc. | $16.37 | +2.75% | 248K | $1.27 | 4.25 | Riding the same quantum-computing sector beta as IONQ but with no distinct company-specific catalyst found today, and an ATR of just $1.27 — the thinnest range in the entire scanner. IONQ is the stronger, better-catalyzed way to play this theme. |
| Date | Event / Key Item |
|---|---|
| Wed Aug 26 |
Nvidia Earnings — After Close The week’s single biggest event. Consensus ~$92B revenue, $2.09 EPS (~97% YoY). Ends (or extends) NVDA’s 7-session losing streak and will set the tone for the entire AI-infrastructure complex (MRVL, SMCI, NBIS, CRWV, AAOI) into Thursday’s open. |
| Thu Aug 27 |
MRVL & IREN Earnings + Jobless Claims + Durable Goods Two of today’s Top 10 names report. Durable goods orders will be read as a referendum on the AI capex thesis broadly. Weekly jobless claims round out the labor-market check. |
| Fri Aug 28 |
PCE Inflation + Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole Keynote The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge lands the same morning as Warsh’s first major address as chair — 19 days ahead of the September FOMC. A benign PCE plus a measured Warsh tone would extend the rally; a hot PCE or hawkish surprise risks a sharp reversal into the long weekend. |
| Mon Sep 1 |
Labor Day Holiday — Markets Closed Post-holiday session begins the countdown to the September FOMC meeting (~Sep 16–17). Expect thinner end-of-August liquidity into the close of this week. |
Farewell tip: AAOI has both the biggest fundamental beat and the highest 5-minute RVOL (6.63×) on today’s board — let it lead the AI-optics complex and use a reclaim of the pre-market high (~$109) as your trigger. NVDA is today’s highest-risk, highest-reward name: it’s a genuine oversold bounce candidate sitting on major support, but it’s also the one stock whose reaction into Wednesday’s close can swing the entire AI complex — size it smaller than the rest of the list and let a clean reclaim of $209–$212 do the confirming, not hope.