TRDX Daily US Market Briefing
BEARISHupdated 6:25 AM PT (pre-market snapshot · published 12:05 PM PT)
Sector Heatmap
Market Bias
- Futures −8: S&P −0.32%, Nasdaq-100 −1.32%, Dow +0.34%. The Dow being green is rotation, not risk appetite.
- VIX 0: 17.52 is in the 15–20 band. It’s up roughly 4% though, and it’s back above its equilibrium zone.
- Newsletter tone −7: Bloomberg says “AI stock rout accelerates”, CNBC leads with “ROI on AI”, and Cramer is asking whether it’s “too early for a crescendo sell-off”. All of it is bearish on AI and hot on inflation.
- Stocktwits −3: Chart Art reports the “fifth loss in seven sessions” and that “CoreWeave’s bond scare cracked the debt-funded AI trade.”
- CNN Fear & Greed 0: I couldn’t get a reading this morning, so it’s scored neutral.
Overall Economic Summary
Two forces are hitting at once: an inflation shock and an AI-credit scare. Wednesday’s September CPI came in at 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, the 66th straight month above 2% per CNBC. This morning’s PPI was worse: headline +1.3% m/m against +0.5% expected, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022, and 6.3% y/y. Core PPI was +0.7% against +0.3% expected. Retail sales beat at +0.8% (cons. +0.3%), though the control group was soft at +0.1%. Empire State jumped to 25.5. Claims stayed tight at 199K. Put together, that’s a hot, resilient economy with no reason for the Fed to ease. CNBC Pro notes that traders are now betting on two hikes or a 50 bp move in December. Fed Chair Warsh speaks tonight at 11:30 PM ET.
The AI trade is cracking on financing, not on demand. CoreWeave fell more than 15% Wednesday as its 2032 bond yields pushed toward 16% and its CDS blew out past 1,000 bp. Oracle CDS widened to 288 bp. D.A. Davidson’s Gil Luria said CRWV equity “is going to be zero” if AI spending slows. TSMC printed a record quarter: EPS of NT$29.43, up 68.7%, and Q4 revenue guidance of $52.3–54.3B. It still fell about 2% pre-market. When a great print gets sold, I read that as a positioning problem, not a fundamentals problem. The Kospi fell more than 7% overnight and SK Hynix is down another 6–7% in U.S. pre-market. Cramer called the Korea selling “the tail wagging the U.S. AI trade dog.”
On the macro side, money is going to havens. Treasuries are rallying hard (10Y down about 10 bp to 5.05%), gold is near $4,178 (+1.3%), and the dollar is softer. Oil stays elevated: WTI is about $96 after two ships sank in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries. For sectors, I’m leaning short semis/memory, neoclouds, AI hardware and high-beta crypto proxies. I’m avoiding longs in Staples, Healthcare and REITs, which are acting as the parking lot. The risk events are the 12:00 PM EIA crude report, Hammack at 4:30 PM, Warsh at 11:30 PM, and tomorrow’s October monthly opex.
Market Sentiment
Key Market Stats
Economic Calendar
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 | PPI MoM (Sep)Actual 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | HIGH |
| 8:30 | Retail Sales MoM (Sep)Actual 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.3% | HIGH |
| 8:30 | Core PPI MoM (Sep)Actual 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | MED |
| 8:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoMActual 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | MED |
| 8:30 | Retail Sales Control Group MoMActual 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.2% | MED |
| 8:30 | Initial Jobless ClaimsActual 199K | 200K | 198K | MED |
| 8:30 | NY Empire State Mfg (Oct)Actual 25.5 | 10.3 | 7.6 | MED |
| 8:30 | Philadelphia Fed Mfg (Oct)Actual 20.9 | 28.4 | 37.8 | MED |
| 8:30 | PPI YoY / Core PPI YoYActual 6.3% / 5.0% | 5.3% / 4.4% | 5.6% / 4.8% | LOW |
| 10:00 | Business Inventories MoM (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.8% | MED |
| 10:30 | EIA Natural Gas Storage | 76 Bcf | 85 Bcf | LOW |
| 11:00 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | 3.6% | 3.6% | MED |
| 12:00 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (API showed −11.1M) | 0.2M | −3.186M | MED |
| 12:00 | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | — | 0.382M | MED |
| 16:30 | Fed Hammack Speech | — | — | MED |
| 23:30 | Fed Chair Warsh Speech | — | — | HIGH |
Today’s Earnings
This was a sixth straight quarter of record profit. Q3 revenue of $46.7B beat the guided $44.6–45.8B, and TSMC guided Q4 to $52.3–54.3B. The stock is still down about 2% pre-market near $420. The beat is being sold, which tells me AI-semis positioning is the problem. I’m watching whether $400 holds.
