TRDX Daily US Market Briefing BULLISH
Updated 8:59 AM PT
▶ E-Mini Futures — Technical Outlook (1D)
ES1! · S&P 500 E-mini
BOS confirmed · Price reclaimed above 21-day MA · Wick sweep at 7,362 resolved
R: 7,491 / 7,600 (premium zone) S: 7,452 / 7,400 / 7,362 (wick)
Bias: Bullish continuation — needs hold above 7,450 into PCE
NQ1! · NASDAQ-100 E-mini
CHoCH confirmed · Upper trendline BREAK · AI chip rip on Micron
R: 30,219 / 30,400 / 30,800 (prior CHoCH high) S: 29,924 / 29,600 / 29,094
Bias: Strongly bullish — NQ leading ES by 3:1 today
YM1! · Dow E-mini
BOS confirmed · Lagging NQ significantly
R: 52,462 / 52,734 (premium high) S: 52,215 / 52,000 / 51,600
Bias: Neutral-bullish — value rotation absent today
RTY1! · Russell 2000 E-mini
BOS confirmed · Wick sweep 2,821 resolved
R: 3,028 / 3,041 (recent high) S: 3,010 / 2,960 / 2,921
Bias: Neutral — small-caps not participating today
Sector Heatmap
Breadth: 8 of 11 sectors advancing · Technology leading on Micron-driven AI chip rally · Energy lagging on Iran deal (WTI −1.24%) · Values ~est. based on pre-market futures and sector composition
Market Bias
46–55 Neutral · 56–70 Greed
71–100 Extreme Greed
Overall Economic Summary
The week of June 25 is being defined by a single data print: Micron’s fiscal Q3 FY2026 earnings, which came in at $41.5 billion in revenue — quadruple the year-ago figure — shattering every estimate on the board. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra confirmed HBM4 supply is sold out for all of 2026 under multi-year contracts, with $22 billion in customer cash deposits already collected and $100 billion in take-or-pay Strategic Customer Agreements locked in. Q4 guidance of ~$50 billion (vs. analyst estimates of $44 billion) is the clearest possible signal that the AI memory supercycle is not a story — it’s structural revenue. NQ futures are up 2.09% pre-market, the strongest single-day futures move in weeks, and every major semiconductor name is catching a bid.
The macro backdrop is constructively risk-on beyond the Micron print. Progress on the U.S.-Iran peace deal is driving WTI crude down 1.24% to $69.47, easing inflation concerns and boosting the margin outlook for AI infrastructure companies. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.40% — elevated but stable. Today’s May Core PCE release (8:30 AM ET), alongside Q1 GDP Final and May Durable Goods, is the key risk gate before the open. A PCE print in line with or below the April level of 3.3% YoY would be rocket fuel; a hot print would challenge the Micron-driven rally. Reuters’ headline framing — “chip outlook calms AI jitters; inflation data awaited” — captures the day perfectly.
Qualcomm’s Investor Day on June 24 added a second major catalyst: the $3.92 billion acquisition of Modular AI and a roadmap that targets $40 billion in non-handset revenue by 2029. The Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU and confirmed hyperscaler partnerships with Meta and Microsoft are reshaping the QCOM narrative from a mobile chip stock to a diversified AI silicon platform. This is not a one-day story — the Qualcomm pivot compounds the Micron moment and sets up a multi-week AI semiconductor re-rating cycle.
Market Sentiment
Regime call: BULLISH. Filtering LONG setups only today. S&P 500 E-mini futures +0.64% (7,475.50), Nasdaq-100 E-mini +2.09% (30,130), Dow E-mini +0.11% (52,339). NQ is leading ES by a 3:1 ratio — this is a textbook AI/semiconductor momentum day with no broad market participation required. The chart structure confirms: NQ completed a CHoCH and upper trendline break, ES confirmed BOS with the wick sweep at 7,362 fully resolved. Small-caps (RTY +0.11%) and value (YM +0.11%) are non-participants. Play the tech leaders. Manage PCE at 8:30 — if it prints hot, expect a brief flush that the bulls will buy.
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
Today’s Earnings
No other major earnings scheduled for today (June 25). Next significant cluster: Nike (NKE) and Constellation Brands (STZ) expected late June/early July.
Key Events Today
PCE Inflation Data — 8:30 AM ET
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for May lands at 8:30 AM — simultaneously with Durable Goods and GDP Final. April’s headline PCE was 3.8% YoY (up from 3.5%) and Core PCE was 3.3%, both above the Fed’s 2% target. A soft May print would supercharge the Micron rally; a hot print would create an immediate test of whether the AI trade can hold against rate-hike fears. Do not chase pre-PCE — wait for the 8:30 reaction to settle (typically 3–5 min) before entering.
