TRDX Daily US Market Briefing ▲ BULLISH
Filtering LONG setups only today · Growth over Value
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
● Updated 5:15 AM PT
● Updated 5:15 AM PT
Sector Heatmap
Technology
XLK
+0.93%
Basic Materials
XLB
+0.89%
Industrials
XLI
+0.56%
Financials
XLF
+0.24%
Comm. Svcs.
XLC
+0.22%
Utilities
XLU
+0.13%
Cons. Disc.
XLY
+0.12%
Real Estate
XLRE
+0.12%
Energy
XLE
-0.13%
Cons. Stap.
XLP
-0.17%
Healthcare
XLV
-0.24%
9 of 11 sectors in the green. Technology leads on dual earnings blowouts (CRWV +18%, NBIS +16%). Defensive rotation (Healthcare, Cons. Staples) modest red. Breadth strongly bullish.
Market Bias
80
📈 Greed
- ▲ Futures: ES +0.29% / NQ +0.74% / YM +0.15% → +15 pts
- — VIX 15.39: Low-fear zone (15–20 band) → 0 pts
- ▲ Earnings Catalyst: CRWV +18% / NBIS +16% blowouts fuel AI narrative → +7 pts
- ▲ CNN Fear & Greed: 61 (Greed) → +5 pts
- ▲ 10Y Yield: -0.72% to 4.66%, bond rally supports growth → +3 pts
Score: Base 50 + 30 component pts = 80 · Sources: TradingView charts, CNN F&G, Benzinga
📊 ES1! / NQ1! Technical Outlook
ES1! making higher highs off early-Aug wick sweep near 7,300; price trading above all key MAs. NQ1! wick sweep near 29,577.50 resolved; reclaiming discount zone. Both charts bullish continuation bias.
ES Support: 7,640 / 7,530
ES Resistance: 7,800 / 7,820 (ATH)
NQ Support: 29,577 / 29,000
NQ Resistance: 30,000 / 30,975 (ATH)
YM: 53,959 — approaching 54,884 high
RTY: 3,043 — CHoCH confirmed bullish
Combined Implication: Both ES and NQ reclaiming from discount → long bias confirmed. Maintain long-only posture until either loses 7,530 (ES) or 29,000 (NQ).
Key Market Stats
ES1! Futures
7,770
+22.75 (+0.29%)
NQ1! Futures
29,844
+218.25 (+0.74%)
YM1! Futures
53,959
+79 (+0.15%)
RTY1! Futures
3,043
+7.6 (+0.25%)
VIX
15.39
+0.12 (+0.79%)
10Y Yield
4.660%
-0.034 (-0.72%)
DXY
99.774
-0.038 (-0.04%)
Gold (MGC1!)
4,468
+27.2 (+0.61%)
WTI (MCL1!)
83.57
+0.37 (+0.44%)
Brent (BRN1!)
89.16
+0.25 (+0.28%)
Macro Watch
📉 10Y yield -0.72% to 4.660%: Bond rally removes rate headwind for growth/tech. Historically, when 10Y drops >50bps from highs while growth names beat earnings, the follow-through can be violent to the upside.
💥 Silver +2.26% • Gold +0.61%: Metals catching a bid alongside equities — risk-on + inflation hedge signal. Dollar softness (DXY -0.04%) amplifying commodity move.
Overall Economic Summary
Wednesday is frontloaded with a dual-catalyst setup: a sweeping AI infrastructure earnings blowout overnight (CoreWeave and Nebius both crushed estimates in pre-market) colliding with the July CPI print dropping at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus expects headline CPI at 3.4% YoY (+0.2% MoM) and Core CPI at 2.5% YoY (+0.2% MoM). A cool or in-line print should supercharge today’s gap-up momentum — particularly in rate-sensitive AI-growth names — while a hot print risks reversing the pre-market bid, especially in names that haven’t opened yet.
