TRDX Daily US Market Briefing NEUTRAL
Updated 8:50 AM ET
Futures Chart Technical Analysis
Next-candle bias: NEUTRAL, lean bullish — the breakout structure is intact and price is basing just under the range high rather than fading it, but at +0.05% there is no directional edge from the futures tape itself today. A clean push through 7,796–7,800 opens a retest of 7,820.25; loss of 7,763 risks a pullback toward the mid-7,700s.
Support: 7,763.00 (session low) → ~7,720 (VWAP zone, ~est) → 7,530.25 (Wick Sweep / Long Lifeline)
Resistance: 7,796.25 (session high) → 7,800 (round number / Premium edge) → 7,820.25 (range high)
Next-candle bias: NEUTRAL, lean bullish — NQ is the day’s relative leader among the four contracts (+0.10% vs ES +0.05%, YM −0.07%, RTY −0.11%), which lines up with the AI-datacenter-optics complex (AAOI, COHR, AXTI, HPE, SMCI) running hard pre-market. A break of 29,984–30,000 opens the Premium band; loss of 29,788 risks a retest of 29,577.50.
Support: 29,788.50 (session low) → 29,577.50 (Wick Sweep, reclaimed) → 28,694.75 (prior Wick Sweep)
Resistance: 29,984.00 (session high) → 30,000 (psychological) → 30,250 (Premium band base)
Next-candle bias: NEUTRAL — the day’s laggard among the four contracts, consistent with INTC’s −3.34% pre-market drag on the blue-chip/semiconductor complex and no clear Financials catalyst this morning. Holding the 54,000 round number and the 53,600 shelf keeps the structure intact; a break below 54,000 opens 53,600.
Support: 54,000 (session low / round number) → 53,600 (BOS shelf) → 52,804 (Wick Sweep)
Resistance: 54,170 (session high) → 54,400 (~est) → 54,884 (all-time high / Premium boundary)
Next-candle bias: NEUTRAL — small caps are the session’s other laggard alongside YM, giving back a touch of last week’s strength. Holding above 3,016.3 keeps the broader structure intact; loss of 3,031 opens a retest of the Wick Sweep, while a reclaim of 3,044–3,060 resumes the push toward 3,068.4.
Support: 3,031.2 (session low) → 3,016.3 (Wick Sweep) → ~2,920–2,960 (CHoCH zone, ~est)
Resistance: 3,044.6 (session high) → 3,060 (~est) → 3,068.4 (range high)
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: Energy leads on oil’s +1.7–1.8% pre-market bid (Hormuz/Houthi risk), with Technology and Materials modestly green on the AI-datacenter-optics and rare-earth complexes. Communication Services is roughly flat — Alphabet’s early AI-leadership-driven dip has largely reversed intraday. Five sectors lack a reliable pre-market ETF print this morning and are marked pending rather than guessed. Figures marked ~est are directional estimates built from today’s single-name movers, not direct sector-ETF quotes.
Market Bias
- Futures (0 of ±20): ES +0.05%, NQ +0.10%, YM −0.07%, RTY −0.11% — all four contracts inside the neutral band. No directional edge from the index tape itself.
- VIX (0 of the 15–20 bucket): 15.44, +3.69% — still historically low but ticking up on the unresolved Hormuz/Houthi standoff; lands in the neutral 15–20 bucket rather than the <15 bullish bucket.
- Newsletter tone (+5 of ±10): Mixed-to-constructive. MarketWatch and CNBC’s Santoli both frame the tape as bullish (S&P eyeing fresh records, “bad-news-is-good-news” jobs read), while Reuters and Bloomberg stay neutral on the unresolved Hormuz standoff and the Fed-Cook fight.
- Stocktwits (+2 of ±5, ~est): Retail chatter skewing positive around the AI-optics complex (AAOI, COHR, SPCX); not independently verified this morning.
- CNN Fear & Greed (+7 of ±10): 64 (Greed) — elevated but not extreme, consistent with a market grinding toward records without euphoric excess.
Overall Economic Summary
The Strait of Hormuz remains the market’s live geopolitical wildcard heading into the week. Yemen’s Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery at dawn Sunday, with a fire started and extinguished by Aramco’s own firefighting teams — a reminder that the regional risk is still kinetic, not just diplomatic. On the negotiating track, Iran and Oman are reportedly nearing a deal on managing new Hormuz shipping lanes, VP Vance says the US is seeking to “maximize” oil and gas flow through the strait, but Iranian FM Araghchi is publicly denying Tehran is in direct talks with Washington, and Trump himself is signaling a shift toward economic pressure rather than fresh military strikes. Net effect: unresolved, mildly bullish for oil (WTI +1.78% to $79.57, Brent +1.74% to $85.00 this morning) and a source of intraday headline risk that can cut either way without warning.