SPCX Bond Settlement — June 26
SpaceX’s bond offering (which drew a record $89 billion in demand) settles tomorrow, June 26. Proceeds will fully retire the bridge loan from the June 12 IPO. This removes the last major technical overhang from the world’s largest IPO. Institutions locked out of the bond are rotating into SPCX equity as the settlement clears. Catalyst for continued SPCX strength into end of week.
Qualcomm Modular AI Integration Begins
Following the June 24 Investor Day, QCOM begins integration planning for the $3.92B Modular AI acquisition — a software-first AI platform company. Management guided for Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU shipments to a major hyperscaler in late 2026. This is QCOM’s most significant strategic pivot since the ARM licensing era and justifies a sustained re-rating at current levels.
SK Hynix US IPO Process Advancing
SK Hynix (Nvidia’s primary HBM supplier) announced plans to raise up to $29.4 billion through a US stock market listing — which would rank among the largest global listings ever. The move signals that AI memory suppliers view the US equity market as the optimal venue to fund next-generation HBM5/HBM6 capacity. Bullish for the entire AI memory ecosystem.
★ Top 5 Movers — Long Setups Only (BULLISH Regime)
CATALYST: SpaceX’s bond offering (proceeds settling June 26) drew a record $89 billion in demand, confirming overwhelming institutional confidence in SPCX at current prices. The stock wick-swept to an ATL of $147.11 on June 23 — just 13 days after a $225.64 all-time high — creating a textbook liquidity sweep setup. AI satellite computing thesis (AI1 satellites + compute on Starlink broadband) is an incremental catalyst beyond the core launch/Starlink business. Entire AI ecosystem lifting on Micron blowout provides the macro tailwind.
WHY IT’S MOVING: SPCX was aggressively oversold from its June 16 ATH ($225.64) through June 23 ATL ($147.11) — a -35% drawdown in 7 days, far exceeding any fundamental rationale. The $89B bond demand at yields implying ~$150+ equity value provided institutional confirmation of the floor. Bond settlement June 26 removes the bridge loan overhang entirely. NQ +2.09% is a direct rising-tide lift for this high-beta, high-narrative AI/space name. The largest IPO in history bottoming and recovering is a major institutional catalyst.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: Opening range anchor expected ~$158–163. VWAP will form near $157–160 given the pre-market range. Bias: Bullish. The key reclaim level is $161 (pre-market high) — a 5-min close above triggers the first continuation entry. 20-day MA ~est. $173 (too far above for today). Key psychological: $150 (IPO open), $165, $175.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $155 (pre-mkt base), $150 (IPO open price / hard floor). Resistance: $161 (pre-mkt high), $165, $175, $185 (near-term recovery target).
WYCKOFF: Stage D re-accumulation — wick sweep at $147 created spring; now in markup phase toward Phase E target ~$180–190.
CATALYST: Qualcomm Investor Day (June 24) unveiled: Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU entering hyperscaler shipments in late 2026; confirmed AI partnerships with Meta and Microsoft; $3.92B acquisition of Modular AI (software-first AI inference platform). Management set a target of $40 billion in non-handset revenue by 2029, nearly tripling the current mix. Combined with Micron’s blowout AI demand signal, the market is repricing QCOM as a diversified AI silicon platform, not a mobile chip company.
WHY IT’S MOVING: QCOM’s +10% gap is exceptional for a $208B market-cap name. Investor Days of this caliber — where management delivers a credible, numbered revenue diversification roadmap backed by named hyperscaler partnerships — typically produce multi-week sustained moves. The Modular AI acquisition is the first true software-layer deal for QCOM, addressing its Achilles heel vs. Nvidia. RVOL 3.45× confirms genuine institutional accumulation, not just retail hype. Micron’s AI demand data ($100B take-or-pay) independently validates QCOM’s data center TAM assumptions.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: Opening anchor ~$197–202. VWAP first print likely ~$198–200. ATR of $16.80 implies a daily range up to $180–215 conceivable. Bias: Strongly bullish. The opening range high (first 5-min candle) becomes the key breakout trigger. 50-day MA est. ~$178 (well below). Prior resistance ~$185 now becomes support.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $191 (day’s pre-mkt low), $185 (prior resistance/now support). Resistance: $203 (day’s pre-mkt high), $210, $215 (ATR target).
WYCKOFF: Stage C/D — breakout from base on high-conviction fundamental catalyst. Classic markup initiation.