It was a record quarter, but NIM and revenue guidance went to the low end. It’s −4.6% pre-market on 5.7× relative volume. I’m reading it as a sentiment gauge for retail brokerage (HOOD, IBKR tonight).
NII and fee revenue both topped estimates, and the stock is up about 2% pre-market. The call is at 11 AM ET. Bank prints have had a chilly reception this week (BAC −5% Wednesday).
Sales were weaker than expected, and the stock is down about 15% pre-market at $44 (Finviz short scan). It’s outside the trader profile and at the edge of the −15% gap filter, so I’m not trading it. It’s a labor-demand read-through.
After SCHW’s guide-down, I’m watching account growth and DARTs. A clean beat could steady HOOD and COIN after hours.
I’m watching aluminum pricing against energy-cost inflation, and tariff commentary.
This is a freight-cycle bellwether. Diesel costs remain elevated, per CNBC, so I’m watching intermodal volume and margin commentary.
These are the remaining large caps reporting pre-market: regional banks (PNC, USB), Prologis (warehouse demand and data-center pipeline), Marsh, Ericsson and Wipro. None of them are in my growth profile, so they’re context only.
Key Events Today
CRWV’s 2032 bonds yield about 16% and its CDS is above 1,000 bp. Oracle’s 5-year CDS is 288 bp, up from 260 a week ago. This is the epicenter of the AI unwind. If credit keeps widening intraday, every neocloud and AI-hardware name follows.
Hammack warned last week that consumers may be accepting high inflation as a “fact of life.” After a 1.3% PPI print, a hawkish tone could push December hike odds even higher.
This is the high-impact event of the day, and it lands after the close. It sets the tone for Friday’s opex session. I want to be flat or reduced on swing shorts going into it.
API showed an 11.1M-barrel draw. Two cargo ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries (a fire at Ryazan). An oil spike feeds straight back into the inflation narrative.
Halftime Report and Closing Bell air live from San Francisco. Expect a lot of AI-bull guests talking up the dip. Headline bounces are short-entry opportunities if VWAP rejects.
Q3 revenue reportedly reached $16.8B, up 45% q/q, and Anthropic says it’s adjusted-profitable. That growth is slower than the 146% Q1→Q2 jump, and the market is treating the deceleration as one more AI-trade worry.
Top 10 Movers
BEARISH regime, so these are short setups only. All ten pass the 8 filters (price $5–500, PM vol ≥100K, 10-day avg vol >500K, float >5M, gap −2% to −15%, ATR >$0.30, common stock, PM RVOL ≥1.25×). They’re ranked by catalyst quality, then growth-sector alignment, then gap size and relative volume. PM price is prior close × pre-market change. Avg volume is derived from 1-day volume ÷ 1-day RVOL (~est.). Moving averages weren’t in today’s data feed, so I’ve used gap-fill, round-number and ATR-projected levels. Confirm MAs on your chart.
“Rocket Lab Stock Falls as Neutron Debut Slips to 2027.” The first Neutron launch moved from Q4 2026 to 2027 after manufacturing defects (voids in the carbon-composite propellant dome). TD Cowen thinks it could slip to Q2 2027 or later. Clear Street cut its PT to $105 and KeyBanc to $100.
It’s a hard, company-specific negative catalyst in a strongly preferred sector, on the biggest gap of the day, landing on a tape that’s already selling high-beta growth. It’s also coming off a −7.8% day Wednesday. Space peers SPCX and ASTS are weak in sympathy. This is the cleanest regime-aligned short on the board.
VWAP anchor: pre-market VWAP about $53.3 ~est. Expected opening range: $51.50–$54.00. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $3.91 projects to about $48.6 on a 1-ATR extension. Bias: SHORT below VWAP; a failed pop into $54 is my entry trigger.
