TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
NEUTRALupdated 9:55 AM ET / 6:55 AM PT
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: 7 of 11 sectors green, led by Industrials, Basic Materials and Technology; Healthcare and Consumer Staples are the only sectors showing meaningful red. No single sector is running away — this is a broad, unspectacular grind higher rather than a narrow momentum spike.
Market Bias
- Futures (+2): S&P futures +0.08%, Nasdaq +0.25%, Dow -0.19% — no strong directional push either way this morning.
- VIX (+10): 14.51 (-0.89%), sitting near multi-month lows — low fear, complacent positioning into the open.
- Newsletter tone (+8): Reuters, CNBC and Stocktwits all led with Thursday’s S&P 500 record close on cooling July PPI and a broad semiconductor/memory rally (SanDisk +15%, Micron +5.6%, Marvell +5%, Intel +4.9%).
- CNN Fear & Greed (+8): 62 (Greed) as of Thursday’s close.
- Offsetting risk (-10): 10Y yield at 4.65% near cycle highs, an “indefinite” US naval blockade on Iran stoking oil-supply risk, and a Fed under Chair Warsh still internally divided (9-3 hold in July) all cap upside conviction.
Sources: CNBC, TradingKey, Benzinga (Fear & Greed)
Overall Economic Summary
The tape is riding a cooling-inflation, AI-capex story into Friday. Thursday’s July PPI print came in unexpectedly flat/soft (final demand goods -0.7% m/m for a second straight month, energy -3.1%), which pushed yields down intraday and sent the S&P 500 to a fresh closing record near 7,799. The rally was led almost entirely by semiconductors and memory — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped over 2%, with SanDisk (+15%), Micron (+5.6%), SK Hynix (+5.9%), Marvell (+5%) and Intel (+4.9%) doing the heavy lifting. That’s the dominant thread carrying into today’s session and directly informs two of our five Top Movers (AAOI, AXTI), both AI-optics/substrate suppliers riding the same wave with their own earnings beats layered on top.
Offsetting the good inflation news, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh remains visibly split: the July 28-29 FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents wanting a quarter-point hike. The 10-year yield has nonetheless climbed to 4.65%, near cycle highs, even as equities print records — MarketWatch flagged this bond/equity divergence directly (“can that defiance last?”). Separately, the US has escalated its posture on Iran, with Defense Secretary Hegseth saying the naval blockade on Iranian ports can continue indefinitely; roughly 50 laden tankers are now idling in the Gulf and the IEA is flagging a ~1.8 million barrel/day global shortfall this quarter. Brent and WTI are both firm (~$87 and ~$81) on that risk premium, and gold is holding above $4,400, up more than 10% on the month as a hedge against both the supply shock and rate-cut expectations.
Today’s macro focus shifts to Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET, consensus +0.3% m/m) and preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET, consensus 54.1, down from 55.2) — both will shape whether the cooling-inflation/still-resilient-consumer narrative holds into next week’s Fed minutes and the Target/Walmart/Nvidia earnings runway. Sector-wise, Industrials, Materials and Technology are leading pre-market breadth while Healthcare and Consumer Staples lag — consistent with a market still willing to pay up for growth and cyclicals over defensives.
Market Sentiment
Futures are essentially split down the middle this morning — S&P 500 futures +0.08%, Nasdaq 100 futures +0.25%, Dow futures -0.19% — which keeps today’s regime call at NEUTRAL. Filtering both long and short setups today, prioritizing hard stock-specific catalysts first rather than leaning on index direction. The tone under the hood is still constructive (VIX near cycle lows at 14.51, Fear & Greed at 62/Greed, semis leading), so today’s qualifying setups skew long on the strength of individual catalysts (index inclusion, contract wins, earnings-driven upgrades), with one clean short/fade candidate where a stock has clearly overextended into yesterday’s news.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Retail Sales (Jul) | +0.3% MoM | +0.2% | HIGH |
| 8:30 AM | Core Retail Sales ex-Autos (Jul) | +0.2% MoM | -0.2% | HIGH |
| 10:00 AM | U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug, prelim) | 54.1 | 55.2 | MED |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories (Jun) | ~est. | ~est. | LOW |
Today’s Earnings
No major earnings scheduled for today (Friday, Aug 14). Birkenstock (BIRK) reported Thursday and is the main earnings-reaction name in today’s movers (see Secondary Movers). Attention now turns to next week’s retail earnings from Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT), ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) headline report on Aug 26.
Key Events Today
US–Iran Naval Blockade / Hormuz Tensions
Defense Secretary Hegseth reaffirmed the blockade on Iranian ports can continue “indefinitely.” ~50 laden tankers are now idling in the Gulf/Gulf of Oman, and the IEA is flagging a ~1.8M bbl/day global shortfall this quarter. Keep energy names (XLE) and oil-sensitive shippers on watch for headline risk in both directions.
Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment
First real look at July consumer spending plus a preliminary August sentiment read. A soft-but-resilient print keeps the cooling-inflation/soft-landing narrative alive; a hot beat could revive rate-hike chatter and pressure the semis/growth trade that’s leading today.
RDDT Joins the S&P 500
Reddit replaces AvalonBay Communities (AVB) in the index. Expect continued index-fund positioning flow into Monday’s close — the single biggest hard catalyst in today’s Top 5.
Trump Public Schedule
The public schedule feed was not returning a live, current-day read at the time of writing (stale cache). No confirmed high-impact remarks to flag for the 9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET session — treat as low-confidence and monitor headlines directly.
Top 5 Movers
S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Reddit will join the S&P 500 effective before the open Tuesday, Aug 18, replacing AvalonBay Communities (AVB). Shares jumped as much as 11% in after-hours trading Thursday on the news.
Index inclusion forces mechanical passive/index-fund buying ahead of the effective date — one of the cleanest hard catalysts on the board today. It follows a strong Q2 (revenue +61% YoY), though shares had faded after-hours on that report due to flat sequential US user growth.
VWAP anchor near $156-158; expected opening range $155-$162; 20/50-day MAs rising with price above both (200-day well below, uptrend intact); ATR(14) $11.06 implies a wide expected daily range. Bias: long into index-flow week.
Support: $153 (Thursday close), $148 (post-earnings gap-fill level). Resistance: $162 (Thursday after-hours high), $170 (round-number/psych level).
Breaking out of a short re-accumulation range on the index-inclusion catalyst — early markup.
Q2 revenue +86% YoY, fifth straight record quarter, back to non-GAAP profitability on AI datacenter optics and CATV strength. Raymond James raised its price target to $178 from $151 on Aug 11. Pearland, TX campus is expanding by ~400,000 sq ft for 800G/1.6T optics production.
Directly levered to today’s dominant tape theme — the AI memory/optics/semiconductor rally (SanDisk +15%, Micron +5.6%, Marvell +5%, Intel +4.9%, SOX +2.07% Thursday). AAOI is a pure-play AI-datacenter-buildout name with capacity constrained by demand, not orders.
VWAP anchor ~$128-$130; expected opening range $126-$136 given the outsized $15.84 ATR. Stock has ripped from a $94.32 close (Jul 31) into the $120-$130s. Bias: long, trend-continuation with wide two-way volatility.
Support: $120 (recent breakout shelf), $109 (B. Riley price target / prior consolidation). Resistance: $136 (recent spike high), $151-$178 (analyst price-target zone).
Q2 EPS $0.19 vs. $0.07 est., revenue $47.6M vs. $34.1M est. Q3 guide of $0.30-$0.32 EPS / ~$66M revenue, well above Street. Needham upgraded to Buy ($90 PT); Wedbush reiterated Outperform ($93 PT). Record indium phosphide revenue of $30.7M, backlog above $100M, and a multi-year Lumentum supply deal through 2031.
Same AI-optics/semiconductor-substrate theme as AAOI — the two names confirm a tradeable sector theme today (see Research Themes) on the back of the broader memory/semi rally.
VWAP anchor ~$77-$78; expected opening range $74-$81 (Thursday traded $74.80-$80.87). ATR(14) of $10.32 signals outsized daily-range potential. Bias: long with the theme.
Support: $74.80 (Thursday low), $68.68 (Aug 3 breakout close). Resistance: $80.87 (Thursday high), $90-$93 (analyst price-target zone).
Q2 revenue $206.17M, a quarterly record (+300% YoY), though an adjusted loss of $0.29/share (vs. -$0.09 est.) knocked shares -9.4% Thursday. Backlog is expanding on new commercial and national-security program awards.
Bouncing off Thursday’s earnings-day flush. Underlying momentum is still supported by the Aug 4 L3Harris/Space Development Agency award (18 spacecraft for missile tracking, +7% that day) and a broader space-stocks rally — ASTS and RKLB are each up 28-29% in the first half of August on Space Force contract wins.
VWAP anchor ~$17-$17.60; expected opening range $16.50-$18.50; ATR(14) $1.55 — a smaller-dollar range but volatile relative to price. Bias: long, dip-buy into theme continuation.
Support: $16.50 (Thursday post-earnings low), $15.80 (recent swing low). Resistance: $18.50 (pre-earnings level), $20.00 (psych round number).
Robotaxi footprint expansion into Miami adds to the autonomous-ride-hailing rollout, alongside continued Full Self-Driving progress. China EV sales climbed for a ninth straight month in July (+38% YoY), giving the delivery/demand story fresh legs.
Stock is trying to stabilize after a weak month — Thursday’s +3.80% move put shares back above the 20-day MA ($331.07) while they remain below the 50-day ($372.71), so this reads as a recovery bounce inside a broader range, not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Robotaxi optimism plus China strength are the two legs supporting the bounce.
