TRDX Daily US Market Briefing NEUTRAL
Updated 8:05 AM PT | Pre-Open
Support: 7,480 / 7,400
Resistance: 7,600 / 7,648
Wick sweep near 7,466 · BOS intact
Bias: Cautious long above 7,540
Support: 29,800 / 29,200
Resistance: 30,400 / 30,975
CHoCH flagged — chip rotation pressure
Bias: Neutral; watch chip names
Support: 52,000 / 51,600
Resistance: 53,105 / 53,300
BOS to upside confirmed · premium zone
Bias: Mildly long — relative strength
Support: 3,000 / 2,960
Resistance: 3,068 / 3,080
BOS confirmed · approaching all-time high
Bias: Long above 3,030 level
The dominant macro event today is the June Non-Farm Payrolls report at 8:30 AM ET — released a day early due to the July 4 market closure tomorrow. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 115,000 new jobs (Reuters puts consensus at 110K), a notable deceleration from May’s 172K print. The key wildcard: ADP’s private payrolls came in at only 98K Wednesday versus 120K expected, which adds genuine uncertainty to the headline number. A significant beat could revive rate-hike fears given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks in Portugal Wednesday; a miss would be bond-friendly and could push equities higher.
On the Fed front, Warsh told CNBC’s Sara Eisen that inflation remains “too high” and explicitly reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to delivering 2% price stability. However, he also acknowledged recent improvement in the inflation picture — language the market read as not outright hawkish. Fed futures still price in a rate hike by October, but softening labor data could shift that calculus. WTI crude’s continued decline to $67.32 (−1.84%) is providing a deflationary tailwind that Warsh may lean on in future communications.
The AI infrastructure narrative continues to diverge within the tech stack. Meta surged 8% Wednesday after reports it will build a cloud business selling excess AI computing capacity — following the hyperscaler playbook of Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure. This is bullish for AI platform providers like Palantir (who just landed a NVIDIA sovereign AI deal and U.S. Army contract) but creates new competitive pressure for established cloud players. Reuters highlighted that the SOX semiconductor index fell 6% Wednesday with “no obvious trigger,” a sign of profit-taking and portfolio rotation rather than a fundamental break.
In crypto, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60K level, driven by ETF flow stabilization hopes and the July Fed meeting outlook. Strategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Circle (CRCL) are all gapping higher 3–6% in pre-market as institutional crypto exposure normalizes. The USMCA trade pact was not renewed Wednesday — it now requires annual review — introducing fresh uncertainty for auto manufacturers. Trump Accounts (new minor savings vehicles from the “big beautiful bill”) launch this weekend, a minor positive for fintech platforms.
Regime call: NEUTRAL — ES1! futures are printing −0.03% and NQ1! −0.21% as of the 8:00 AM ET chart capture, both within the ±0.25% neutral band. This is a stock-specific morning, not a directional trend day — at least until the 8:30 AM NFP print resolves the uncertainty. Filtering long setups first today given the user’s long bias and the crypto/AI catalyst stack driving the Top 5 names.
S&P 500 futures: −0.03% | Nasdaq 100 futures: −0.21% | Dow futures: +0.09% (as per CNBC at 7:45 AM ET: S&P +0.06%, Dow +0.19%, NASDAQ −0.10%). The split between NQ lagging (chip rotation) and YM/RTY leading (value and small-cap catching a bid) is a notable breadth divergence. A strong NFP print (above 130K) would likely pressure bonds and pressure rate-sensitive tech, while a weak print (below 100K) could send risk assets sharply higher. Either way, the crypto and AI catalyst names today have stock-specific drivers that should outperform the index regardless of the macro print direction.
ES1! Bias
NQ1! Bias
Stock Selection Grid
Avoid: Pure semi plays without hard catalyst, broad NQ ETFs, crude-sensitive names
Light day for earnings given the shortened holiday week. No S&P 500 heavyweights report today. The next major earnings cluster begins the week of July 14 — JPMorgan Chase (July 14), Goldman Sachs (July 15), Netflix (July 16), and TSMC (July 17). Tempus AI (TEM) showed a −2.63% gap down in pre-market scan (100.5K volume, 5.36× RVOL) — watch for any surprise update or guidance commentary during market hours, though no formal earnings release is confirmed.
20-Day MA: ~$117.00 | 50-Day MA: ~$108.00 | 200-Day MA: ~$88.00
ATR(14): $6.73 — 1 ATR range: $119.00 → $132.46
Opening Bias: Long above $125.00; momentum continuation setup on any 5-min base above VWAP
Resistance: $128.25 (prior day high), $133.00 (analyst PT / psychological), $140.00 (next extension target)
20-Day MA: ~$82.00 | 50-Day MA: ~$75.00 | 200-Day MA: ~$60.00
ATR(14): $10.17 — 1 ATR range: $83.22 → $103.56
Opening Bias: Long on opens above $92.00 with BTC holding $59,500+; momentum trade only — no hold if BTC drops below $58,500
Resistance: $96.00 (recent pre-market high), $100.00 (key psychological), $105.00 (prior range high)
20-Day MA: ~$58.00 ~est. | 50-Day MA: ~$52.00 ~est.
ATR(14): $7.07 — 1 ATR range: $54.88 → $69.02
Opening Bias: Long above $61.50 on any 5-min VWAP hold; pullbacks to $60.00–$60.50 are high-probability long entries
Resistance: $64.00 (near-term extension), $67.00 (prior swing high ~est.), $70.00 (round number target)
20-Day MA: ~$98.00 ~est. | 50-Day MA: ~$88.00 ~est.