Support: $50.00 (psychological round number), $48.57 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $54.00 (PM high area / Benzinga $53.62 print), $59.18 (prior close, full gap fill).
A markdown phase looks to be starting after a sign-of-weakness break below the September base.
“CoreWeave’s brazen dream crashes into reality as yields top 15%” (Bloomberg). CDS is above 1,000 bp, and D.A. Davidson’s Luria said “the equity value is going to be zero” if AI spending slows. Bernstein reiterated Sell, while Deutsche says buy the dip.
This is day two after a −15.5% collapse, and the credit market is driving the equity. Options desks saw heavy “bubble put” buying. CRWV is the poster child of the debt-funded AI build-out, so it’s the epicenter name for today’s narrative.
VWAP anchor: about $62.5–63.2 ~est. Expected opening range: $61.00–$64.50. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) ~$6 ~est. Bias: SHORT on a VWAP rejection. Be careful near $60: Cramer flags the late-July blow-up lows just above $60 as a likely bounce zone.
Support: $60.00 (late-July “Situational Awareness” lows), $57.00 (~1 ATR extension ~est.). Resistance: $63.15 (Benzinga print / VWAP zone), $65.78 (prior close, gap fill).
Neocloud contagion from the CoreWeave credit blowout. “AI stock rout accelerates” (Bloomberg). NBIS is following through on Wednesday’s −10.1% drop.
It’s the closest peer to CRWV in capital-intensive GPU cloud. Institutions are cutting exposure across the whole neocloud basket, and 2.17× 1-day relative volume yesterday confirms distribution.
VWAP anchor: about $177 ~est. Expected opening range: $171–$181. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $16.11. Bias: SHORT below $180.
Support: $170.00 (round number), $160.00 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $180.00 (round / PM high ~est.), $186.01 (prior close, gap fill).
It’s a double hit. It’s a neocloud pivot name caught in the AI-credit unwind, and Bitcoin is retesting $80K after the hot PPI (“Bitcoin Retests $80,000,” TradingKey).
It has the highest pre-market share volume among preferred names. It fell −12.2% Wednesday on 1.86× volume, so this is a continuation gap with liquidity. Both of its narratives (AI compute and crypto) are pointing down.
VWAP anchor: about $29.0 ~est. Expected opening range: $28.20–$29.60. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $2.69. Bias: SHORT below $29.
Support: $28.00 (round number), $26.17 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $30.00 (round number), $30.56 (prior close, gap fill).
Benzinga: “AXT Inc fell 6.8% to $57.40 in pre-market trading after declining 5% on Wednesday.” It’s caught in the chip selloff led by the Kospi (−7%) and SK Hynix (−6.9%).
It’s a small-float chip-ecosystem name with a big ATR, so it amplifies sector moves. The memory and compound-semi complex is de-rating despite TSMC’s beat.
VWAP anchor: about $58.0 ~est. Expected opening range: $55.50–$59.50. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $6.55. Bias: SHORT below $60. Expect wide swings, so size down.
Support: $55.00 (round number), $51.00 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $60.00 (round number), $61.59 (prior close, gap fill).
Chip stocks are extending the sell-off pre-market: NVDA −1.6%, AMD −3%, MU −4.5% (CNBC). AI-capex financing fears hit custom-ASIC suppliers to hyperscalers directly.
At 3.99×, it has the highest pre-market relative volume of any preferred-sector name, which points to institutional selling. It’s following through on Wednesday’s −8.7% drop.
VWAP anchor: about $236 ~est. Expected opening range: $228–$240. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $15.80. Bias: SHORT below $240.
Support: $230.00 (round number), $218.22 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $240.00 (round number / ORH ~est.), $245.28 (prior close, gap fill).
AI data-center optics are being sold with the hardware complex after Dell’s “biggest one-day loss in more than a year led a group of data center equipment stocks into the red” (CNBC).
It’s high-beta (2.7) momentum unwinding. It fell −11.8% Wednesday and is gapping lower again. Optics peers LITE (−5.2%) and COHR (−5.0%) are confirming sector-wide pressure.
VWAP anchor: about $82 ~est. Expected opening range: $79–$84. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $9.50. Bias: SHORT below $84.
Support: $80.00 (round number), $72.00 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $84.00 (ORH ~est.), $86.22 (prior close, gap fill).