On the domestic macro side, Friday’s July jobs report is still the dominant data point in traders’ heads: nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 against an $83,000 consensus, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000 and the three-month average growth rate down to just 20,000/month. That soft print is feeding a “bad news is good news” read across the newsletters — strategists see it reinforcing Fed rate-cut hopes even as Q2 S&P 500 earnings track roughly +51% YoY. Layered on top is a fresh Fed-independence flashpoint: Trump has given Fed Governor Lisa Cook three weeks to answer mortgage-fraud allegations or face dismissal, even though the Supreme Court has already ruled against that kind of removal. Wednesday’s July CPI print (headline expected to hold above 3%) is the release that actually settles the rate-path debate — everything between now and then is positioning.
The AI-infrastructure earnings backdrop remains the market’s structural tailwind: JPMorgan raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000 from 7,800, and CNBC’s Santoli flagged that roughly 20 points of Q2’s 47% S&P earnings growth came from unrealized Alphabet/Amazon gains on their Anthropic and SpaceX stakes alone — a market that’s leaning harder than usual on a handful of AI-adjacent balance sheets. That’s also generating the first real “topping behavior” chatter (NDR’s Tim Hayes, broker David Snyder) after July’s momentum-stock/semiconductor unwind, where DeGraaf notes $100 invested in long-short tech momentum at the June peak is now worth just $61. None of that changes today’s setup — Fear & Greed at 64 (Greed) and a flat futures tape argue for a stock-specific, catalyst-driven session rather than a trend day in either direction.
Market Sentiment
I am calling this session NEUTRAL and filtering both long and short setups on stock-specific catalysts first today. S&P 500 E-mini futures are +0.05% at 7,783.50, Nasdaq 100 E-mini +0.10% at 29,864.50, Dow E-mini −0.07% at 54,114, and Russell 2000 E-mini −0.11% at 3,038.2 — all four inside the ±0.25% threshold, so there is no macro tailwind or headwind to lean on today. That means today’s setups are being built name-by-name: the AI-datacenter-optics complex (AAOI, COHR, AXTI, HPE, SMCI) is running hard on its own earnings and supply-agreement news, SPCX and RKLB are extending the post-lockup space re-rating into RKLB’s own earnings print tonight, GOOGL has reversed off its AI-leadership-headline dip to trade green on the cloud-growth/capex story, and INTC gives back ground on sector overhang. I’m trading both sides where the catalyst supports it, sized to conviction rather than to a directional index bias I don’t actually have this morning.
Key Market Stats
Futures, VIX, yield, dollar and crude marks read directly from TradingView 1D charts (ES1!/NQ1!/YM1!/RTY1! ~8:47 AM ET; VIX ~8:08 AM ET; US10Y ~9:18 AM ET; MCL1! ~8:48 AM ET; BRN1! ~9:58 AM ET; DXY ~10:51 AM ET). Gold and Bitcoin (~$65,200, roughly flat overnight) are ~est from Fortune / general web sources, not a direct chart read this morning.
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All day | Treasury Bill Auctions | — | — | LOW |
| All day | Employment-trend data (routine aggregator releases) | — | — | LOW |
A genuinely light calendar day — no high-impact US releases are scheduled for Monday, August 10. July CPI is the next major catalyst, landing Wednesday, August 12 at 8:30 AM ET (headline expected to hold above 3%). Trump schedule: no confirmed high-impact Remarks / Press Conference / Interview between 9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET was posted as of this writing (rollcall.com/factbase updates near midnight ET) — re-check closer to the open.
Today’s Earnings
B · Barrick Mining Corp. BMO
Reported before the open with a modest beat on the adjusted line. Deprioritized sector for this trader’s profile (traditional miner) — watch only for tape-wide gold/materials sympathy given gold’s push above $4,342.
MNDY · monday.com Ltd. BMO
Gapping down hard despite a positive day-over-day change, consistent with a “beat-but-sells-off” pattern on softer SMB-channel commentary. Not on today’s long/short lists given the trader’s growth/preferred-sector focus, but a useful volatility/short-squeeze watch given the size of the gap.
AXSM · Axsome Therapeutics BMO
Acceptable-tier biotech with hard catalyst timing confirmed. Watch for guidance commentary on the CNS pipeline into the call.
FERG · Ferguson Enterprises BMO
Industrial distributor — deprioritized sector, included for calendar completeness only.
RKLB · Rocket Lab Corporation AMC
Today’s headline earnings event for this trader’s book — RKLB is both a Secondary Mover and the anchor of the Space & Launch theme below. The print follows a 7-session, 41% winning streak and a fresh $397M US Space Force contract; watch for Neutron-timeline and bookings-conversion detail on the call.
HIMS · Hims & Hers Health AMC
Acceptable-tier growth name with a scheduled catalyst tonight; not currently on the scanner lists but worth a post-close glance for tomorrow’s gap list.