The AI infrastructure supercycle thesis just got a massive validation. CoreWeave’s $104 billion revenue backlog (up 246% YoY) and Nebius’s $582M revenue (+454% YoY) with positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time confirm that hyperscaler demand for GPU compute is not slowing. This lifts the entire AI supply chain: chips (AMD, NVDA, MRVL), interconnects and photonics (COHR, AAOI), cloud platforms, and BTC/energy proxies (IREN). Super Micro’s fiscal Q4 beat and blockbuster Q1 guide ($14.5-15.5B vs $11.82B est) adds another layer of validation — AI server demand is pulling through the entire hardware stack.
Key risk event: Coherent (COHR) reports earnings after market close today. Expectations are high following Jensen Huang’s recent photonics shout-out at Computex and the China data center import ban narrative. A beat from COHR could extend the photonics/AI-interconnect rally into Thursday. The bond market is co-operating: 10Y yields pulling back -72bps toward 4.66% removes the single biggest headwind for high-multiple growth names. DXY softness compounds the tailwind.
Market Sentiment
Today’s regime is BULLISH — filtering LONG setups only. ES1! futures +0.29% to 7,770 (just above the +0.25% trigger threshold), NQ1! +0.74% to 29,844, and Dow +0.15% to 53,959 confirm the green open. The overnight catalyst is unambiguous: CoreWeave’s Q2 earnings blowout (+$2.58B revenue, $104B backlog, raised FY guidance) lit up the AI infrastructure complex in after-hours, and Nebius’s +454% revenue print with first-ever positive EBITDA arrived as the market opened for pre-market trading. Super Micro’s +9.5% pre-market print after its own Q4 beat adds a third pillar. VIX at 15.39 remains in the low-fear zone — institutions are not hedging aggressively. This is a tape where momentum names with hard catalysts get chased at the open; the first 30 minutes will be about price discovery, then look for pullback entries on VWAP reclaims.
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | CPI (July 2026) Headline & Core Consumer Price Index — most-watched inflation print of the month |
+0.2% MoM 3.4% YoY |
-0.4% MoM 3.5% YoY |
HIGH |
| 8:30 AM | Core CPI (July 2026) Ex-food & energy — Fed’s preferred pulse check |
+0.2% MoM 2.5% YoY |
Flat MoM 2.6% YoY |
HIGH |
| After Close | COHR Earnings (Q4 FY2026) Coherent Corp. — AI photonics/interconnect key name |
~est. | — | HIGH |
| Thu Aug 13 | PPI (July 2026) Producer Price Index — second inflation read of the week |
~est. | — | MED |
| Fri Aug 14 | Retail Sales (July 2026) | ~est. | — | MED |
Today’s Earnings
CRWV CoreWeave
NASDAQ · Technology Services
Adj. EPS: -$1.03 actual vs -$1.20 est (BEAT) · Rev: $2.58B vs $2.56B est (BEAT)
The critical data point isn’t EPS — it’s the $104 billion backlog (up 246% YoY) and raised FY guidance to $12.4–13.2B. New enterprise customers Anthropic and Meta underline structural demand. Q3 guide of $3.45–3.60B well above street. This is the single biggest AI infrastructure print of Q2 earnings season.
NBIS Nebius Group
NASDAQ · Technology Services
Rev: $582.3M vs $576.7M est (BEAT) · Adj EBITDA +$236.2M (first-ever positive)
Revenue +454% YoY. AI cloud segment alone $389.7M (+841% YoY). Positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time — the company has crossed the profitability inflection point. The $27B Meta compute deal provides multi-year revenue visibility. Capacity target raised to 4GW for 2026.
SMCI Super Micro Computer
NASDAQ · Electronic Technology
Rev: $11.12B (+93% YoY, slight miss vs $11.26B) · Adj. EPS: $1.70 vs $1.59 est (BEAT)
The Q1 FY2027 guide is the headline: $14.5–15.5B versus the $11.82B analyst estimate — a 25%+ beat on guidance. This is what’s driving the entire AI server complex higher in pre-market. SMCI at +9.08% confirms the AI hardware buildout is accelerating, not decelerating.
COHR Coherent Corp.