BE trades as an “AI power” proxy, so data-center financing fears mean slower fuel-cell orders. It’s following Wednesday’s −9.2% drop. Rising rate-hike odds hit long-duration growth multiples.
It’s very high beta (4.3). The AI-power basket (BE, OKLO, FPS) is red together on the Finviz short scan, which signals coordinated de-risking of the whole AI-infrastructure theme.
VWAP anchor: about $227 ~est. Expected opening range: $219–$232. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $19.67. Bias: SHORT below $232.
Support: $220.00 (round number), $205.34 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $232.00 (ORH ~est.), $239.34 (prior close, gap fill).
“US September PPI Far Exceeds Expectations… Bitcoin Retests $80,000” (TradingKey). CME BTC is at 80,550 and printed a bearish 1D trend on my chart, with the 82,015–84,415 resistance zone overhead.
Rate-hike repricing hurts leveraged BTC treasuries most. Crypto proxies are red across the board (COIN −2.6%, CRCL −5.1%, HUT −7.4%, BMNR −4.6%). A break of $80K on BTC is the trigger for acceleration.
VWAP anchor: about $139 ~est. Expected opening range: $135.50–$141.00. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $8.60. Bias: SHORT below $141, keyed to BTC holding under $81K.
Support: $135.00 (round number), $129.75 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $141.00 (ORH ~est.), $143.24 (prior close, gap fill).
Dell “had its biggest one-day loss in more than a year, leading a group of data center equipment stocks into the red” (CNBC). Concern over AI-capex financing hits server vendors first.
It’s following through on Wednesday’s −8.4% drop. With beta at 3.0, it’s a clean liquid vehicle for the AI-hardware short. The tight ATR makes it easy to size.
VWAP anchor: about $34.4 ~est. Expected opening range: $33.60–$35.00. 20/50/200-day MA: n/a in feed. ATR(14) $2.39. Bias: SHORT below $35.
Support: $33.00 (round number), $31.84 (PM −1 ATR). Resistance: $35.00 (round number / ORH ~est.), $35.78 (prior close, gap fill).
Research Themes
The market has stopped asking whether AI demand is real and started asking who pays for it. CRWV bond yields near 16%, Oracle CDS at a record 288 bp and Dell’s worst day in a year all say the debt-funded build-out is being repriced. Until credit spreads stabilize, I treat every bounce in the neocloud and server basket as a short entry against VWAP.
TSMC printed a record quarter and raised its outlook, and the stock still fell. The Kospi dropped more than 7% and SK Hynix sits below its $149 IPO price. When the best print in the group gets sold, positioning is too heavy. Memory and optics have the highest beta to the unwind, and that’s where I’m looking for continuation shorts.
With PPI at +1.3% m/m and CPI at 3.7% y/y, traders are pricing two hikes or a 50 bp December move. That hits long-duration, no-earnings growth and leveraged BTC proxies hardest, while gold (+1.3%) and defensives (XLP +1.85%) absorb the flows. A BTC break below $80K is my signal to press crypto-proxy shorts.
The Days Ahead
| Date | Event / Description |
|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 | Import/Export Prices · Industrial Production · Monthly OpEx 8:30 ET import prices (cons. +0.8%), 9:15 ET industrial production (cons. +0.4%), 2:00 PM budget statement, 4:00 PM TIC flows. October monthly options expiration could amplify pin and volatility after Warsh’s late-night speech. |
| Mon Oct 19 | Earnings season rolls on Week-two Q3 reports begin. Watch AI-capex commentary after this week’s credit scare (schedule ~est.; confirm on the calendar). |
| Tue Oct 20 | Netflix (NFLX) earnings First print after the 6% layoff memo. Co-CEO Sarandos said growth is “not as fast as I want.” |
| Wed Oct 21 – Thu Oct 22 | Mid-week earnings & Fed speakers Heavy big-tech and semis-adjacent reporting usually starts in week two. I’m watching Fed-speak for a hawkish pivot after the CPI/PPI double beat. |
| Late Oct – Early Nov | FOMC (Oct 27–28 ~est.) · possible SpaceX–Tesla merger proposal · Nov 3 midterms Barclays sees a SpaceX/Tesla merger proposal in late Oct or early Nov. Gas and diesel prices are a midterm flashpoint (Bloomberg Big Take). |