ATR(14): $6.49 — 1 ATR range: $102.16 → $115.14
Opening Bias: Long above $108.00 with BTC holding; aggressive momentum setup if HOOD breaks $110.00 on open
Resistance: $112.00 (near-term extension ~est.), $115.00 (ATR target), $120.00 (next round number)
20-Day MA: ~$148.00 ~est. | 50-Day MA: ~$135.00 ~est.
ATR(14): ~$9.00 ~est. — 1 ATR range: $150.24 → $168.24
Opening Bias: Long above $158.00 with BTC holding $59,500+; first target $163–$165 on momentum continuation
Resistance: $163.00 (near-term extension ~est.), $168.00 (ATR target ~est.), $175.00 (prior swing high ~est.)
Bitcoin staging its first meaningful recovery after its worst monthly performance in 2026 (−20.48% in June). The catalyst stack is aligning: ETF flow stabilization, Fed’s qualified hawkishness (acknowledged inflation improvement), weakening DXY (−0.28%), and institutional ARK buying across COIN, CRCL, and HOOD. The setup is NOT “buy everything crypto” — it’s specifically long the highest-quality, regulated, revenue-generating crypto ecosystem names with institutional backing. BTC holding $59,500 is the line in the sand. Bitcoin ETF flows data (CoinDesk: worst June ever at −$4.5B outflows) means any net positive flow day becomes a significant catalyst.
The AI narrative is bifurcating: the SOX semiconductor index fell 6% Wednesday as pure chip plays took profit, but AI platform companies with hard government wins and enterprise contracts are thriving. PLTR’s NVIDIA deal and Army NGC2 contract confirm that sovereign AI — secure, government-grade deployment — is the highest-margin frontier. OpenAI reportedly offering the U.S. government a 5% stake and Meta building cloud infrastructure to monetize AI compute both validate this theme. Palantir is uniquely positioned at the intersection of government trust and AI platform — the Army does not select vendors casually.
Today’s June Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET, consensus 110–115K) is the macro wildcard that will override most intraday setups for the first 30–60 minutes. ADP’s miss at 98K Wednesday sets up for a genuine surprise in either direction. Scenario A: NFP beats (130K+) → yields spike, DXY up, tech/crypto sell off — rotate to defensive/energy short-term. Scenario B: NFP misses (sub-100K) → yields drop, DXY down, BTC/growth stocks accelerate — the crypto and AI basket goes parabolic. Scenario C: In-line (105–125K) → market shrugs and returns to individual catalysts, which favors today’s Top 5 names. Watch the 8:35–8:45 AM window before entering any position.
🌏 Asia / Pacific
Asian shares declined Thursday following the U.S. SOX semiconductor index’s 6% drop Wednesday. South Korea (KOSPI) and Japan (Nikkei) saw sizeable pullbacks in chip and tech equipment makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Tokyo Electron all lower. The declines tracked the U.S. chip rotation despite no fundamental catalyst, suggesting systematic profit-taking after a strong Q2 for the sector.
The Japanese yen jumped sharply from Wednesday’s 40-year low as Bank of Japan intervention fears resurfaced. Reuters reported Japanese authorities are shifting to an “opportunistic” intervention strategy — targeting speculative short-yen positions without telegraphing in advance. DXY/JPY volatility is elevated.
🌍 Europe
Positive inflation surprise: Eurozone headline CPI came in at 2.8% for June, well below the 3.0% expected. This gives the ECB meaningful room to avoid further rate hikes now that energy prices are retreating. European equities reacted positively with modest green opens, though gains were tempered by the awaited U.S. NFP data.
Iran-U.S. talks concluded another round Wednesday with no meaningful progress toward a lasting peace agreement. The focus remained on maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and unfreezing Iranian funds — the initial agreement’s core issues. The stalemate is contributing to crude oil’s continued slide (WTI $67.32, −1.84%) as markets price in reduced supply disruption premium.
🛢️ Commodities & Macro
WTI Crude: $67.32 (−1.84%) — clear downtrend on 1D chart, making lower highs and lower lows. MCL1! chart shows accelerating bearish momentum with BOS down confirmed. Iran talks stalling removes near-term supply disruption risk; OPEC supply levels normalizing. Brent: ~$71/bbl (~est.).
Gold (MGC1!): $4,076.60 (−0.14%) — in broader downtrend from $4,914 peak. BOS down confirmed. Gold’s weakness signals mild risk-on sentiment and lower safe-haven demand. DXY: 101.13 (−0.28%) — pullback from recent BOS high; support at 100.50. Dollar weakness = mild tailwind for risk assets and Bitcoin.
📰 Geopolitical / Policy Overnight
OpenAI reportedly discussing offering the U.S. government a 5% ownership stake — reported by the Financial Times Thursday morning. If confirmed, this would be an unprecedented move linking sovereign AI governance to equity ownership and could accelerate the PLTR/government AI theme across the board.
USMCA Trade Pact: The U.S. confirmed Wednesday it will not renew the 16-year extension — requiring annual reviews. Ford CEO Jim Farley commented hoping for a “more level playing field.” This creates fresh tariff uncertainty for auto manufacturers (F, GM, STLA) but has minimal direct impact on today’s tech/crypto catalyst stack.