NYSE · Electronic Technology
Q4 FY2026 — reporting tonight after close
Wall Street expects strong AI photonics demand driven by data center interconnect upgrades. Jensen Huang specifically highlighted photonic technology at Computex. A beat here could send COHR significantly higher in after-hours and set up a gap-up play Thursday. Pre-market at +5.76% already pricing in elevated expectations — manage risk going into close.
Key Events Today
🔥 July CPI Report
8:30 AM ET — HIGH IMPACT
The single most market-moving release today. Consensus 3.4% YoY headline, 2.5% YoY core. An in-line or cool print will pour gasoline on the AI rally — growth names levered to rate sentiment will accelerate. A hot print (>3.5% headline or >2.6% core) risks a sharp reversal, especially in names that have already gapped significantly.
🤖 CoreWeave + Nebius + SMCI Earnings Aftermath
Pre-Market / All Day
Three AI infrastructure names all beat expectations overnight, creating a coordinated positive catalyst for the AI hardware and cloud complex. This is a confirmation event, not just a single-name pop — watch for institutional rotation into the broadest AI picks as conviction increases across the sector.
📡 COHR Earnings (After Close)
4:05 PM ET AMC — HIGH IMPACT
Coherent is the AI photonics bellwether. With COHR already up +5.76% pre-market on sympathy with AI infrastructure names, the bar is elevated going into tonight. A beat could be a gamma-squeeze setup. Consider trimming pre-close if long, as options are pricing elevated IV today.
💰 AI Infrastructure Theme Confirmation Day
All Day
CRWV $104B backlog, NBIS $27B Meta deal, SMCI 25%+ guide beat — three independent datapoints validate that hyperscaler capex is not being cut. This is the most important theme of the session. Names adjacent to this buildout (MRVL custom ASICs, AAOI photonics, AMD GPUs) are all beneficiaries.
Top 5 Movers — LONG Setups Only (Bullish Regime)
CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc.
$90.32
+18.41%
⚡ Catalyst
Q2 2026 earnings blowout (BMO): Revenue $2.58B (beat $2.56B est, +~100% QoQ implied), Adj. EPS loss -$1.03 (crushed -$1.20 est). Revenue backlog $104 billion (+246% YoY) as of June 30, 2026. Raised FY2026 guidance to $12.4–13.2B. Q3 guide $3.45–3.60B well above street. New enterprise deals with Anthropic and Meta disclosed.
🧠 Why It’s Moving
CRWV is the pure-play neocloud — it rents GPU compute capacity to AI labs and enterprises at scale. The $104B backlog is the key number: it means 2+ years of revenue is already contracted at current prices, eliminating growth uncertainty. The Anthropic and Meta customer additions prove CRWV is not losing share to hyperscalers — it’s winning business the hyperscalers can’t fill fast enough. This is the kind of print that forces institutional upgraders off the sidelines and triggers position-building.
📍 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: Expect opening range $88–$95 (±5% around pre-mkt price). Prior close: ~$76.27 (implied from +18.41% gap). ATR(14): $7.36 — expect $5–10 intraday swings. Bias: Long on any VWAP reclaim after opening flush; fade the first 5-min candle if it opens above $94. Key breakout above $95 opens path toward prior ATH.
📏 Support & Resistance
Support: $88.00 (pre-mkt VWAP ~est.), $85.00 (gap fill level), $82.00 (prior resistance-turned-support). Resistance: $95.00 (round number / premium zone), $100.00 (psychological ATH territory).
Sources: Coindesk, Benzinga, Investing.com · Scanner: Pre-Market Gappers II CSV Aug 12 2026
NBIS
Nebius Group N.V.
$193.23
+15.84%
⚡ Catalyst
Q2 2026 earnings blowout (BMO): Revenue $582.3M (beat $576.7M est, +454% YoY). AI cloud segment $389.7M (+841% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at +$236.2M — the company’s first-ever profitable quarter on an adjusted basis. $27 billion, five-year compute deal with Meta Platforms provides long-term revenue floor. Capacity target raised to 4GW for 2026 (vs. 3GW in February guide).