Also reporting today per calendar aggregators: BTDR (Bitdeer — time/EPS unconfirmed, verify via IR), SPG, ASTS (both AMC).
Key Events Today
Strait of Hormuz & Houthi Attack on Aramco
Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery early Sunday; the resulting fire was extinguished by Aramco’s own teams. Iran and Oman are reportedly nearing a deal on managing new Hormuz shipping lanes, VP Vance says the US wants to “maximize” oil/gas flow through the strait, but Iran’s FM denies direct US talks and Trump is signaling a shift toward economic pressure over military strikes. Oil is bid on the uncertainty (WTI +1.78%, Brent +1.74%) — live two-way headline risk all session.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook — 3-Week Ultimatum
Trump has given Fed Governor Cook three weeks to answer mortgage-fraud allegations or face dismissal, despite the Supreme Court having already ruled against that kind of removal. A fresh Fed-independence flashpoint layering onto Wednesday’s CPI print and September’s cut-odds debate — worth watching for any headline that moves rate-sensitive names intraday.
Alphabet AI-Leadership Shakeup
Chief scientist Jeff Dean, a 27-year Google veteran, has departed alongside several other senior AI leaders — unsettling sentiment even after a strong Q2 print. GOOGL gapped weak on the headline but has since reversed to trade positive (+0.76%) as buyers favor the cloud-growth/capex story — now classified LONG in the Top 5 below. Still worth monitoring for follow-on departures or replacement announcements, since the headline risk remains live in both directions.
AI-Datacenter-Optics Complex Running Hot
AAOI, COHR, AXTI, HPE and SMCI are all sharply higher pre-market on a mix of Q2 earnings momentum (AAOI record revenue, AXTI’s new long-term indium-phosphide supply deal with Lumentum), pre-earnings positioning (COHR reports Wed, SMCI’s preliminary margin disclosures), and a broader AI-hardware sector rebound. This is today’s single biggest theme — see the Top 5, Themed Movers and Secondary Movers sections below.
Top 5 Movers
User-specified list for today: SPCX, GOOGL, AAOI, HPE, COHR — all 5 long, per live trader confirmation that GOOGL has reversed off its AI-leadership-headline dip to trade +0.76%. Volume and pre-market change figures are from the 7:00–9:30 AM ET scanner pulls and TRDX watchlist; GOOGL’s quote reflects intraday action after the open.
Research Themes
AI Datacenter Optics / Photonics Supercycle
AAOI’s record Q2 revenue and capacity-constrained commentary, COHR’s pre-earnings run into Wednesday’s print, and AXTI’s new long-term indium-phosphide supply agreement with Lumentum are compounding into a sector-wide optics story rather than three isolated moves.
Tickers: AAOI, COHR, AXTI, LITE, ANET
Space & Launch Sector Re-Rating, Post-Lockup
SPCX, RKLB and LUNR are all extending gains after Friday’s “Wall Street all-clear” on the SpaceX lockup unlock. RKLB reports Q2 AMC today with a 7-session, 41% winning streak behind it and a fresh $397M Space Force contract in hand — the sector’s confirmation print of the week.
Tickers: SPCX, RKLB, LUNR, ASTS
Rate-Cut Repricing & Fed Independence Fight
July payrolls at −23K vs +83K expected, plus a fresh Trump-vs-Cook showdown (3-week ultimatum), keep a September cut in play even as Wednesday’s CPI is the real decider. High-duration growth and crypto proxies remain the cleanest expression if the data breaks further dovish.
Tickers: PLTR, MSTR, IREN, RKLB
Themed Movers
Four confirmed names moving together pre-market: AAOI +4.90%, COHR +3.76%, HPE +4.96%, SMCI +3.05%. Record/beat earnings (AAOI) and pre-earnings positioning (COHR, SMCI) are compounding a sector-wide AI-hardware/optics rebound rather than trading on isolated news.
Institutional confirmation: no clean SOXX/XLK pre-market print available this morning (Data pending) — the five-name cluster itself is today’s confirmation signal.
Three confirmed names: SPCX +4.49% (+15.83% on day, 242M+ full-day volume Friday), RKLB +3.00% (Q2 earnings AMC today), LUNR +2.01% pre-market. The “Wall Street all-clear” on SpaceX’s lockup unlock is still being digested three sessions later, lifting the whole complex into RKLB’s own earnings catalyst tonight.
Institutional confirmation: elevated relative volume across all three names (RKLB 5-min RVOL 5.20×, SPCX 3.66×) is the closest available proxy for ETF-level confirmation this morning.