VWAP anchor ~$338-$340; expected opening range $332-$346; 20-day MA $331.07 (reclaimed), 50-day MA $372.71 (resistance overhead). Bias: long on continuation above the 20-day, but respect the 50-day as the level that confirms an actual trend change.
Support: $331.07 (20-day MA), $325.24 (Thursday’s low). Resistance: $341.64 (Thursday’s high), $372.71 (50-day MA).
Research Themes
AI Datacenter Optics & Memory Rally
Thursday’s cooling PPI print reignited the AI-capex trade, and memory/optics suppliers led the tape — SanDisk +15%, Micron +5.6%, Marvell +5%, Intel +4.9%, with the Philly Semi Index +2.07%. AAOI and AXTI are pure-play optical/substrate beneficiaries riding fresh earnings beats, capacity expansions and multi-year supply deals into the same wave.
Tickers: AAOIAXTIMUMRVLINTC
Sources: TradingKey, FX Leaders, CNBC
Space & Defense Contract Momentum
A wave of Space Force, SDA and DOE contract awards — Kratos’ Javelin seeker deal and counter-UAS IDIQ, Intuitive Machines’ L3Harris missile-tracking award, Rocket Lab’s $397M threat-tracking satellite contract — is driving a broad space/defense bounce off July’s rout. ASTS and RKLB are each up 28-29% in the first half of August.
Tickers: LUNRKTOSRKLBASTS
Sources: Kalkine, Foreign Policy Journal, TradingView/Stocktwits
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | $41.00 | -4.02% | 1.27M | Short/fade setup. Thursday’s Q3 print beat on revenue (+15% cc) and raised FY26 guidance, sending shares +17% to $42.92 despite a $0.03 EPS miss. Today’s pre-market pullback looks like profit-taking after the outsized post-earnings pop. Deprioritized consumer sector. |
| UMAC | Unusual Machines, Inc. | $27.24 | +16.71% | 749.9K | Drone/UAS components maker — ties into today’s broader defense/counter-UAS contract theme. Note: this gap exceeds the standard ±15% filter threshold (Beta 4.35, ATR $2.47, RVOL 5m 2.84x), included here at trader request rather than by default screen. |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $485.62 | +0.54% | — | Announced plans for a ~$5B investment-grade bond raise to fund AI/server buildout; guided H2 2026 server revenue growth of 80%+ and data-center growth >100% in 2027, backed by 1GW+ commitments from OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic. Not a big % gapper, but a heavy AI-capex news day. |
| NBIS | Nebius Group N.V. | $267.33 | +4.06% | — | Extending its post-earnings run (two-day gain of ~32% into Wednesday) — Q2 revenue +454% YoY on the AI cloud segment, annualized run-rate revenue up to $3.0B. Consensus Strong Buy, 12-month PT $312.67. Capex intensity ($5.66B in the quarter) is the main overhang. |
| GLW | Corning Incorporated | $165.40 | +4.40% | — | AI-datacenter fiber/optical connectivity demand — multiyear hyperscaler agreements in its Optical Communications segment — continuing to drive the stock after a Q2 EPS beat ($0.78 vs. $0.75 est.). Same AI-optics tailwind as AAOI/AXTI in today’s Top 5. |
Sourcing note: BIRK and UMAC come from Scanner Results I (Pre-Market Gappers); Scanner Results II/III were not uploaded this run. UMAC’s +16.71% gap exceeds the standard ±15% filter and BRUN (+19.2%) remains excluded on the same basis; VERA (Beta 0.97) stays excluded under the 1.0 beta floor. AMD, NBIS and GLW were added at trader request — AMD’s price/day-change is from a live news wire (Benzinga, 8:59 AM ET), NBIS and GLW figures were supplied directly by the trader; none of the three have Pre-Market Gappers scanner volume data available, so that column is left blank rather than estimated.
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Mon, Aug 17 | Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) Regional Fed manufacturing read; markets open normally. |
| Tue, Aug 18 | RDDT joins the S&P 500 Effective before the open, replacing AvalonBay Communities (AVB) — passive-flow event. |
| Wed, Aug 19 | Housing Starts / Building Permits (Jul); ZIM Q2 earnings Housing data plus a scanner name reporting. |
| Thu, Aug 20 | Weekly jobless claims; Existing Home Sales (Jul); FOMC Minutes Minutes from the July 28-29 meeting where the Fed held on a 9-3 vote. |
| Fri, Aug 21 | Flash PMIs (S&P Global Mfg/Services, Aug) Early read on August activity. |
| Week of Aug 24 | Target (TGT) & Walmart (WMT) earnings; Nvidia (NVDA) reports Aug 26 Consumer-health read into the market’s biggest single AI-capex earnings event. |