🧠 Why It’s Moving
NBIS is CRWV’s closest comp — a European-headquartered neocloud pivoting hard into US AI infrastructure. The EBITDA profitability inflection is the narrative hook today: bears who doubted whether unit economics would ever work have their thesis broken. The Meta deal backstops the bull case. At $48.6B market cap with 454% revenue growth and an improving margin trajectory, multiple expansion remains on the table. The 5.35× 5-minute RVOL confirms institutions are actively buying the open, not just trading the gap.
📍 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: Opening range ~$188–$200. Prior close: ~$166.82 (implied). ATR(14): $23.42 — this name moves $15–25/day. Bias: Aggressive buyers will chase any opening dip toward $185–188; $200 is the psychological ceiling for today. Do not chase above $200 on Day 1 of a +16% gap.
📏 Support & Resistance
Support: $185.00 (VWAP ~est.), $178.00 (pre-mkt low area ~est.), $170.00 (gap fill). Resistance: $200.00 (psychological / round number), $210.00 (prior consolidation zone ~est.).
Sources: TradingKey, QuiverQuant, 247WallSt, Motley Fool · Scanner: Pre-Market Gappers II CSV
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
$474.32
+1.09%
⚡ Catalyst
SMCI Q4 FY2026 beat + blowout Q1 guide ($14.5–15.5B vs $11.82B est) lifts entire AI server/GPU complex. Super Micro uses AMD GPUs in AI server configurations — strong SMCI guidance is direct AMD order visibility. Combined with CRWV/NBIS confirming hyperscaler capex expansion, AMD as the #2 GPU supplier after NVIDIA is a direct beneficiary. AMD also benefiting from analyst focus on the “Advancing AI 2026” event as a key hardware catalyst.
🧠 Why It’s Moving
Three independent AI infrastructure prints (CRWV, NBIS, SMCI) have confirmed what AMD bulls have argued for months: hyperscaler GPU demand is not decelerating. AMD’s MI300X/MI350 series is winning enterprise workloads that NVIDIA cannot supply fast enough. At $474, AMD is well within the $15–$500 price range and remains one of the highest-conviction large-cap AI hardware longs. The pre-market bid is modest (+1.09%) but reflects a name that needed no specific catalyst — the sector news is enough.
📍 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: First 5-min VWAP near $475–476. 200-day MA: ~$390 (~est.) — well below. 50-day MA: ~$450 (~est.). ATR: ~$13 (~est.). Bias: Long above $472 VWAP; target $490 on momentum. Stop below $465.
📏 Support & Resistance
Support: $470.00 (prior session high), $460.00 (50-day MA area ~est.). Resistance: $485.00 (recent supply zone ~est.), $500.00 (round number / psychological).
🎯 Wyckoff Phase
Markup phase — breaking above prior consolidation on sector-wide catalyst volume.
Sources: TipRanks, Investing.com · Watchlist: TRDX Scanner Aug 12 2026
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
$217.50
+0.97%
⚡ Catalyst
CRWV’s $104B backlog and NBIS’s AI cloud +841% growth directly validate NVIDIA’s data center GPU business. SMCI’s blowout guide confirms AI server rack demand. NVDA is the toll-taker of the AI infrastructure buildout — every GPU hour rented by CoreWeave or Nebius flows through NVIDIA’s supply chain. Jensen Huang’s Computex endorsements of photonics and Marvell further underline NVDA’s ecosystem-building strategy.
🧠 Why It’s Moving
NVDA is the AI toll-taker: when AI infrastructure spend accelerates, NVDA wins. Today’s three-header confirmation (CRWV/NBIS/SMCI) removes the “AI capex peak” bear thesis for another quarter. At $217.50, NVDA is well within the trader’s preferred price range and remains the highest-liquidity expression of AI infrastructure upside. With 101M shares daily average volume, NVDA absorbs institutional buying without gap instability. The +0.97% pre-market gap is modest, suggesting room to run on open.
📍 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: First-candle VWAP near $218–220. 200-day MA: ~$145 (~est.) — far below. ATR: ~$6–8 (~est.). Bias: Long above $218 VWAP; target $225–$228 intraday. CPI print at 8:30 is the wildcard — hold through print only if you’re comfortable with gap risk.