Secondary Movers
| Ticker | Company | Price | Gap % | Pre-mkt Vol | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | $48.42 | −14.77% | Data pending | Short setup. Extending a steep 2026 decline — down roughly 41–46% YTD and ~80% off its October high — after last Thursday’s Q2 report showed a $48.5M loss overshadowing the company’s first-ever revenue. Sector-wide nuclear/SMR distribution continues. |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Corporation | $82.83 | +3.00% | 836.6K | Q2 earnings AMC today (5 PM ET call); 7-session, 41% winning streak; fresh $397M Space Force contract. ATR $6.68, Beta 3.67. |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer, Inc. | $31.13 | +3.05% | 1.38M | Preliminary gross-margin recovery to 15–17% and a record $60B AI order backlog disclosed ahead of its next print. ATR $2.28, Beta 2.62. |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | $59.17 | +2.86% | 115.1K | FDA backing for the mFlusiva flu vaccine in adults 50+ lifted shares ~8% Friday; continuing higher into Monday. ATR $4.09, Beta 1.45. |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | $101.65 | −3.34% | 2.88M | Short setup. Continued semiconductor-sector weakness / tariff overhang rather than an Intel-specific headline; no fresh company news found for today. ATR $8.09, Beta 3.29. |
Session Playbook
Let the first 15 minutes set the range on the outsized-ATR names (SPCX $11.66, COHR $34.18, AAOI $16.30). Don’t chase the initial print — wait for the ORB break with volume before committing size.
The most reliable window for the AI-optics longs (AAOI, COHR, AXTI, HPE, SMCI) to make their first leg. Use NQ holding above 29,864 as tape confirmation that the complex has room to run.
Volume thins through the middle of the day. Reduce size specifically on the INTC short — lower-beta, lower-ATR shorts chop harder and stop out more easily in a low-volume window than the high-ATR longs do.
Re-entry criterion is a reclaim of the 11:00 AM level on rising volume, not just a bounce. RKLB likely sees elevated volume into the afternoon ahead of its 5 PM ET print — that flow is tradeable, the print itself is not.
Where funds finish adjusting into the close on a catalyst-driven, non-trend day. Watch whether the AI-optics complex holds its gains into this window as the read on whether today’s move is being carried or faded into tomorrow.
COHR (Wed AMC) and RKLB (tonight AMC) both carry same-week binary earnings risk. RKLB especially — flat or materially reduced by the close regardless of intraday P&L, since holding a scanner-driven day trade through its own print isn’t a trade, it’s a bet.
1. VWAP is the stop on every Top 5 name — several are extended off the gap, so structure is thin and VWAP is the honest line. 2. This is a NEUTRAL day, not a BEARISH one — keep the INTC short secondary in size to the long-side book, which now spans SPCX, GOOGL, AAOI, HPE and COHR. 3. RKLB and COHR carry same-week binary earnings risk; size and flatten accordingly regardless of how the intraday trade is working.
Overnight & Pre-Market Intelligence
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Tue, Aug 11 | SMCI Q4 FY26 Earnings (AMC) Consensus ~$11B revenue, $0.68 EPS. The confirmation print for today’s AI-hardware rebound theme after preliminary disclosures showed margins recovering to 15–17% and a $60B AI order backlog. NY Fed Q2 Household Debt & Credit Report also due. |
| Wed, Aug 12 | July CPI — 8:30 AM ET HIGH The week’s key print — headline expected to hold above 3%. This is what actually settles the September rate-cut debate that today’s soft-jobs/Fed-Cook narrative is only positioning for. COHR reports fiscal Q4 AMC the same day (consensus EPS $1.43, +93.2% YoY) — a binary risk for anyone still long into the close. |
| Thu, Aug 13 | PPI (Headline & Core) + Initial Jobless Claims — 8:30 AM ET MED The inflation confirmation leg, plus a weekly labor read that will get more scrutiny than usual after Friday’s −23K payroll print. |
| Fri, Aug 14 | Retail Sales (Jul), Industrial Production, UMich Prelim MED The consumer-side counterpart to last week’s labor data, and the check on whether July’s job losses are showing up in spending. |
| Mon, Aug 17 | Start of next data week First full session to trade CPI/PPI’s read-through on rate-cut odds; watch for any follow-through in the AI-optics and space themes if this week’s earnings prints (SMCI, COHR, RKLB) land well. |
| Sep 15–16 | FOMC Meeting Rate-cut odds hinge on this week’s CPI/PPI prints and the unresolved Cook situation — the gap between market expectations and administration pressure for a larger cut is itself a source of volatility between now and then. |
On a NEUTRAL day with no index-level edge, the AI-optics cluster (AAOI, COHR, AXTI) already gapped hard pre-market — that move is partially spent. What isn’t spent is whichever of the three clears its opening-range high on the heaviest relative volume in the first hour; that’s the second vote, and it’s worth more than chasing the gap. And don’t carry RKLB or COHR through their own earnings tonight and Wednesday — a scanner-driven day trade isn’t a swing position, no matter how good it looks by 3:30 PM.