CATALYST: Merck KGaA (Germany) announced an all-cash acquisition offer of $73.00 per share, valuing the deal at approximately $11.3 billion (€9.9B). The offer represents a 36% premium to recent trading prices. Both boards have approved the transaction; closing targeted for late 2026 to early 2027, pending regulatory review. Bio-Techne manufactures protein sciences consumables, instruments, and diagnostics for pharma, biotech, academic, and diagnostics markets — a strategic bolt-on for Merck KGaA’s life sciences division.
WHY IT’S MOVING: Pure M&A arbitrage play — stock at $58.88 vs. a firm, board-approved $73.00 cash offer. The ~$14 spread (~24%) reflects deal risk (regulatory/antitrust) and time value (6–9 months to close). RVOL 5.49× is strong, confirming arb desks and event-driven funds are actively accumulating. For the breakout trader, this is a multi-week momentum setup as the stock tracks toward the deal price. The hard catalyst removes ambiguity — there is no “what if” risk on the catalyst itself, only execution risk.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: Stock should trade in a compressed range today, anchored between $57–62 as arb desks price deal risk. VWAP will establish near $59–60. Bias: Bullish toward deal convergence. The key level is $60 (psychological); a 5-min close above opens the path to $62–65 near-term. ATR of $2.44 is thin — this is a controlled arb drift, not a momentum rip.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $57 (pre-mkt base), $55 (deal-risk discount floor). Resistance: $60, $65, $73 (deal price ceiling).
CATALYST: Multiple compounding catalysts — S&P 500 index inclusion effective June 22 (forced index-fund buying still working through); Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly endorsed MRVL as the “next trillion-dollar company”; $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia confirmed; Teralynx T100 AI switch (102.4 Tbps) launched. Analyst upgrades: Stifel raised PT to $350, BofA raised to $365. Micron’s AI demand print independently validates MRVL’s AI networking TAM thesis.
WHY IT’S MOVING: RVOL 6.49× is the highest relative volume reading on the entire scanner — institutions are aggressively buying MRVL on the Micron-driven AI re-rating. The S&P 500 inclusion creates persistent structural demand as passive funds continue to build positions. Jensen Huang’s “next trillion” endorsement is not a throwaway quote — it carries the same weight as Nvidia’s QCOM/ARM partnerships. The $242B market cap still implies ~4× upside to the “trillion” target, making this a multi-year growth story with near-term technical momentum.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor near $275–280. ATR of $27.24 implies a day range of $260–300 is conceivable on high-conviction days. Bias: Strongly bullish. Key breakout level: $280 (pre-mkt resistance) — a 5-min close above on RVOL ≥3× is the entry trigger. 20-day MA est. ~$255 (well below, price extended but justified by catalyst stack). BofA PT $365 = +32% upside from current levels.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $270 (pre-mkt base), $260 (ATR pullback zone). Resistance: $280, $300 (psychological), $321 (prior Stifel PT), $350 (new Stifel PT), $365 (BofA PT).
WYCKOFF: Stage D/E markup — S&P 500 inclusion + Jensen endorsement = institutional demand floor. Classic upward phase on multi-catalyst.
CATALYST: Multiple stacking catalysts: Apple domestic foundry partnership confirmed June 18 (Intel manufacturing Apple-designed chips under US government support for domestic semiconductor production); BofA raised PT to $160 from $135, reiterated Buy; 18A-P advanced process node entered risk production June 16. INTC is up 250%+ in 2026 as the foundry turnaround story gains institutional credibility. Today’s +5% gap rides the Micron-driven AI chip ecosystem lift — a rising tide for all semiconductor names.
WHY IT’S MOVING: The Apple deal is the single most credible validation that Intel’s foundry business can attract marquee customers. Apple historically does not partner with second-tier suppliers — this is a Tier 1 endorsement. BofA’s $160 target (vs. $131 current) implies 22% upside from today’s price. The 18A-P node at risk production means commercial-scale yield improvement is the next catalyst. Intel beta of 3.07 makes it the highest-beta name in the Top 5 today — in a +2.09% NQ day, that’s a feature, not a bug.
KEY DAILY PRICE LEVELS: VWAP anchor near $130–132. ATR $9.77 implies a $122–140 daily range on a big move. Bias: Bullish. Key breakout: $133 (pre-mkt high) — 5-min close above opens path to $138–140. 18A-P risk production news created the June 22 BOS on daily chart. Prior resistance at $128 is now key support. BofA PT $160 = ceiling target.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE: Support: $128 (prior resistance now support), $125 (ATR pullback zone). Resistance: $133, $135, $140, $145, $160 (BofA PT).