📏 Support & Resistance
Support: $215.00 (prior close region), $210.00 (gap fill). Resistance: $225.00 (recent swing high ~est.), $230.00 (ATH territory ~est.).
Sources: TipRanks, Investing.com · Watchlist: TRDX Scanner Aug 12 2026
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)
$133.29
+0.91%
⚡ Catalyst
Argus upgraded SPCX to Buy from Hold with a $160 price target, citing early payback on AI-infrastructure spending. Ron Baron disclosed a $25 billion investment, projecting SpaceX could reach a $40 trillion valuation in 10–15 years. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund disclosed a 0.05% stake (~1.2 billion kroner). Pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition expected to close Q3 2026 adds a near-term corporate catalyst.
🧠 Why It’s Moving
SPCX is the only publicly traded direct SpaceX equity vehicle — giving retail and institutional traders access to what may be the most valuable private company on Earth. The Argus Buy upgrade at $160 implies 20% upside from current levels and represents institutional recognition of SpaceX’s AI-infrastructure pivot (Starlink for AI compute distribution). The $25B Baron commitment signals mega-institutional conviction. Yesterday’s -3.93% session dip sets up today’s base-building and rebound narrative. This is the reserved anchor slot.
📍 Key Daily Price Levels
VWAP anchor: ~$133.50 area. Argus PT: $160 (long-term target). Prior close: ~$138.74 (before yesterday’s -3.93% session close). Bias: Long on hold above $132; reclaim of $135 opens path toward $140 gap fill. Stop below $130.
📏 Support & Resistance
Support: $130.00 (round number / recent demand), $126.00 (prior consolidation). Resistance: $138.74 (yesterday’s pre-dip level), $145.00 (prior swing high), $160.00 (Argus target).
Sources: 247WallSt, StockTitan, Yahoo Finance · Watchlist: TRDX Scanner Aug 12 2026
Research Themes
🤖 AI Infrastructure Supercycle — Triple Confirmation
Three independent AI infrastructure names all beat estimates overnight (CRWV $104B backlog +246% YoY, NBIS +454% revenue, SMCI +25% above Q1 guide). This is the clearest single-day confirmation that hyperscaler GPU compute demand is not decelerating. Institutions that were waiting for more data now have it. Expect rotation into the broadest AI infrastructure picks across the day as research upgrades follow.
Play via: CRWV · NVDA · AMD · NBIS · DELL · HPE · VRT
Sources: Coindesk, TradingKey, TipRanks
💡 AI Photonics & Custom Silicon — Jensen’s Supply Chain
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang highlighted photonic technology at Computex (Coherent, Lumentum, Corning) and called Marvell the “next trillion-dollar company.” The Trump administration’s reported China data center import ban amplifies the domestic photonics narrative. COHR reports tonight AMC — already pricing in elevated expectations (+5.76% pre-market). MRVL and AAOI are sympathy plays on the same thesis.
Play via: COHR · MRVL · AAOI · LITE · POET · CIEN
Sources: Yahoo Finance, TradingView News
⚡ BTC Proxy + AI Cloud Pivot — The Dual-Narrative Play
IREN exemplifies the most powerful narrative in the space-tech-mining complex: a former Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI cloud with $2.8B in new multi-year contracts. BTC proxies (RIOT, IREN, MARA) are rallying this morning alongside the AI cloud theme. IREN’s dual identity — crypto miner + AI cloud provider — gives it two separate catalysts simultaneously. BTC prices rising and AI compute contracts expanding creates a unique risk/reward profile.
Play via: IREN · RIOT · MARA · CLSK · HUT · CORZ
Sources: CryptoTimes, SeekingAlpha, Yahoo Finance
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Pre-Mkt Gap | Pre-Mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | IREN Limited | $39.75 | +8.05% | 1.47M RVOL 5min: 4.09× |
BTC proxy + AI cloud pivot. $2.8B new contracts, 480MW capacity target 2026. Earnings Aug 27. Beta 3.34, ATR $3.99. Strong sympathy with CRWV/NBIS AI buildout theme. |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | $328.57 | +5.76% | 180K RVOL 5min: 4.27× |
Earnings AMC tonight — elevated expectations. Jensen Huang Computex shoutout on photonics. China data center import ban tailwind. ATR $34.74 — wide intraday swings expected. Risk: IV crush post-earnings. |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | $212.31 | +3.36% | 287K RVOL 5min: 5.62× |
Jensen Huang named MRVL the “next trillion-dollar company” at Computex. AI ASIC custom chip leader for hyperscalers. ATR $18.36. Beta 1.75. RVOL 5.62× confirms strong institutional interest pre-open. |
| AAOI | Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. | $134.33 | +2.72% | 254K RVOL 5min: 5.72× |
AI photonics bounce. Rosenblatt PT $220. 1.6T fiber order catalyst ongoing. RVOL 5.72× = highest pre-market relative activity in this list. ATR $16.08. Beta 2.66. Sympathy with COHR/MRVL photonics theme. |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer, Inc. | $31.60 | +8.58% | 3.19M RVOL 5min: 6.28× · RVOL 1D: 2.50× |
Q4 FY2026 earnings beat: Rev $11.12B (+93% YoY), adj. EPS $1.70 vs $1.59 est. Q1 guide $14.5–15.5B obliterated the $11.82B est — the number driving the entire chip complex today. ATR $2.22. Beta 2.62. Highest pre-market volume in scanner (3.19M). Primary catalyst name for AI server buildout theme. |
Session Playbook
8:30 AM ET — CPI Print
📊 Wait Before Trading
Do NOT enter positions before the 8:30 CPI print. Cool print = accelerate all longs. Hot print = reduce pre-market exposure, wait for 5-min base formation. The gap itself (CRWV +18%, NBIS +16%) will not be undone by inflation data, but momentum plays like AMD/NVDA may see sharp retracements on a hot print.
9:30 AM — Open Auction
💥 Price Discovery Phase
Expect volatile first 5 minutes for CRWV and NBIS — these are +15-18% gap names with wide opening spreads. Wait for the first 5-min candle to close, then look for VWAP reclaim entries. AMD, NVDA, SPCX will be cleaner opens with tighter spreads.
9:30–10:30 AM — Momentum Window
🚀 Primary Entry Zone
First 60 minutes is the highest-conviction window for breakout longs. Prioritize: AMD and NVDA on VWAP reclaim after any initial dip. MRVL on first pullback to pre-market VWAP. SPCX above $135. Avoid chasing CRWV/NBIS in first 30 minutes — ATR swings will be extreme.
10:30 AM–12:00 PM — Consolidation
⏸️ Selective Entries Only
Mid-morning fade is typical for large gap-up days. Look for orderly pullbacks with declining volume to intraday support levels. CRWV and NBIS base-building in this window could set up afternoon continuation. Avoid adding to losing positions.
2:00–3:30 PM — Pre-Close Setup
📡 COHR Earnings Watch
COHR reports AMC tonight. Options vol will surge pre-close as traders position. If you’re holding COHR into close, consider trimming 50% to reduce binary risk. Watch AAOI and MRVL for sympathy moves if COHR sentiment shifts. RIOT/IREN may see late-session BTC-driven moves.
3:30–4:00 PM — Power Hour
⚡ Momentum Continuation or Fade
On strong AI theme days, power hour often sees a final push as momentum algos pile in. Watch ES1! for direction: above 7,770 VWAP into close = add; below 7,720 = reduce. Take partial profits on any overnight positions ahead of close given COHR binary event.
Overnight Intelligence
🌏 Futures & Index Overnight
ES1! +0.29% to 7,770 — S&P 500 e-mini holding above 7,640 support after early-Aug wick sweep recovery
NQ1! +0.74% to 29,844 — NASDAQ 100 e-mini reclaiming above 29,577 wick sweep zone; tech leadership confirmed
YM1! +0.15% to 53,959 — Dow lagging; industrials/value names flat overnight
RTY1! +0.25% to 3,043 — Small caps participating; CHoCH confirmed bullish on daily chart
VIX 15.39 +0.79% — Minor uptick; still in low-fear zone. Institutions not hedging aggressively despite elevated growth names
🌏 Asia / Europe
Asia-Pacific: Subdued session. Japan markets closed for holiday. Hang Seng futures 25,966 vs last close 25,937 (+flat). ASX 200 futures 9,178 vs 9,232 (slight lag).