WYCKOFF: Stage C re-accumulation breakout — Apple partnership is the spring event that launched the markup. Multi-month bull structure intact.
Research Themes
⚡ The Micron Moment — AI Memory Supercycle Confirmed
Micron’s Q3 FY2026 print — $41.5B revenue (4× YoY), $50B Q4 guidance, $100B in take-or-pay contracts, HBM4 sold out — is the definitive confirmation that the AI memory supercycle is structural, not cyclical. Every AI chip, data center, and infrastructure name benefits from a confirmed demand anchor of this magnitude. SK Hynix’s planned $29.4B US IPO is the second signal — AI memory suppliers are mobilizing maximum capital to meet demand they cannot currently satisfy at any price.
🔨 Qualcomm’s AI Pivot — Beyond the Handset
QCOM’s Investor Day delivered a credible, numbered roadmap for AI diversification: $40B in non-handset revenue by 2029, the Dragonfly C1000 data center CPU targeting hyperscalers, and the $3.92B Modular AI acquisition adding a software inference layer. This is the most significant strategic pivot by a major semiconductor company since AMD’s EPYC launch challenged Intel’s server monopoly. The named partnerships with Meta and Microsoft provide near-term revenue visibility that no amount of analyst modeling can replicate.
🚀 SpaceX as AI Platform — Orbital Compute
SPCX is not just a rocket company or a satellite internet provider — SpaceX is building an AI compute platform in orbit. AI1 satellites with onboard compute units are planned for late 2027, with incremental compute capability being added to existing Starlink broadband and mobile satellites before then. The $89B bond demand at current prices gives institutional validation of the equity floor. Bond settlement June 26 removes the final IPO-related technical overhang, making this the cleanest entry window in the post-IPO lifecycle.
Secondary Movers
Session Playbook
⏰ Pre-Market (Now → 9:30)
- Monitor PCE print at 8:30 ET — do not enter before release
- Track QCOM, MRVL, INTC for any pre-mkt fade toward VWAP
- Note SPCX opening price vs. $161 pre-mkt high as first trigger
- Watch NQ futures for reaction to PCE — soft print = green flag
- Avoid TECH (TECH is M&A arb; enter on confirmed opening range)
🌎 Open Drive (9:30 → 10:15)
- QCOM: Long above 5-min opening range high on RVOL ≥2×
- MRVL: Long above $280 on first 5-min close — ATR $27 gives big range
- INTC: Long above $133 pre-mkt high; stop below $128 support
- SPCX: Long on reclaim of $161 — target $165 / $170 / $175
- CRWV: Secondary — long on $100 hold or break of $104
- Avoid TECH unless spread compresses to <20% discount to $73 deal
🎯 Late Morning (10:15 → 12:00)
- Trim 50% of winners at 1× ATR from entry; let runners work
- Watch for 10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment print as secondary catalyst
- If NQ flags (3+ red 5-min candles), tighten stops across all names
- AXTI and RKLB for secondary entries if primary names extended
- Do not add to losing positions — today’s winners should be green by 10
The Days Ahead
Overnight Intelligence
🌐 Global Futures & Asia/Europe Overnight
- Nikkei 225: Lifted on Micron AI earnings beat — semiconductor names surging across Asia
- KOSPI: SK Hynix (NVDA supplier) rallying on HBM demand confirmation; planning $29.4B US IPO
- Hang Seng Tech: Positive carry from Micron; AI hardware names lifted broadly
- STOXX 600: Merck KGaA (Bio-Techne acquirer) active; European markets mixed
- FTSE 100: Modest gains; Iran deal lowering energy costs = tailwind for UK industrials
- DAX: Tech-weighted, positive; Merck KGaA acquisition announcement a domestic story
📊 Commodities, Rates & Geopolitics
- WTI Crude: $69.47 (−1.24%) — Iran peace deal progress pulling oil back to pre-conflict levels
- Brent: $72.62 (−1.52%) — confirming geopolitical risk premium unwind
- Gold: $4,002.20 (−0.16%) — risk-on mode reducing safe-haven demand marginally
- Silver: $57.94 (−0.98%) — following gold lower; industrial demand steady
- 10Y Treasury: ~4.40% — holding elevated; market awaiting PCE data at 8:30 ET
- US-Iran Peace Talks: Meaningful progress reported; energy risk premium compressing
- JPMorgan sees positive year ahead, flagging “flash crash” risk from algo concentration
- VIX: 16.41 — declining from 17.67 prior week; fear fading as AI earnings confirm demand
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.