Europe: Trading higher; AI/tech names in Europe gaining sympathy from CRWV/NBIS pre-market prints
China data center import ban draft: Reported by Bloomberg — boosts domestic US photonics/interconnect names (COHR, MRVL, AAOI) at the expense of Chinese component suppliers
💰 Commodities & Macro
Gold (MGC1!) $4,468 +0.61% — Breaking out above $4,400; risk-on + inflation hedge simultaneous bid. Bullish structure intact per daily chart.
Silver (SIL1!) $66.40 +2.26% — Strongest commodity overnight; CHoCH confirmed bullish on daily. Metals complex broadly bid.
WTI Crude (MCL1!) $83.57 +0.44% — Oil recovering; Middle East tension narrative (Iran peace talks stalling). DXY soft = commodity tailwind.
Brent (BRN1!) $89.16 +0.28% — Approaching $90 psychological resistance. Energy sector lagging equities (-0.13%) despite oil strength.
10Y Yield 4.660% -0.72% — Biggest macro tailwind today. Bond rally compressing yields = growth/tech multiple expansion. DXY 99.77 (-0.04%) = weak dollar supports commodities and international earnings.
💱 Geopolitical & Policy
Iran nuclear: Peace talks stalled per reports, contributing to WTI +2.4% earlier in week. Risk premium remains in oil. Watch for any fresh Iran headlines intraday.
China trade: Trump administration drafting ban on US imports of new Chinese data center components — net positive for domestic photonics/AI infrastructure suppliers
Trump schedule: No confirmed market-hours speaking events flagged for August 12 (rollcall.com/factbase data inconclusive for today’s date)
Fed: No scheduled Fed speakers or meetings today. Market pricing ~2 rate cuts by year-end. Cool CPI print could increase cut probability and lift rate-sensitive growth names further.
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Wed Aug 12 Today |
CPI July 2026 (8:30 AM ET) · COHR Earnings AMC
Most important inflation print of August. COHR AMC could extend or reverse photonics rally. AI infrastructure blowout earnings dominate headlines all day.
|
| Thu Aug 13 |
PPI July 2026 (8:30 AM ET)
Second inflation read of the week. If CPI is cool today, a cool PPI tomorrow compounds the bull case. Watch COHR after-hours reaction to carry into Thursday session.
|
| Fri Aug 14 |
Retail Sales July 2026 (8:30 AM ET) · Consumer Sentiment UMich (10:00 AM ET)
Consumer health data. Strong retail sales would confirm economic resilience; weak numbers might raise recession flags. UMich sentiment could show inflation expectations data relevant to Fed policy.
|
| Week of Aug 17 |
FOMC Minutes Release (expected mid-week) · Jackson Hole Prep
Fed minutes from the July meeting will be parsed for rate-cut signals. Jackson Hole symposium likely late August — Powell’s keynote will set the tone for September FOMC decision.
|
| Thu Aug 27 |
IREN Earnings (Q4 FY2026)
IREN reports earnings — first look at how quickly AI cloud revenue is ramping post-pivot. $2.8B contract wins will be the key metric. Watch for capacity utilization and margin commentary.
|
| Mon Sep 8 |
ORCL Earnings (FY Q1 2027)
Oracle’s first earnings after the credit downgrade concerns from aggressive AI data center capex. Will be a major test of whether Oracle’s AI infrastructure buildout is showing ROI. EPS consensus $1.67.
|
🎯 Today’s Closing Trade Tip
On massive gap-up days driven by earnings (CRWV +18%), the best trades are not the gap itself — they’re the names that barely moved overnight but are 2nd-derivative beneficiaries. MRVL (+3.36%) and AAOI (+2.72%) are still “cheap” relative to the AI infrastructure story they just got confirmed. Buy the quiet neighbors, not the loudest house on the block.